PHOENIX – Mesa Mayor John Giles, a Republican who supported Kamala Harris for president, is frustrated by the disconnect between the two countries. Arizona presidential race and what happens on the ballot.
Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake, an aide to Donald Trump, has lost a significant portion of the former president’s voters to Democratic challenger Rep. Ruben Gallego, according to polls.
“Donald Trump has a Teflon that makes no sense to me. Kari Lake is literally saying the same thing as Donald Trump and people are turning a blind eye. And when Donald Trump says that, they clap,” Giles said in an interview. “I can’t—there’s no rational explanation for it.”
This disconnect captures a unique dynamic in the Arizona battleground state: A back-to-back Senate race and several ultra-competitive House elections operate in their own mini-universe, largely separated from and apart from the presidential race. A ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution did not give a clear impetus for their hopeful Democratic candidates.
Instead, a mix of ticket splitting, shifting party coalitions and candidate conflicts are driving races in what has become the top swing state in this historically Republican stronghold.
Two Republican congressmen in the House of Representatives are aiming to defend a pair of Democratic former state legislators. Seven-term GOP Rep. David Schweikert is trying to challenge Amish Shah, a physician, in the blue Phoenix suburbs after winning by less than 1 point in 2022. And in the Tucson area, Republican freshman Juan Ciscomani has a rematch with Kirsten Engel after earlier winning by less than 2 points.
Arizona has two highly competitive House races
Both of these House races are considered “tosses” by nonpartisans Cook Political Report WAmy Walter. One thing operatives of both parties agree on is that they will come down to a quartet of candidates, not the strength of the presidential or Senate candidates.
“All four have different personalities,” said a Democratic operative who works on House races, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Whoever wins these races is because the voters chose someone, not just following the top of the ticket.”
Democrats say Gallego’s strength doesn’t automatically boost their candidacy, while Republicans say Lake hasn’t been an albatross for them. Democrats argue the abortion ballot initiative will help turnout, but admit they still have work to do to convince voters that GOP candidates are a threat to legal abortion.
“Since 2018, Arizonans have been one of the most complicated ticket splitters in the country,” said a GOP strategist who works on House races, and in 2022, Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters won Schweikert and Ciscomani despite losing both of those districts. “The races are on their way, and that includes ballot initiatives. You can see a voter vote for Trump-Gallego-Schweikert.”
“I wonder what they’re thinking,” joked the operative. “But the surveys show that they do exist.”
Trump’s team also saw the lake underperform.
“The main thing to note is that President Trump is not riding on other people’s coattails, and he is his own candidate,” said one Trump campaign official, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about Lake’s struggles. “It’s a different race.”
The ongoing national realignment adds another layer of mystery to Arizona. Democrats are attracting more white college graduates in the suburbs, a key voting demographic, causing some concern within the GOP.
“The political environment for Republicans is worse than it was in 2020 in a few suburban districts, namely Omaha and all of Arizona. This concerns three valued officials: [Nebraska Rep. Don] Bacon, Ciscomani, Schweikert,” Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Foundation, a GOP super PAC, wrote in a memo to allies obtained by NBC News.
But Democrats also face the threat of losing a slice of Latino voters, particularly men without college degrees, who could help Republicans build primary ground elsewhere.
Gallego said that as a Latino male veteran, his background gives him an edge with the voters Harris may be fighting against. He said moderate Republicans who previously supported the late Sen. John McCain is also “part of the key” to a statewide victory.
Some voters with active partisan preferences will not split their votes.
“I’ve been a Republican all my life. I’m actually voting straight for the Democratic ticket for the first time in my life,” former GOP state lawmaker Roberta Voss said Thursday at a roundtable with Gallego in the Phoenix area. “One yardstick for me: Did Trump endorse you? I don’t have a vote. That’s it. it’s simple.”
Individual dynamics show that no single issue will decide the race: Republicans focus on issues like crime, border security and inflation, while Democrats use their advantages on health care, abortion and protecting Social Security.
In another wrinkle, new request The poll, commissioned by the nonpartisan Inside Elections, found far-right GOP Rep. Eli Crain underperforming Trump by 10 points in his red district, suggesting at least some rural or Native American voters are open to splitting their ticket. Crane, a former president of the Navajo Nation, is favored against Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez.
One theory of the Trump-Krane split: The freshman lawmaker could pay a price to join seven other GOP lawmakers. ousting former Speaker Kevin McCarthy mid-session last year.
“I think Eli Crane silenced some Republicans who were upset that he took out McCarthy,” said Marson, the Arizona Republican consultant. “So now there’s a Navajo running against him, which is going to piss off Native American voters. And that could spell trouble for Eli Crane.”