For David Tasker, 18, a construction worker in Pennsylvania, his top financial priorities are having enough money for gas, eating out and spending on his girlfriend while living at home with his parents.
But he is worried about the soaring prices he saw in his teenage years as he became an economy experiencing decades of high inflation. For his first election, he said he would vote for former President Donald Trump, citing concerns about higher spending and the broader economy.
“Trump can run America like a business, and Kamala runs it like a classroom,” Tasker said. “Trump would care about how Americans can get the most money, how we can take care of the most people and put America first.”
Pollsters and social scientists are shifting further to the right politically as the economic outlook of young people like Tasker, seen as a solidly Democratic group less than two decades ago, has taken a downward trajectory, especially among those without a college degree. While the economy was a key issue for many voters, it was particularly salient to those concerned with broader cultural ideals about young men and their place in society and those seeking to provide for their families.
“The economic and employment picture for young men without a college degree is significantly worse than it was for previous generations,” said Dan Cox, director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Center for the American Life Survey, whose research focuses on young adults. “These kinds of traditional norms about masculinity and what it means to be a man and a husband are wrapped up in economic success, and that makes it really, really difficult when their economic outlook is not so bright.”
Economic concerns among young men are both current and generational. Those without a college degree, adjusted for inflation, earn less and are less likely to work full-time than generations before them, according to data from the Pew Research Institute.
At the same time, women gain. A larger share of women aged 25-34 work full-time – 67% today compared to 55% in 1993. according to to Pew data. Almost half of young women have at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to 37% of young men.
“It’s a huge economic fact that lies behind a lot of the sense of cultural dislocation among men, of not knowing if you really need it or of feeling like you’ve failed against a set standard. years ago about the position of men and women in the labor market.
Reeves said his research suggests that feelings of economic and social dislocation may lead to higher suicide rates and more widespread substance abuse among young men.
“It’s a very, very difficult and painful transition right now between some of our cultural expectations about the role of men and the economic reality on the ground,” he said.
“Sign of Strength”
A different economic landscape for young men and women is likely contributing to the growing political divide, the researchers say. Young men are moving away from the Democratic Party, with 33% now identifying as Democrats, compared to 42% in 2020. according to Polling among 18- to 29-year-olds by the Harvard Institute of Politics.
While the poll found Vice President Kamala Harris to be the preferred candidate among both young men and a majority of women, and gaining support from both groups, the shift in support for the Democratic candidate among young women outpaced that of men. 70% of female voters aged 18-29 said they planned to vote for Harris, while 53% of male voters in that age group said they preferred Harris. This compares to 2008, when Barack Obama won 66% of the youth vote.
Trump is trying to capitalize on this discontent by trying to blame high inflation on the policies of President Joe Biden and Harris over the past four years. He also promised to bring back manufacturing jobs that could disproportionately benefit working-class men by imposing tariffs of up to 20% on imports. There are economists he said such tariffs would lead to widespread inflation and supply chain disruption.
“There is a perception that the economy was doing better when Trump was president. I could pay the rent, things were generally better in terms of my finances,” he said. Melissa Deckman, CEO of research firm PRRI, who has written a book about the politics of Gen Z. “For young men, it’s perhaps more attractive. more so than for young women, because young women vote based on the economy, but also based on social issues.”
The Trump campaign has also sought to appeal to ideals of masculinity, with everything from ripping off Hulk Hogan’s shirt at the Republican National Convention to targeted messaging in areas popular with youth like Zyn nicotine pouches and cryptocurrency.
Obama went on the campaign trail this week to endorse Harris, where he pushed back on some of Trump’s efforts.
“I’m sorry, gentlemen, I’ve noticed that, especially in some men who see some of Trump’s behavior — violence and putting people down — as a sign of power,” Obama said at a rally in Pittsburgh. “I’m here to tell you: that’s not real power. It never happened.”
Childless and still living at home
How the day-to-day economy looks to many young men is starkly different from other demographic groups, as they are less likely to feel the impact of some key issues on the campaign trail, such as the cost of prescription drugs. , child care or mortgage interest. Instead, more of their income goes toward rent, food and entertainment, and student loan debt.
Finance has been one of the biggest pressure points for young men higher rentIt has increased by about 20% since 2020. About two-thirds of young people say they spend more than 30% of their monthly income on housing, and about a quarter say more than half of their income goes to housing. Bank of America.
According to the survey, this led to around 30% of 18-25 year olds continuing to live at home with their parents. By Intuit Credit Karma. According to a Pew survey, young men are more financially dependent on their parents than young women, with 74% of women considering themselves mostly financially independent compared to 62% of young men.
According to economists, the difficult financial situation is causing this younger generation to postpone major life events. Among adults aged 18-24, only 7% are married in 2023, compared to 18% 30 years ago. According to a Pew survey, 33% of 18- to 29-year-olds have at least one child in the family, compared to 59% in 1993, and they are delaying having children.
The Biden administration has introduced policies that may disproportionately benefit young working-class men, such as spending more than $1 trillion on new infrastructure and incentives that have fueled a wave of investment in electric vehicles and semiconductor manufacturing. Harris proposed a number of initiatives that could improve the lives of these young people, such as seed money for start-up businesses and home down payment assistance, as well as greater access to mental health services.
But those initiatives may be tempered by a sentiment that researchers hear among young male voters that they feel less visible or unwelcome on the left as Democrats increasingly emphasize programs to help other groups, such as women or members of the LGBTQ community.
“What I’ve seen and heard is that they’re certainly not welcome on the left,” Reeves said. “I think it’s a sign of a failure on the part of the left and the Democrats, more specifically, to acknowledge and address the issues of boys and men and make them feel represented and seen and heard across the aisle.”
‘More business professionals’
In an NBC News focus group, nearly all of the young men who leaned toward Trump cited the economy and inflation as top issues.
“Look what our parents could get for $10,000 back then,” said Derek, a Trump-leaning focus group participant from Wisconsin. “I tried to buy a house two years ago and I went through the same difficulties you went through. Nowadays, you have to earn $150,000 to buy a standard three-bed, two-bath house.”
At a Trump rally in Pennsylvania, 18-year-old Sam Lilley, still in high school, said he plans to vote for Trump in his first election as an eligible voter. According to him, one of the biggest financial problems for him is the price of gas. Gas prices are averaging $3.34 per gallon in June 2022, down from $5.00 and $3.96 a year ago. Before the pandemic, gas averaged $2.60 a gallon.
“Gas is so expensive, it’s ridiculous. I drive a truck, so I only get 16 miles per gallon,” said Lilly, who currently works at a restaurant and eventually wants to work as a welder or auto mechanic. “I have to drive to a school that is 20 minutes away from my house to work 30 minutes from that school to another school that is 20 minutes away. That’s why I use a lot of gasoline.”
He said he thinks Trump will handle the economy better than Harris.
“I think he goes and uses his emotions more than his brain,” Lilly said. “I like that Trump is more of a business professional on this and uses his brain to think and solve issues.”
While Lilly says he’s committed to voting, turnout is typically relatively low among young men, and researchers say they see a lack of enthusiasm for either party in the group, in terms of who they vote for or whether they vote at all.
“It’s not a done deal,” Cox said. “I think a lot of these kids will probably stay home. Some of them might willingly vote for Harris. I think Trump will do better with young men than with young women—the difference will be quite significant in terms of voter support—but I don’t think Trump will win a large majority. I think this is impossible.”