RENO, Nev. – As union workers prepared to knock on doors in support of Sen. Jackie Rose on a sunny Thursday afternoon, the Nevada Democrat assured them that their hard work would pay off.
“These gym shoes will wear out over the next 26 days … and on election night, you’ve helped me and whoever else you’re helping, take back the Democratic majority in the United States Senate!” Rosen said to cheers from workers packed into the Culinary Union hall in Reno.
Democrats need to win Nevada and hold on to other perennial battlegrounds to keep their slim Senate majorities as they also try to shake off losses or regain GOP-held seats in redder states.
While Republicans don’t need to win Nevada to flip the Senate, the state could help dictate the size of the GOP majority. And it could determine whether the Senate will be at the mercy of a few moderates, or whether a larger and bolder Republican majority will rule. Operatives from both parties expect the race between Rosen and Republican Sam Brown, an Army veteran, to tighten in recent weeks as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris also battle for the state’s top six seats. election votes.
Before addressing the Culinary Union, Rosen told NBC News that voters have a “clear choice” in the Senate race.
“I think Sam Brown is too extreme, and I want to continue to be a bipartisan senator who deals pragmatically, gets results for Nevada,” Rosen said.
Republicans believe they have advantages on issues such as the economy and cost of living.
“Voters continue to feel the pain at the gas pump and grocery store, but Sam’s plan resonates with working families and the momentum is on our side,” Brown campaign spokeswoman Raegan Lehman said in a statement, pointing to Brown’s support for the policies. Repeal of taxes on tips and Social Security benefits, which Rose also supports.
A ‘missed opportunity’ for the GOP?
On paper, Nevada looks like a ripe Republican target.
Two years ago, Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won re-election by less than 8,000 votes, sealing her party’s majority. President Joe Biden won the state by just 2 percentage points in 2020. Hillary Clinton carried Nevada by the same margin in 2016.
Along with voters’ concerns about prices and the economy, Republicans also see an opportunity among Latino voters who are drifting to the right. Voters saw Rose as a relative unknown as he constantly drifted in and out of Nevada.
But there is Brown left behind trailing Trump in most public opinion polls. Last request from Cook Political Report with Amy Walter It found Brown to be particularly low on Trump among Latinos and independents. In 2020, Latinos made up 17 percent of Nevada voters. Unregistered voters in both parties have increased since 2020 and now make up the largest share of the state’s active voters.
Some Republicans worry that it may be too late for Brown to close the loophole.
“It’s a massive missed opportunity,” said one Nevada Republican, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about party strategy.
“The issue was there. There was an unknown candidate there,” said the operative, referring to Rosen. “Trump is clearly polling very strongly here, he can win. Meanwhile, you have a Senate candidate on the ballot outside the presidential race. This is simply the result of a bad campaign.”
Brown’s campaign has not been active enough on the campaign trail, and he has been unable to fight off the barrage of Democratic attacks by winning the attention of the free media on his own, the operative said.
Brown had no public campaigning ahead of Trump’s rally in Reno this week. participation is expected. The campaign did not make Brown available for an interview, despite numerous requests.
“Sam is a grassroots leader whose schedule is packed from morning to night meeting with supporters and constituents across Nevada,” Brown campaign spokeswoman Lehman said in a statement. “He is without a doubt the hardest working candidate in Nevada, and he has taken the time to build relationships with constituents that Jackie Rose completely abandoned.”
Other Republicans noted that the early jamming of Democratic ads made Brown’s appeal difficult.
Since the June primary, Democrats have spent $57.7 million on ads in the state, compared to $37 million for Republicans, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact. Rose’s campaign alone spent $19 million on ads, while Brown’s campaign spent $4.4 million. Meanwhile, the top Republican fringe groups don’t currently have a big ad campaign planned, though the Senate GOP campaign arm is partnering with Brown to air some ads.
Zac Moyle, former executive director of the Nevada Republican Party, said Republicans knew early on that it would be a tough race, so they “chose a very safe candidate who is a solid, world-class American.” Brown served in Afghanistan and suffered severe burns after his car drove over an explosive device.
“But it proved to be exactly what it was: an uphill battle,” Moyle said.
While it’s unclear whether Brown can catch Trump, operatives from both parties expect the Senate race to tighten in recent weeks, especially as Brown unites Republican voters who support the former president.
“He’s behind Trump and that’s what we need,” said Anita Henson Sanchez, a retired teacher and Republican who supports Brown, who attended a volunteer event for the Trump campaign in Las Vegas this week.
A democratic balancing act
As Brown embraced Trump, Rosen had to balance Harris while stressing her disconnection from her party.
In it first television commercialRosen said he “won’t toe the party line.” Rosen skipped the Democratic convention this summer, but he campaigned with Harris at his first Nevada rally as the party’s presumptive presidential nominee. Rosen said Harris’ rise to the top of the ticket led to an increase in volunteer and voter registration.
“People feel hopeful and energized,” Rosen said.
Biden struggled in Nevada, particularly among young voters and Latinos. While Harris has provided a boost of energy, he dodged questions about how his approach would differ from Biden’s, aside from recently appointing a Republican to his Cabinet.
Asked if Harris would have to stand out from the president more to win Nevada, Rosen said: “The race is between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. It’s me versus Sam Browne.”
“He’s his own man,” Rosen said afterward. “I think he understands who he is and how he’s trying to make the dreams of most Americans a reality.”
With the state’s presidential race looming, Democrats are optimistic that Rosen is in a strong position to win a second term as he tries to determine the race early.
Rosen aired his first television ads in April targeting Latino voters in both English and Spanish.
“I’m a Mexican woman, an immigrant, and she understands all the problems we have,” Culinary Union campaign director Silvia Buanrostro said at Thursday’s event, pointing to Rose’s support for abortion rights, infrastructure and lower drug prices.
Rosen also started television commercial He attacked Brown before winning the primary, labeling him “another MAGA extremist trying to take away abortion rights.”
Democrats have focused their attacks on abortion, even though he has said he would not support a federal ban on abortion. So does his wife, Amy In an interview with NBC News, she announced that she had an abortion Before meeting Brown.
Brown used parts of that interview TV commercialshowever, those ads stopped running at the end of August, according to AdImpact.
But Democrats have pointed to Brown’s past record on the issue, including his previous support for an abortion ban in Texas. Brown also recently suggested he opposes a statewide ballot initiative enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution. audio obtained by the Nevada Independent.
Rosen stressed that the issue is important to Nevadans, as voters often cite the high cost of living as a top concern.
“Nevada is a very pro-choice state, and one-third — one-third — of American women do not have access to reproductive health care,” Rosen said. “And it’s not just a women’s issue. It’s one of the many issues that we’re going to talk about – cost cutting, housing, all of that… I believe this is a really important issue in our country, and I don’t want to see any more women die and no more doctors or nurses trying to save their lives. I don’t want to see him imprisoned.”