Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, political reporter Allan Smith looks at how Elon Musk could help (or hurt) Donald Trump’s campaign. Plus, national political reporter Steve Kornacki breaks down the different paths to victory that Kamala Harris and Trump are trying to chart in Pennsylvania.
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Elon Musk is stepping in as Trump’s surrogate — but it’s unclear how he’ll land
By Allan Smith
Former President Donald Trump’s first rally in Butler featured one of the most iconic and viral images of his entire political career: a bleeding Trump, having just survived an assassination attempt, secretly raised his fist in the air beneath an American flag. Service agents escorted him off stage.
The most prominent photo of the former president come back on saturday it wasn’t even about Trump. Billionaire philanthropist Elon Musk stood up on stage before he was given a chance to address the rally participants.
The contrasting images helped paint a picture of both the benefits and harms of having Musk in Trump’s corner. musk, the richest man in the worldcould boost Trump’s bid with vast resources and an ability to command attention superior to other surrogates. On the other hand, this attention can often be the result of actions that voters find appalling and that the former president and his campaign find unhelpful.
Musk’s speech at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania over the weekend was the culmination of a years-long slide to the right for the eccentric billionaire, accelerated by his 2022 acquisition of Twitter. In recent months, he regularly they spread conspiracy theories about election fraud and undocumented immigrants and even the federal emergency response to Hurricane Helene.
Speaking from the stage, Musk introduced himself as “Dark MAGA” and ominously warned that if Trump loses, “this will be the last election.”
“That’s my prediction,” he said. “Nothing matters.”
Musk tried to support Trump and other GOP candidates behind the scenes through America PAC. takes a large piece from the former president’s attempts to vote. After appearing in western Pennsylvania, Musk began offering people $47 if they successfully won a swing state voter Sign a petition supporting the First and Second Amendments.
Musk also plans to track down Trump during the final month of the campaign, according to a source familiar with the effort. It confirms an earlier report by Politico.
Overall, Musk is viewed more negatively than favorably by the public polling: September NBC News survey showed him with a net approval rating of -11. But Musk polled slightly better with men under 50 — the main group Trump is targeting — and with men overall, the only subgroup where his numbers are above water.
With the numbers looking unfavorable around the world, it may be difficult for Musk himself to bring more voters on board the Trump train. But the combined influence of the social media site he owns and operates and an increasingly powerful PAC could have him jumping for joy in November.
Dasha Burns contributed reporting.
🔀 In the hallway: Meanwhile, Dasha Burns also reports that Musk called Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat on Kamala Harris’ running mate, during Sunday’s Steelers game to talk about investing in the Pittsburgh area. More →
Trump and Harris see two different paths to victory in Pennsylvania
By Steve Kornacki
The paths to victory seen by each campaign in Pennsylvania’s most important battleground, it’s clear where some of the big names will be over the next two days.
The mission for Donald Trump is to expand support with the state’s growing Latino electorate and regain the ground he ceded to Joe Biden in the blue-collar northeastern part of the state.
The first of Trump’s two stops in Pennsylvania on Wednesday will be in Reading, a city of about 100,000 that has the state’s largest concentration of Latino residents. It is the largest of a number of towns in eastern Pennsylvania.Latin belt“,” The rapid growth of the Hispanic population – and the Trump GOP is marked by political growth.
Trump’s goal is not to win Reading, which remains a deep blue town. But after he emerged as the face of the Republican Party, he turned a slightly lighter shade of blue. Barack Obama won 64 points in Reading in 2012, and Biden won 45 points in 2020.
The move away from Democrats came as the share of Latinos in the city’s population increased from 37% in 2000 to 58% in 2010 and 69% in 2020, according to the US Census Bureau.
National polls point to Trump With Latin America, it has been going further since 2020. Another giant bite from the Democratic lead in Reading and cities like it would go a long way toward reversing Trump’s 80,000-vote loss in Pennsylvania four years ago.
Trump’s second stop on Wednesday will be Scranton, the blue-collar heartland of northeastern Pennsylvania. Scranton is the seat of Lackawanna County, a longtime Democratic stronghold that Obama won by 27 points in 2012 but swung decisively to Trump in 2016 when Hillary Clinton took him by just 3 points. Biden, a Scranton native, won some ground for Democrats in 2020 by carrying the county by 8 points.
Lackawanna is whiter (82%) than Pennsylvania as a whole (74%), and the share of its white population without a four-year college degree (69%) also exceeds the statewide average (63%). Its median income ($63,739) is also about $10,000 below the statewide figure. Demographically, these are indicators of electoral success for Trump.
On the Democratic side, Obama is set to campaign for Kamala Harris in Pittsburgh, the state’s second largest city, on Thursday. Former Republican Liz Cheney will boost Harris in Montgomery County, a suburb of Philadelphia, on Wednesday.
These developments can be seen as part of the Democratic strategy to maximize support in the geographically compact but densely populated states, where they have won the most seats under Trump. In fact, of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania, there are only five counties where Biden did at least 5 points better in 2020 than Obama did in 2012 — and Montgomery and Allegheny (where Pittsburgh is) are two of them:
All of these counties have a significantly higher share of white voters with a four-year degree than Pennsylvania as a whole, and all have higher median incomes than the statewide figure. These were indicators of the electoral success of the Democrats during the Trump era.
Even higher support and turnout in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia suburbs (and several other pockets of the state with suburban characteristics) will give the Harris campaign a chance to offset potential Trump gains elsewhere and keep the state in the Democratic column.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 🌀 Hurricane preparation: Biden postponed his trip to Germany and Angola this week as Hurricane Milton is expected to hit Florida. Harris also criticized Trump: is extraordinarily irresponsible ” for spreading misinformation about hurricane relief. More →
- 📕 Book report 1: According to a forthcoming book by Bob Woodward, Trump has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin seven times since leaving the White House, including this year. More →
- 📕 Book report 2: Former first lady Melania Trump revealed her support for abortion rights in a new memoir released Tuesday. More →
- 📺 On air: According to AdImpact, anti-trans ads criticizing Harris are the two most-viewed Trump ads during pro and college football games. More →
- 🎥 Prime time view: After facing criticism for not participating in media interviews, Harris faced a series of tough questions in an interview with CBS News’ “60 Minutes” on Monday. More →
- ⚖️ SCOTUS Clock: The Supreme Court has signaled it will support the Biden administration’s move to regulate “phantom gun” kits that allow people to stockpile lethal weapons at home in violation of existing regulations. More →
- ⚠️ Election Alert: US intelligence officials said foreign adversaries will try to cast doubt on the results of the election after November 5 by making false claims or spreading their own disinformation. More →
- 🗳️ Downvote Ballot Update 1: Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy says in newly surfaced audio that the Republican Party needs to do a better job of winning over young women who have been “indoctrinated” on the abortion issue for years. More →
- 🗳️ Ballot Update 2: Democrats are seeking to stoke fears about GOP candidate Bernie Moreno’s Colombian family and heritage in the Ohio Senate race, accusing Republicans of racism. More →
- ☑️ There is a call: Members of the NBC News Decision Desk detail how they determine when they can project winners on election night. More →
- Watch live from the campaign trail →
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