WASHINGTON — Republicans will hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives next year, Democrats flipped a last-place seat in California, leaving GOP leaders with less margin for error as they try to advance President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda.
Democrat Adam Gray defeated Democrat John Duarte California’s 13th District rematch Weeks after the votes are counted, NBC News projects in the Central Valley that Republicans have won 215 of the 220 House seats for Democrats in the 2024 election. If all Democrats vote, the GOP could lose just two votes on the legislation in the House next Congress. opposition, giving them little wiggle room for absences, infighting and vacancies.
Duarte said Turlock Journal On Tuesday evening, he called Gray to confess.
Gray’s victory gave Democrats one seat in the House of Representatives, while Republicans traded eight seats held by Democrats, nine seats held by Republicans in mostly blue states.
The 13th District is one of only three Democratic pickups in California, with Democrats Derek Tran and George Whitesides. Defeated GOP Rep. Michelle Steele and Mike Garcia. Democrats too Three locations have changed in New York and one in Oregon, and they won one seat each in Alabama and Louisiana thanks to new congressional maps in those states.
Republicans won three seats in North Carolina, according to the state’s new congressional map. They also defeated two Pennsylvania Democrats, Representatives Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright, as well as Democratic lawmakers in Alaska and Colorado, and they flipped open seats in Michigan.
Campaigns and outside groups have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on House races, with more than $1.1 billion spent on ads between September and Election Day alone, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Democratic campaigns and groups outspent their GOP rivals in the fall, with $662 million in advertising spending in House races to $485 million for Republicans.
A slim GOP majority underscores the close House fight this year, with operatives in both parties acknowledging that the recent redistricting process has narrowed the field by creating less competitive races. Just over 40 seats — about 10% of the chamber — were decided by less than 5 percentage points, according to NBC News Decision Desk data.
While Democrats lost the House, Senate and White House, they saw their down-ballot candidate do better than Vice President Kamala Harris.
In House races, vulnerable Democratic incumbents lead Harris by an average of 2.7 points, according to a preliminary analysis by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shared with NBC News. The analysis also outperformed Harris in states where Democratic candidates in competitive districts had lower levels of education and a majority of registered voters were people of color.
Johnson’s difficulties
Republicans, who control all the levers of power in Washington, will have a rare opportunity to pass key policy priorities in the new year through budget “reconciliation” — a secretive process that allows the GOP to sidestep filibusters and fast-track legislation without a single Democratic vote. Senate.
But because of how fragile the House majority is, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. — is expected to be re-elected to the top job by his colleagues next month — and Republicans will face obstacles in getting the reconciliation package to the finish line.
Trump and Republicans view the reconciliation package as a means to renew the tax cuts Trump signed in 2017, which expire next year. Other provisions that could be included are a tax exemption for income from tips — what Trump called “no tax on tips” — and lifting limits on state and local tax deductions.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally on the Appropriations and Judiciary committees, is urging his colleagues to use the reconciliation to pass border security legislation as Trump promises to get to work.The largest deportation program in American history.”
Compounding Johnson’s math problem is Trump’s selection of two House Republicans for his Cabinet: New York’s Elise Stefanik for US ambassador to the UN and Florida’s Mike Waltz for national security adviser.
Republicans are also expected to start another lawmaker in the new Congress shortly.
Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned from the House last month after Trump picked him to be the next attorney general; Gaetz withdrew his name from the discussion amid allegations of sexual harassment. Gaetz said he does not plan to run for the next Congress even though he won re-election.
If Stefanik and Walz resign at the same time, Johnson could only serve with a one-seat majority: 217 to 215.
The Florida Department of State has already done this announced the special calendar of the elections To replace Gaetz and Waltz with a primary in maroon seats set for Jan. 28, followed by a special election on April 1.
After Stefanik resigns from Congress, Democratic Gov. Cathy Hochula has 10 days to call a special election in New York, which must take place 70 to 80 days after the announcement. according to state law.