WASHINGTON — After the president-elect Donald Trump swears next year US-China relations is shaping up to be one of the biggest foreign policy challenges for the new administration.
In recent years, relations between the world’s two dominant superpowers have been fraught with legislators across the political spectrum. He took a tougher stance against Beijing. According to experts, the direction in which these relations will go now will depend on the extent to which Trump follows through on his promise to punch. China with sharp tariffs — as well as how strongly influenced by advisers who think the U.S. should face China more than trade.
Tariffs 2.0
Trump rattled global markets this week by saying he would impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods during his term in office, starting with higher tariffs. Goods from Canada and Mexico. During the campaign, he imposed tariffs of at least 60% on China some economists have warned It could lead to higher prices for American consumers.
Josh Kurlantzick, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said steep tariffs “would certainly scare off investors and have a big impact on the stock market.”
Experts say the tariffs could also trigger another “trade war” with China, mirroring Trump’s first term, when Washington and Beijing slapped a series of retaliatory tariffs on each other.
“What’s going to happen is that the U.S. is going to impose tariffs, and then China is going to impose tariffs in a lot of places that really matter to Republicans,” Kurlantzick said.
On Tuesday, Trump said his nominee for U.S. trade representative is Jamieson Greer, who helped implement the Chinese tariffs during Trump’s first term as chief of staff to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
Analysts have warned that the consequences of the tariffs could extend beyond the economy, potentially affecting national security and health issues.
Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said steep tariffs could make Beijing wary of cooperating with the United States on joint issues, such as a crackdown on precursor chemicals for fentanyl.
“If the Chinese as a whole suffer from 60% tariffs, their willingness to cooperate in other areas of the relationship is dramatically reduced,” O’Hanlon said.
Chinese embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said in response to Trump’s tariff announcement on Monday. he said “Nobody will win a trade war.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping He told President Joe Biden this month He expressed his readiness to work with the incoming Trump administration and hoped for stable and constructive relations. But in his message to Trump, he highlighted four “red lines” in China’s relations with the United States: Taiwanpromoting democracy and human rights, efforts to undermine the ruling Chinese Communist Party, and limit China’s development.
Asked for comment on the future of US-China relations, Liu pointed to comments made this month by China’s ambassador to the US, Xie Feng, who said China has “no plans to overtake or displace the United States.”
“We hope that the US side will also have no intention of containing or suppressing China,” Xie said, according to an embassy transcript.
Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the first six months of next year will be crucial in setting the tone for US-China relations. He said Trump and Xi should try to meet as soon as possible, citing what he described as Trump’s strong relationship with the Chinese leader.
Trump is not as engaged with China as he was when he left office four years ago. Although Xi, who began his historic third term in power The power that he further strengthened last year will be in the spotlight overcoming the economic slowdown this will be exacerbated by international instability.
However, at the same time, China has also made significant technological advances in key sectors electric vehicles and diversified its trade ties to become less dependent on its largest export market, the United States.
Chinese officials appear willing to work with the Trump administration to “find a way before things get worse,” Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, told NBC News. Interview during last week’s visit to Beijing, China.
But if Trump imposes excessively high tariffs or takes other measures, Beijing could “make things difficult for the United States as well,” he said.
That could mean retaliatory tariffs on agricultural and other U.S. products, investigations into American companies operating in China, restrictions on rare elements and other critical Chinese exports, or a weakening of the yuan to hurt U.S. trade.
Incoming White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt said Trump was “elected to stand up to China, impose tariffs on Chinese goods and make America strong again.”
Hawk Trump team
It is not clear how much Trump will be influenced by his advisers. Many of his picks so far are staunch critics of China, including Sen. Marco RubioR-Fla., for secretary of state; Rep. Mike WaltzR-Fla., for national security adviser; and Pete Hegseth for the secretary of defense.
Rubio championed a bill that would have authorized sanctions against officials accused of rights abuses in China. Hong Kong and China region Xinjiangis himself It has been sanctioned by the Chinese governmentif confirmed, it would be a first for the secretary of state.
His selection by Trump “has given some confidence to pro-democracy communities and the diaspora in China, as Rubio is known for his strong opposition to Beijing’s human rights abuses,” said Yaqiu Wang, research director for China, Hong Kong and Taiwan at Freedom House, a Washington think tank. He wrote in Diplomat on tuesday.
Waltz, who does not need Senate confirmation, called on the United States to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, citing human rights violations, Fox News host Hegseth told Fox News host Hegseth of China’s pursuit of global dominance.
Dan Blumenthal, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said Rubio and Waltz “have a very realistic and sober view of the challenges ahead with China, and in that regard, I think they will serve President Trump very well.” conservative think tank.
But Trump and his aides differ widely in their approach to China, including whether to ban the Chinese app TikTok, which Trump has previously supported. changes its position this year.
They may also differ over Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. Trump has angered Taiwanese officials by saying the island is not paying enough for its defense and accusing it of “stealing” business from the United States with its semiconductor industry.
Experts say Trump may be more operational than his more ideological advisers on China and Taiwan.
Wu said that Trump “still wants to get concessions from China, he wants to get benefits from China.” “But for these people, they just want to encourage separation. They just want to contain China and defeat China, or even cause a conflict with China.”
Chinese officials looking for friendlier intermediaries may turn to others in Trump’s orbit, such as the owner of Tesla Elon MuskHe has extensive business interests in China and often meets high-level Chinese leaders.
“There’s a lot of hope here that it can be a bridge and help keep things calm,” Kennedy said, although “I don’t know that it’s more wishful thinking than clear analysis.”
Megan Lebowitz reported from Washington, Jennifer Jett from Hong Kong and Janis Mackey Fryer from Beijing.