WASHINGTON – President-elect Donald Trump is set to begin his second term by sending the Senate away a non-traditional class of candidates for powerful executive positionsHe sees his victory in 2024 as confirmation of the voter’s desire to be disrupted.
But how much will be broken America’s “cooling saucer” endure?
The soon-to-be Republican-led chamber is already showing its limits by effectively sinking Trump’s pick. far-right ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida for the attorney general between allegations of sexual abuse and concerns about his qualifications.
The Senate will be split between 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the new session, meaning Republicans cannot lose more than three votes to confirm nominees without requiring some bipartisan support. A 50-50 tie could be broken by vice president-elect JD Vance.
There are nine key senators to watch in the race for the nomination.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine
The five-term centrist Republican is the only GOP senator representing a blue state. He has survived politically because he has been willing to cheat his party from time to time, such as when he voted on January 6, 2021, to impeach Trump on charges of sedition.
Collins is up for re-election in 2026 in a state Trump lost by 7 points, meaning he is sure to be a top target for Democrats. Trump’s Cabinet picks provide an opening for Collins to demonstrate his independence if he chooses to vote against his more controversial or radical picks.
An added dynamic for Collins: He’s about to become chairman of the powerful Appropriations Committee. That gives him the ability to cut bipartisan deals on government spending, but it could also deepen his loyalty to the party that elevated him to the coveted role.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska
Murkowski, a member of an endangered species known as moderate Republicans, will have significant leverage in the Senate when it comes to voting on some of Trump’s more controversial policies and nominees. Murkowski has already indicated that she will speak out against Trump’s Cabinet picks. he tells reporters On Gaetz’s choice: “I don’t think there is a serious candidacy for the position of attorney general. This is Lisa Murkowski’s opinion.”
Murkowski is also the rare Republican who supports the rollback of abortion rights protections included in Roe v. Wade, which could play a role in his votes on health care staffing and a potential new Supreme Court vacancy. And he’s not up for re-election in red Alaska until 2028.
Senator John Thune, RS.
The incoming majority leader isn’t anyone’s idea of an ultra-MAGA Republican, but he understands his mission: to advance Trump’s agenda. Thune will have to balance that with the institutionalist instincts that have won him respect on both sides of the aisle.
The nominations will be the first major test of his leadership style. Where does he turn to Trump? Where does he draw the line? Is he choosing to be a heat shield for members who want to quietly take on Trump without doing so publicly? And how does he manage his relationship with Trump?
The answers will set the tone for a long-awaited new era before the Senate GOP.
Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
McConnell is the latest free agent as he steps down as Senate Republican leader after a record 18 years. His disputes and disagreements with Trump have been well documented. As GOP leader, McConnell’s style was usually to read and follow the political winds within his party. He doesn’t need it now. He turns 83 in a few months and has two more years left in his Senate term. Cabinet nominees could be an opportunity to flex his muscles and use his voice to shape Trump’s agenda.
Will McConnell use his caucus influence and store of goodwill to say no to some Trump picks? Or will he make the mistake of agreeing to the wishes of the MAGA leader? He has offered one clue so far: McConnell was one of them, though he hasn’t said anything publicly. at least five Republican senatorsIncluding Collins and Murkowski, who have made it clear they will oppose Gaetz for AG.
McConnell is an outspoken Russia hawk, a staunch supporter of NATO and the post-World War II order that Trump plans to use in the coming years to fight isolationist forces entrenched in his “America First” agenda. As an example, how will he respond former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard’s pro-Russia viewsTrump’s choice for Director of National Intelligence?
Senator Thom Tillis, RN.C.
Tillis, who won the first two elections by less than 2 points, will be re-elected in 2026. He will certainly be a target for Democrats in an election year with several Senate sweeps. North Carolina is a tough state, even for a Republican — he needs to be re-nominated by a GOP base that can attract far-right figures and balance it by appealing to general voters in a purple state.
How close is Tillis to Trump in a cycle where, unlike in 2020, the president-elect won’t be on the ballot to pass him the coattails? Nominations will give a clue.
Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La.
Heading into the Trump presidency, Cassidy is expected to be front and center as chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. His committee is expected to consider the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be secretary of Health and Human Services (although the Senate Finance Committee will be tasked with reporting on the nomination to the full Senate). Cassidy, a doctor herself, kept her cards close when it came to her stance on the vaccine skeptic.
As HELP chairman, Cassidy will be knee-deep in any discussions about the future of health care policy, including Medicare and Medicaid.
He is up for re-election in 2026, and his vote to impeach Trump for inciting a rebellion in the impeachment trial, as well as any infighting over the candidates, could play a role in whether Trump chooses to back Cassidy or a potential primary challenger.
Sen.-elect John Curtis, R-Utah
Stepping into the seat vacated by outgoing Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, many are wondering whether Curtis will be more like the institutionalist senator he replaced or Utah Sen. Mike Lee. Trump’s ally. The answer may be something in between.
“He’s not Mitt Romney, he’s not Donald Trump. He has his own brand, and he made that very clear in his primary and general election,” said former GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo, R-Fla., He recently told NBC News.
Speaking during the primary debate in June, Curtis said of Trump: “I’m not going to give him an unqualified yes to anything he wants.”
Curtis has already made his presence known by joining a special resistance against Gaetz. But Gaetz was the first real test for Senate Republicans in Trump’s second presidency, raising the question: Will Curtis scrutinize Trump as Romney has in both candidates and politics?
Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa.
Fetterman made a name for himself in the halls of the Capitol for his bold, unfiltered communication style (and how he dresses). But Fetterman also created a unique personality broke with the left wing of his party — Despite the civilian casualties caused by the military campaign in Gaza, relentless support for Israel and “we have lost ourselves” when it comes to key issues such as immigration, in the words of the Democrats.
In a party currently engaged in some soul-searching, Fetterman’s voice could play a big role in that conversation for Democrats. And he said that he is ready to support some of Trump’s choices for positions in the Cabinet of Ministers. including for his former opponent Mehmet Öz in 2022, Administering Medicare and Medicaid.
“He’s going to choose people who don’t agree with me, and they’re never going to be my first choice,” Fetterman told NBC News. … I will not be part of the collective lunatics.”
Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga.
Ossoff is up for re-election in 2026 in a state where Trump just snapped a Democratic streak that coincided with the first senator’s 2020 re-election victory. He will likely be a prime GOP target for defeat in the next cycle. The executive nominees could give Trump some opportunities to show bipartisan bona fides, at least when it comes to his more basic choices.
The endorsement battles will also provide some early clues as to how Ossoff plans to position himself ahead of tough re-elections in Georgia, where Democrats will no doubt try to prove that their victories in 2020 and 2022 were no fluke.