Sat. Dec 7th, 2024

Democratic jockeying for the 2028 presidential election is already underway

By 37ci3 Nov16,2024



As the dust settles from Vice President Kamala Harris’ defeat of President-elect Donald Trump, Democrats are already scrambling to become the party’s next leader — shaping the opposition’s response to Trump’s second term and charting the party’s position in 2028. presidential primary.

Democrats who spoke to NBC News are eyeing about two dozen party figures, including a number of governors and several lawmakers who have created unique brands and attracted a national following, to see who can lead the party out of the future wilderness. .

In particular, the deep bench of Democratic governors up for election in 2018 and 2022 is far from President Joe Biden’s administration and has the possibility of taking on Trump with state executive power in the coming years — a move several potential candidates have already specifically taken. legislative hearings, launching new advocacy groups, and chest-beating.

Jared Leopold, a Democratic strategist and former top official at the Democratic Governors Association, noted that while Democratic governors running for president in 2020 are less well-known, potential 2028 candidates such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro, California Josh. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker “are all household names for many Democrats.”

“It will be key to see what the next year or two brings and what shape the Democratic party’s retreat to Trumpism takes,” said Leopold, who is working on Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s 2020 presidential campaign. “This will help determine who is in a position to take the party forward.”

“Governors have a better chance of passing this time than before,” he said. “And I also think there’s not going to be much to do in a deeper minority in the Senate. Therefore, it will be more difficult to pass the national stage.”

Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki said this time around, Democratic figures will see that “it’s not enough to exist in the Trump context,” putting a premium on those who can offer “proactive and positive advocacy” for the party and their positions.

“I think the ‘resistance’ in 2025 will look very different than it did in 2017,” Legacki said. “People are exhausted, money is low, things are getting dark. There isn’t an endless appetite for resistance content right now. So those who are actually interested in running will have to be more creative in terms of impact and visibility.”

The spotlight turns to the party’s high-profile governors

Newsom and Pritzker they are already using Trump as a foil. A few days after the election Newsom announced he would call a special session of the California State Legislature to “protect California values ​​and fundamental rights in the face of the incoming Trump administration.” Trump raised the plan with public condemnation, writing that “Governor Gavin Newscum is trying to stop all the GREAT things that can be done to “Make California Great Again.”

Newsom visited the White House on Tuesday and Capitol Hill on Wednesday to urge officials to protect some California priorities before Trump takes office, inviting the PAC’s email list to a Zoom discussion he’s holding for supporters.

Pritzker, who warned at a news conference two days after the election, “You’re coming for my people, you’re coming through me,” announced Wednesday a new initiative called Governors Protect Democracy with Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, himself a potential presidential candidate. .”

Billionaire Pritzker, whose fortune stems from his family’s ownership of the Hyatt hotel chain, has revamped the structure of the Illinois Democratic Party and spent millions on statewide abortion rights initiatives. He also chaired the Democratic National Convention in his home state this summer.

“I think the big question for the coming weeks and months is who will try to fight back against Trump 2.0 and who will try to come to terms with him,” he said. The rise of “resistance” to Trump’s first term.

Then there are two rising Democratic stars holding “blue wall” governorships. Shapiro and Whitmer both won big in 2022. Although both were pushed back by Harris’ losses in Pennsylvania and Michigan, their electoral records and popularity put them firmly on many Democrats’ presidential wish lists.

“I’ve had a front row seat to his leadership for the last six years,” Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said in a text message when asked about Whitmer’s potential 2028 run. “Even if people don’t agree with him, they love him. him. He has a unique combination of delicacy and grace — a worker who truly cares about people and doesn’t back down from a fight. He has what it takes to bring people together and lead our country.”

Whitmer, who is term-limited at Michigan, drew attention in March when he joked “See you in 2029” — before a wink — at a Gridiron Club luncheon in Washington, D.C. He has not publicly expressed interest in running for president after the 2024 vote.

And so it is for Shapiro, who spent the days after the election focusing on economic development efforts in his state. A spokesperson pointed to his post-election statement: “I know the pundits will be analyzing every aspect of this election, but I will continue to listen to the good people of Pennsylvania, respect their choices, and find ways to bring people back together and put the score on the board for all of us.” to bring the ball down the court.

Democrats who spoke to NBC News said Shapiro played well in the final months of the campaign after he was not selected as Harris’ aide, making headlines on his behalf with a busy campaign schedule. Multiple people who spoke to NBC News pointed to a New York Magazine article about Shapiro’s shutdown efforts, titled “Another Running Mate” highlights this dynamic.

“I think there’s a 100 percent chance he’s going to run for president,” said one Pennsylvania Democrat, noting Shapiro’s mix of state approval ratings, donor connections and public speaking skills in his strong battleground state. “I don’t see how he didn’t run away.”

“I would be very happy to be Josh Shapiro. But four years is a crazy eternity,” this person added. “I mean, my God, the 106 days we just lived felt like an eternity.”

A second Pennsylvania Democrat said Shapiro would be “under a lot of pressure” to run because “there’s a big gap right now.”

“And I think he’s going to tell everybody, ‘I have to watch the budget. I have to focus on getting re-elected. I’m focused on Pennsylvania,” the person added. “But I think he’s probably thinking about it.”

Of course, even if Harris loses to Trump, he could make a third bid for the White House After raising over $1 billion will weigh heavily on the minds of many Democrats.

Harris, on the other hand, was within a few state percentages of the presidency after just over 100 days in the race and battling the economic headwinds that have toppled incumbent parties around the world. Whether Harris is ready for another campaign is a different question, the top aide noted, and the answer will only come with time.

“We’re a week after the election,” the person said.

‘There’s a ton of people’

The list of Democratic presidential candidates is sure to be wider than the best-known governors and former vice presidents.

Swing state senators including Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Mark Kelly of Arizona will be able to celebrate electoral success in tough environments, with Ossoff front and center in one of the biggest races of the 2026 midterm elections.

Another upstart to watch, according to Democratic insiders, is Senator-elect Ruben Gallego, a 44-year-old Latino Marine veteran who won Arizona on the same ballot as Trump, pulling some distance from the national party on immigration and migration issues. other issues.

Others, like Connecticut’s Chris Murphy and Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman, seem interested in shaping a new Democratic approach on a myriad of issues. Murphy went viral last week by tweeting about how the party at X was “unrelated with a crisis of meaning/purpose fueling MAGA” idea worked on during the past year.

Fetterman, speaking at the end of the campaign on the show of the well-known podcaster Joe Rogan, could be in the front row changing the party’s relationship with key demographics. (Fetterman said no when asked if he was interested in running for president in the upcoming election, adding, “Never get your supply high.”)

Additional governors like Maryland’s Wes Moore and Kentucky’s Andy Beshard also look set to shape the party’s future years in the desert. 2020 candidates like Sen. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg could also give the national office another look.

Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, DN.Y. and Ro Khanna, D-Calif., are likely to be instrumental in shaping the future of the party’s progressive wing, and Khanna has made little attempt to hide his ambitions as he travels. The nation is on “listening tours,” including early states like New Hampshire — with another one soon.

“In a normal world, Gen Z should raise the AOC,” the former Democrat from Pennsylvania said before noting the generation’s shift to the right in 2024. he’s silent, but he’s great. And Warnock. There are a ton of people. Just – who does what? Who can get a viral moment?”

With voters in a bad mood and cynical about Washington, an outsider could also play a role, with many Democrats suggesting that Harris’ top surrogate, billionaire businessman Mark Cuban, or someone like him, could take the Democratic Party by storm.

“People with work experience have an appetite and an interest,” Leopold said. “So you can see a businessman like Mark Cuban running.”

Asked if he would be interested in running for president in 2028, Cuban told NBC News in an email, “No.” He gave the same answer to the question of whether he currently wants to run for office or thinks he would make a good presidential candidate.

Leopold said Democratic primary voters will first look for candidates who “stand up for our values ​​that will be in the wilderness for a few years” and that “work horses” will be valued more than “show horses.”

“My guess is that the 2028 cycle will be a lot like 2020 or 2004, where it’s a ‘Just win, baby’ cycle for Democrats,” Leopold said, referring to former Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis’ famous mantra. .

Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign manager Robbie Mook said, “First and foremost, Democrats will want to pick a winner. They will prefer charisma, scope and originality over purity.”

“I expect that candidates will have the courage to skip past organizing groups and media that want to make primaries available for litmus tests,” Mook said, “and instead choose tools and influencers that allow them to campaign on their own terms.”



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