China’s military has increased its provocative flights around Taiwan by 300% in the past five months, according to the commander of the US Air Force’s Indo-Pacific Command.
In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Gen. Kevin Schneider warned of a dramatic increase in People’s Liberation Air Force activity since the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president in May.
“Whether it’s entering the air defense identification zone or crossing the centerline within the Taiwan Strait, we’ve seen a 300% increase in these air activities since launch,” he said.
Between May 2023 and November 2023, China violated Taiwan’s air defense identification zone 335 times, according to figures compiled by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense by NBC News. During the same period this year, China violated the same airspace at least 1,085 times, three times more than the previous year.
Within a few months, the difference was more pronounced. For example, in July 2023, 50 Chinese aircraft violated Taiwan’s air defense zone. 210 in July 2024, more than four times.
China’s air force has maintained an increased level of activity since Lai Ching-ten was sworn in on May 20, Schneider noted. Beijing, which views A “separatist” and “troublemaker,” Lai claims democratically-ruled Taiwan as his territory, a view Lai and his government reject.
A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington defended the flights.
Liu Pengyu said: “The relevant exercises of the PLA are a necessary and legitimate step to put pressure on the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and their separatist activities, and to warn against outside interference and provocations.” This is fully in line with international law and common practices.
Schneider oversees more than 46,000 airmen in Japan, South Korea, Hawaii, Alaska and Guam. The biggest challenge he faces, he said, comes from Beijing, which has built up massive missile forces, air forces, submarines and cyber forces and uses those forces to intimidate other nations in the region.
“The behaviors that go along with that,” he said, “are violence, aggression.”
“My assessment is that this is a campaign of pressure designed to win without a fight, and I think it will continue to cost the world, physically or otherwise, to present a truth,” he said. “Not only to Taiwan, but to the world where Beijing can achieve its goals, and they continue to strengthen their activities, military activities, diplomatic activities, information activities, economic activities together to win without fighting.”
Will Trump defend Taiwan?
Chinese President Xi Jinping has said he intends to unify Taiwan with mainland China and has steadily increased military pressure on the democratically-ruled Taiwan. US intelligence officials said Xi had ordered his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
CIA Director William Burns made it clear that this does not mean Xi will be invaded in 2027, but “it is a reminder of the seriousness of his focus and ambition.”
US officials have pointed to 2027 as a possible tipping point for conflict between China and Taiwan, which now coincides with President-elect Donald Trump’s second term in office.
Trump has not committed to defend Taiwan during the Chinese military invasion.
“Taiwan should pay us for defense,” he told Bloomberg Businessweek in July. “You know, we’re no different than an insurance company.”
While Trump has repeatedly characterized the relationship as transactional, some top advisers in his first term have been among Taiwan’s staunchest supporters, revising the process of selling arms to Taiwan and increasing sales during the Trump administration. Taiwan. Both moves have heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing under President Trump.
It is unclear how President-elect Trump will work with President Xi over the next four years. But the two spoke after Trump won the 2024 election, according to the Chinese government, which quoted Xi as telling Trump he needed to find a way for the two nations to come together.
The current US official said that the relations between the two nations were marked by tension during President Joe Biden’s rule, but there has been progress in some areas in recent years.
“China certainly thought they were going to get back to better relations with the Biden administration, and they were very disappointed,” said a senior US official who follows Chinese politics.
General Schneider said the timing of possible actions in 2027 China is still unclear, but he warned that their behavior is becoming more aggressive and that China is moving further and further away from mainland China, both in the air and at sea.
Their goal is to push the US out of the region and develop its own military capabilities, which Schneider said Beijing learned from the US military’s military operations in the Middle East.
“We had the ability to take our time, get our forces into theater, build big bases, build up our capabilities, and then at the time of our choosing, the crowd advantage was in place. so that we can determine when we will go to carry out our operations,” he said. “I appreciate that Beijing recognized that and now they’re building that capability to prevent us from being able to do that and do it again.”
Gen. Schneider said adversaries in the region may try to test it in the early days of the new Trump administration. “Regardless of which party wins, that’s where the opportunistic side comes in, so actors in the region can challenge the new administration.”
“On the military side, it’s something we’re prepared for, and we continue to present options to our national leadership,” he said. “Either to avoid, or to deal with someone who will provide a test for a new administration early in your career.”
Ultimately, Schneider added, the US is still focused on preventing conflict in the region.
“We continue to prevent effectively. And for more than 80 years, the peace, relative peace and stability of this region has not been written by the presence of the United States military and our partners and allies, and we will continue to do so.” “If that peace, stability and security is unilaterally violated by anyone in the region, we will respond, and we will respond with an incredibly capable network of allies and partners.”