Tue. Nov 5th, 2024

Trump and Harris face a persistent gender gap heading into Election Day

By 37ci3 Nov5,2024



Notes on bathroom cabinets. Celebrities are on the way. While supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris are fighting for the possibility of secret ballots for Republican women, Liz Cheney is declaring that women will “save the day.”

For the second time in a decade, a Democratic woman is running against Donald Trump in the presidential race. And once again, the former president faces a persistent gender gap. It’s unusual for both Republican and Democratic presidential campaigns to target the same voters, but as the race narrows, both Harris and Trump have pulled out the stops to mobilize women.

Heading into Election Day, female voters are more likely to say they support Harris. with some questionnaires shows that the vice president has a double-digit lead. In an outside survey According to J. Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register, Harris beat Trump in Iowa, a state he won in 2016 and again in 2020. The shift is driven in part by women voters age 65 and older, who beat Harris by a two-to-one margin, according to the poll, which did not reveal how it affected party affiliation.

“Harris is showing a clear lead among women, the question tomorrow is whether it will be historic for the Democratic nominee,” said Scarlett Maguire, a pollster for JL Partners. “Indeed, we found that among undecided voters, Trump’s greatest hesitation to vote was due to concerns about what the conservative influence on his agenda would mean for women’s rights.”

Meanwhile, polls show Trump has built a solid lead among men. In particular, he tried to court young male voters by appearing on the popular All-in Podcast and other programs hosted by others. Joe Rogan; Nelk Boys; MIT-affiliated computer scientist Lex Friedman; and others.

Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway has a name for the phenomenon that goes both ways: “It’s a double gender gap.”

The gender gap is wide among both young and old voters. A composite of three recent NBC News polls conducted in July, September and October showed Gen Z men favoring Trump by 10 points (51% to 41%) over Harris, while Gen Z women favored Harris by more than 40 points. from 68% to 26%). According to the same polls, boomer men favored Trump over Harris 57% to 39%, while boomer women favored Harris 52% to 43%.

It’s not that Trump is ignoring women voters. The former president promised to be a “defender” of women in the election campaign, saying that he would save them from loneliness, danger and anxiety from “all the problems” that the nation is facing today.

Asked by NBC News over the weekend about his message to female voters considering voting for Harris, Trump told Harris that voting for Harris risks economic disaster: “You’re voting for the wrong person, and we’re going to put an end to that.” get depressed and you won’t be safe.’

Trump’s campaign is giving voice to female voters in the waning days of the race by hosting events featuring Lara Trump, her daughter-in-law and co-chair of the Republican National Committee; former NASCAR driver Danica Patrick; South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem; Morgan Ortagus, a former senior official in the first Trump administration, and others. On Monday, Trump invited Lara Trump and her daughter Tiffany on the stage on the eve of election day.

He also has a campaign Megyn Kelly announced on Monday that she would appear at Trump’s rally in Pittsburgh to explain herself to one-time enemies and campaign rivals. why vote for himThe appeal comes after Kelly expressed concern that her campaign was not gaining enough traction among female voters. Nikki Haley in a Wall Street Journal article published this afternoon calls Americans like him who “disagree 100% with Mr. Trump” may vote for Harris because he disagrees “almost all the time.” Trump and Haley have not been seen together on the campaign trail in recent weeks, despite much speculation.

It sounds like Trump occasionally missed the message as barnstorms in the final days of his campaign, he stormed the country and attacked his political opponents, including Cheney, whom he called a “radical war hawk” and a chicken hawk. rally last weekwondered how the former Republican would feel on the war front.

Final national An NBC News poll shows Even a small change in turnout can have different results for each party.

Questionnaire It shows Harris with 49% of registered voters and Trump with 49%. Only 2% of voters say they are undecided. The poll, conducted from October 30 to November 2, found that women supported Harris by 16 percent (57%-41%) and men by 18 points (58-40%).

Other results based on slightly different turnout scenarios offer a different picture of what the outcome of the election might be. In a slightly more favorable environment for Republicans — with more men to vote, as well as white voters and voters without a college degree — Trump wins over Harris.

A small increase in turnout among women voters, white voters with a college degree, and voters of color gives Harris a lead over Trump.

Trump’s campaign cites partisan turnout numbers as proof he’s built an early-voting lead. a memo In a release Monday, the campaign cited data from veteran Democratic political strategist Tom Bonier to argue that numbers among female voters are declining.

It’s hard to compare 2024 to 2020 because Covid messed up many voter experiences in the previous contest and Trump actively discouraged more mail-in voting than he did this time around.

When asked by NBC News why they thought the gender gap had disappeared, two Arizona voters, a Democrat and a Republican, both cited Roe v. He linked abortion rights found in Wade. campaign days.

“It exists because a lot of men don’t even think about who brought them into this world,” said Lala Johnson, a telemedia assistant who supports Harris.

“Well, reproductive rights has a lot to do with it, but I really don’t know,” said Ned McCarthy, 70, a Trump supporter.

The gender gap is not new. Almost every presidential election since 1980 saw the splithas shown that Democrats have been winning with women voters in recent decades. This was the case in 2016, when Hillary Clinton had a double-digit lead among women, and in 2020, President Joe Biden won over women voters.

If women come out to vote, the race is Harris’s to lose, a Democratic official said. As of Monday afternoon, women made up 53% of the nearly 77 million people who voted early or by mail. According to NBC News, men make up only 44%.

Meanwhile, a Trump campaign official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly, told NBC News that his feelings about the race remain “cautiously optimistic.” Two-thirds of voters support Trump’s view that the nation is headed in the wrong direction, that he has continued to dominate the economy and cost of living, and that he has a rosy assessment of his presidency.

Harris is ahead among Latino voters by just 9 points, 53%-44%, according to an NBC News poll, but the sample size is small and has a larger margin of error than the general poll.



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By 37ci3

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