When Election Day finally arrives, election officials, legal experts and researchers are bracing for a flood of misinformation and legal claims as the votes begin to be counted.
Legal experts said the final week of the campaign featured three dynamics that could lead to a protracted legal battle if the results are close.
Multiple lawsuits — many of them frivolous — have already been filed, domestic and foreign actors are spreading false information about voter fraud, and former President Donald Trump continues to claim the election was rigged against him.
“They’ve already started cheating,” Trump said at a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Sunday.
Election experts say that if a clear winner emerges quickly and voting continues without major interruptions, a large number of Americans may believe the results. But they warned that delays in counting votes or a tight race in which a single state would decide the presidency could lead to a divisive legal battle.
Experts predict that the longer the race remains unresolved, the more time local and foreign actors will need to spread misinformation that will cause doubt, discord and disagreement over the results.
Danielle Thomson, research manager at the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, predicted an increase in Election Day rumors “as more people go to the polls and face both real and perceived problems with voting.”
“The problem is when political actors or influencers take a real issue and deceptively inflate its impact or scope to show a larger coordination fraud or mass conspiracy.”
“We expect a strong focus on swing states, voting machines and voter eligibility,” he said.
Jennifer Liewer, an Arizona election worker, said she and her co-workers are prepared to vote and watch for any possible irregularities.
“The reality is that we have security officers monitoring to see if there are threats … that the appropriate people are aware of them,” said Liver, Maricopa County’s deputy director of elections.
But he admitted that he and his colleagues have no idea how the final chapter of the 2024 election will play out.
“We don’t know what will happen and how people will react when the results start coming out,” he said. “We hope they will trust the system.”
A flood of misinformation and legal claims
In Seattle, 25 researchers from the Center for an Informed Public will work shifts to document the rumors on and after Election Day. This is one of several large-scale academic projects still studying election disinformation – several prominent others have closed or weakened in response to the conservative attack on such research.
In published primersResearchers said they expected a steady stream of rumors throughout the day — potentially hundreds of videos, photos and statements depicting suspected irregularities, conspiracy theories or concerns Trump and his allies could present as evidence of voter fraud.
This election season has already been shaped by alleged online content voting machine malfunctionunfair ordering ballot papers and the stateless illegal votingas well as false conspiracy claims attracts the news media and other viral videos that must be disclosed by election officials and secretaries of state and federal agencies.
Conservative groups promoting election conspiracy theories have also expressed their intention to frame any irregularities or routine processes as fraud, such as longer count times in states that do not allow workers to pre-process mail-in or ballots.
The Election Integrity Network’s deceptive ad reads, “There is uncertainty” next to a news carousel covering such Election Day procedural issues. Cleta Mitchell, founder of the Election Integrity Network, promotes his group of a thousand people as a sort of “national neighborhood watch”.
The researchers also point to a new kind of infrastructure around the documenting and sharing of such rumors on election day. While in years past they were more likely to appear organically on social media platforms, this year official channels were established to move so-called evidence into channels where it could be used.
Videos are already flooding the channel promoted by Xi, especially X owner Elon Musk, a major Trump supporter, through the American PAC. The community, “dedicated to sharing potential voter fraud and irregularities facing Americans in the 2024 Election,” has more than 60,000 members and has already become the center of unfounded rumors.
The top posts in that community Tuesday included videos from political activists known for their deceptive content: including one from the Heritage Foundation claiming that voters were registered at illegal addresses in Maricopa County, Ariz., and James O’Keefe claiming that noncitizens voted in Philadelphia forward.
This public depository joins other existing clearinghouses that election deniers claim prove widespread fraud. Election conspiracy theorists, including MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell and True the Vote activists, have proposed programs to gather evidence against alleged fraud.
Beyond fear, experts expect voters, pollsters, influencers and operatives to turn this kind of content into lawsuits challenging the results.
“Election deniers are willing to grasp at the thinnest of straws and turn this into a federal case, both figuratively and literally,” said Ben Berwick, director of election law and litigation at the nonprofit group Protect Democracy. American elections.
Part of the effort to challenge the results of the 2020 election and midterm elections two years later, Berwick said, is based on testimony and statements from witnesses who say they believe they saw something illegal.
“In each case, it turns out that the person who signed the affidavit either misunderstood what they saw or, in some cases, it was actually fabricated,” Berwick said. “The claims in 2020 were dismissed in part because there was no evidence to support the allegations of any wrongdoing. I’m sure there will be an attempt to come to court with more quote-unquote evidence this time, right?
“Anything they can get their hands on that they can twist to make it look like some sort of conspiracy or fraud or even a mistake,” he said, “they’ll use anything they can get their hands on.”
Foreign interference and enhanced security
And foreign actors are spreading disinformation of their own and reinforcing false American claims. Monday night, officials from the FBI and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said. US intelligence has determined Two more fake videos created by Russia were designed to undermine American confidence in the election results.
“Russian influencers recently published and amplified a false article alleging that U.S. officials plan to commit election fraud using a range of tactics, including ballot dumping and cyber attacks,” the statement said. “Russian influencers also produced and enhanced a recent video falsely depicting an interview with a person claiming election fraud in Arizona.”
Agencies said a video that Arizona’s secretary of state has previously denied falsely portrayed a scheme to create fake overseas ballots and alter voter rolls in favor of Democrat Kamala Harris.
The Secret Service announced on Monday that it had installed additional fences around the White House, the Naval Observatory — Harris’ official residence as vice president — and the Palm Beach County, Fla., Convention Center, where Trump plans to speak on election night.
Twenty states also put nearly 250 National Guard soldiers on active duty to be available for election support. Troops are primarily activated as needed for cyber support, law enforcement, or general support.
Ahead of the election, Liewer, the deputy director of elections for Maricopa County in Arizona, said he was still hoping for the best.
“Tomorrow is working hard for us. Therefore, voters can come and vote in this election. Everything we do is for that,” he said. “This is what motivates us to ensure that this is done in a fair and transparent manner. This is what guides us.”