WASHINGTON – Americans are preparing to elect a new Congress as every seat in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are up for grabs on Election Day, with control of both chambers at stake.
Since 1992, every non-incumbent president has taken office with his party controlling both houses of Congress, but there is no guarantee that it will happen this year for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.
While it is up to the Senate to confirm the next president’s judicial and Cabinet nominees, the composition of both chambers will determine the fate of the legislative agenda. and basic invoices to pass.
Republicans are favored to win the Senate
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, but Republicans are favored to capture the majority. All of them are guaranteed to win open seats in ruby-red West Virginia with Democratic independent Sen. Joe Manchin retiring.
That seat alone would be enough for the GOP to control the chamber if Trump wins the presidency, in which case Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, would become vice president and cast the tie-breaking vote in the 50-50 Senate.
If Harris wins, Republicans will need an additional seat in West Virginia to capture the Senate. The party is also looking to flip Democratic-held seats in red Montana and Ohio, where Democratic Sens. John Tester and Sherrod Brown will again have to defy gravity in states Trump is expected to win easily. They face Tim Sheehy and Bernie Moreno, respectively, both of whom are heavily invested in the GOP.
And Democrats are defending five more seats in highly competitive purple states at the presidential level: Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania; an open seat in Michigan where Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring; Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin; Democratic independent Sen. Krysten Sinema will hold an open seat in Arizona, where she is retiring; and Sen. Jackie Rosen of Nevada.
Meanwhile, the Democrats’ best hopes of picking up the Republican-held seat are in Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz is running for a third term, and Florida, where Sen. Rick Scott is running for a second term.
In red Nebraska, populist independent Dan Osborne is running competitively against low-profile Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in what could be a surprise race.
A close fight for home
The race for the house is on a knife edge.
Republicans currently hold a 220-212 majority, with three vacancies — two in safe blue seats and one in safe red seats. Democrats will need to pick up just four seats to take control of the House, and with it the speaker’s gavel and the chairmanships of all committees.
The battlefield is narrow. According to Cook’s Political Report, there are 22 “throwback” seats at the center of the race — 10 Democrats and 12 Republicans. A few dozen other places are hotly contested, but leaning toward one party.
Notably, the blue states of New York and California are home to 10 ultra-competitive House districts. Those two states are expected to be easily won by Harris at the presidential level, but Republicans are investing heavily in holding and flipping seats there.
In New York, Republicans are pushing for a majority in the House of Representatives, defending the four seats they won in 2022. Those seats are held by Reps. Mark Molinaro, Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito and Brandon Williams, who are seeking re-election. D’Esposito and Williams’ districts were rated “lean Democratic” by the Cook Political Report because the party nominated Laura Gillen and John Mannion to try to take back those seats. Lawler’s race is billed as “lean Republican.” Meanwhile, Rep. Pat Ryan, D-N.Y., faces a tough challenge against Republican Alison Esposito in what is considered a “lean Democratic” race in the Hudson Valley.
At least five GOP incumbents in central and southern California also face tough re-election bids.
Freshman Rep. John Duarte faces Democrat Adam Gray in the 13th District; Rep. David Valadao has a rematch with Democrat Rudy Salas in the 22nd District; Rep. Mike Garcia fends off challenge from Democrat George Whitesides in 27th District; longtime Rep. Ken Calvert is trying to hold off Democrat Will Rollins in the 41st District; and Rep. Michelle Steele is competing against Democrat Derek Tran in the 48th District.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. and the man seeking to replace him, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., have spent recent weeks criss-crossing those key House battlegrounds, as well as many swing districts in Pennsylvania. Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and the Pacific Northwest.
The House Democratic campaign chairman expressed optimism during the opening of the polls Tuesday morning.
“We are in a very strong position,” Rep. Suzanne DelBene, D-Wash., told NBC News. “We have excellent candidates. We stand with the American people in politics in our message. We have the resources to get out the vote and communicate with voters across the country, and that puts us all in a very strong position today to take back the majority, take back the gavel, and make Hakeem Jeffries our next speaker. “
Still, he warned that the majority race could be close and it could take “several days” to count all the votes.
“We didn’t know tonight,” DelBene said.
Full plate
The new Congress will have to work with the new president right from the start.
The Fiscal Responsibility ActThe product of a deal between President Joe Biden and then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy extended the nation’s debt limit until January 2025. The Treasury Department would be able to avoid a catastrophic debt default immediately by using emergency measures to free up cash. a bilateral agreement is likely to be needed.
The Senate will spend the first part of the New Year confirming the president’s Justice and Cabinet nominees, as well as hundreds of other nominees for other political roles.
If the Republicans manage to take full control of the White House and Congress, they will be in the position of 2016 – with Trump back at the helm.
In that scenario, Republicans will have to figure out how to use budget reconciliation, a backdoor process that would allow them to fast-track legislation without Democratic support: Do they move forward with Trump’s next round of tax cuts first? Or do they try again to repeal or overhaul Obamacare like they failed to do in 2017?
Johnson, political fate depends on the outcome of the electionrecently announced that Republicans would go big and “mass reform” the Affordable Care Act if his party wins.
“The ACA is so entrenched that we need major reforms to make this work, and we have a lot of ideas on how to do that,” Johnson said at a campaign stop in Pennsylvania.
If Democrats can capture the White House and Congress, it would be a remarkable coup for a party facing one of the scariest Senate maps in modern times. It would give Harris’ aggressive economic agenda a fighting chance and push for legislation to codify abortion rights.