After the last voter in a state has voted and the polls are closed, the process of determining the winner begins. That’s when election day turns into election night, and each state begins to report its vote totals.
Some states, such as Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, report their ballots quickly, while others, such as Arizona, Nevada and California, typically take longer, a week or two, to tabulate most ballots. The patterns of how votes are cast in many states can make it difficult to tell who the winner will be in the middle of election night.
For example, the votes may be skewed towards a party at the beginning of the night, because only certain type voting information is provided first – such as the counting of mail-in ballots before any in-person Election Day voting. These patterns can create what are sometimes called “audio mirages.”
Read more election explanations from the NBC News Decision Desk
A sound mirage the current vote count is when the candidate received a higher percentage of the vote than he or she would otherwise have received eventually ending with a final score. Mirages can be “red” or “blue” depending on which side benefits – but the “appearance” is what really matters here, because like any other mirage, the voting mirage is fleeting and does not reflect the ultimate reality.
Factors that create voice mystery
In general, there are three factors that create sound wonders: geography, sound mode, and the way the charts are drawn.
Mirages can occur due to geographic differences in counties that report faster or slower. Small, rural counties or precincts report more quickly than large, urban ones because counting votes is simpler when there are fewer ballots to manage. Consequently, since rural voters are more likely to be Republican than urban voters, a red mirage can occur when a state’s vote count overrepresents rural areas at some point on election night.
Virginia is an example of a state that is usually a red mirage based on geography early on election night. That’s because Fairfax County, a highly populated Washington suburb where Joe Biden won 70% of the vote in 2020, tends to be one of the last counties in the state to report a majority of results. Until most or all of Fairfax County’s votes are reported, Donald Trump will likely have a higher percentage of the final statewide vote.
On election night 2020, Fairfax County reported the results of most of its ballots (about 375,000 votes) at 11:43 p.m. ET. That single report caused Trump’s statewide vote share to drop from 50.2% to 45.8% at the time. (That’s close to Trump’s final vote share in Virginia, 44%).
Another factor that can cause voice mirage is partisan differences by voice mode – mail ballots, early in-person votes, Election Day in-person votesetc.
Many states and provinces tend to report the results of each regime one at a time. This can lead to voting miracles if one party is more likely to vote using a particular mode than another. That was the case in 2020, when Democrats voted more by mail than Republicans and Republicans were more likely to show up on Election Day.
This difference led to the big blue mirage in North Carolina in 2020. In the first hour after the polls closed, most North Carolina counties reported mail-in and early in-person voting. Those votes were overwhelmingly Democratic, and as of 8:18 PM ET, Biden had 57.6% of the state count. But within the next three hours, the state reported a high vote on Republican Election Day, causing Biden’s share of the vote there to drop to 48.6%.
A third factor that can shape voting is more complex: differences in the way special modes of ballots are counted. This is most effective in states and provinces reporting postal ballot results in small batches.
Many polling places tend to count postal ballots in the order in which they are received, meaning that ballots returned by voters in mid-October will appear sooner than those received on polling day. If there are partisan differences between the earliest mail-in ballots returned and those returned later, it will create a voting miracle.
This is what happened in 2020 in Arizona. Mail-in ballots reported by Maricopa County (which accounts for 60% of the state’s voters) on election night include those returned by voters the weekend before Election Day. This resulted in a blue mirage because earlier mail-in votes were more Democratic than later ones.
The results of the postal ballots returned later were announced in the days after the voting day. With late mail-in ballots overwhelmingly Republican, Donald Trump’s tally rose from 46.8% at 3 a.m. ET on election night to his final share of 48.9% — just shy of Biden’s 49.2% .
Interestingly, Arizona’s pattern in the 2018 midterm elections was the opposite. Late mail-in ballots were more Democratic, and when they were added, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won the election by 2 points, trailing by 0.8 percentage points on Election Night.
What to pay attention to in terms of mirage in each state
The NBC News Decision Desk takes these odds into account when deciding to project a winner in the race. For example, if all the remaining uncounted ballots are expected to come from heavily Democratic states, we are less likely to predict a Republican winner in a state. Conversely, if a Democrat is ahead, we are less likely to make a prediction, but most of the uncounted ballots are expected to be strong Republican, in-person Election Day votes.
We are also cautious to assume that 2024 will follow historical patterns, especially given that the 2020 election was held during a pandemic, with voters more likely to vote by mail and social distancing affecting election officials’ tabulation of results. This year, the Trump campaign has also encouraged supporters to vote early, which may affect partisan differences across voting patterns.
Here are the specifics about the miracles we’ve seen in key swing states in the past and what could happen on election night this year.
North Carolina: It is likely that most mailers will be reported first, causing a blue mirage. In a change to this year’s election, in-person early voting ballots cannot be listed until polls close on Election Day. Personally, we expect early voting to begin at 8:00 p.m., half an hour after state polls close. However, as in-person voting is reported later in the evening, vote percentages will shift toward the Republicans.
Georgia: Most states will report in-person and mail-in ballots first, which could lead to a blue mirage before statewide results tip toward Trump as Election Day ballots are reported. After that, there may be a slight shift toward Democrats as late mail-in ballots from major metro Atlanta counties are reported. Unlike in 2020, Georgia counties are not allowed to stop the vote counting process until all ballots have been counted.
Pennsylvania: We expect the earliest reported votes to be dominated by mail-in ballots, including heavily Democratic Philadelphia and Allegheny counties, leading to an early blue mirage. Then, as in-person Election Day polls are reported, the blue mirage will turn red, and the results will turn more Republican than we expected in the final margin. Finally, these large counties (especially Philadelphia) will continue to count and report the remaining mail-in ballots. That would likely swing the race in the Democrats’ direction.
At 3 a.m. on election night in 2020, Pennsylvania’s results were about 7 percent more Republican than the final tally. At 3 a.m. in the 2022 Senate election, the red mirage was just over 1 percentage point from the last margin.
Michigan: We expect a bit of a red mirage in Michigan as smaller, more Republican seats make their votes count. The total number of votes will increase as smaller places report, and the size of the poll will decrease as large Democratic cities such as Detroit, Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor report. This year, Michigan voters can vote early in person for the first time in the general election, and clerks are now allowed to pre-process mail-in ballots, allowing for a faster count. Both of these changes could lead to differences in the voting report compared to what we have seen in previous elections.
Wisconsin: Most Wisconsin municipalities report all voting methods together. This creates a bit of a red herring because smaller, rural municipalities report more quickly.
A handful of large municipalities, including the city of Milwaukee, tabulate mail-in ballots centrally and report them separately from Election Day votes. The state will be in a red mirage until the heavily Democratic mail-in ballots from the state’s most heavily Democratic cities are reported. At 4:42 a.m. on election night 2020, Milwaukee reported that Biden had received 85% of the 168,000 mail-in ballots. That pushed Biden’s statewide total up from 47.3% to 49.3%.
Arizona: In 2020, about 70% of the state’s votes — mostly early in-person and early mail-in ballots — were reported in the first hour after the polls closed. That gave Biden a lead of more than 14 percent in a state he ultimately won by 0.3 points.
The size of the blue mirage shrank to about 3.5 points as polling on Election Day was reported to be in the next few hours of polling night. It continued to shrink after Election Day after pro-Trump mail-in ballots were reported to have arrived late. In the 2022 Senate race, the Democrat led by 19 points in the first hour and won by 5. But in the 2018 Senate race, the pattern worked in the opposite direction, with a Republican leading by 3 points and eventually losing by 2 points. score.
Nevada: Nevada, Clark County (Las Vegas) will experience a red mirage until further notice. In 2020, Clark’s first report came 90 minutes after the state’s first county reported votes. In 2022, this gap was only 10 minutes. Then, the first report in Clark could lead to a blue mirage that will shrink as private Election Day votes are tabulated across the state.
Late mail ballots will be reported in the days following voting day. In 2020, these ballots increased Biden’s lead from 0.6 percentage points to a final result of 2.4 points.