Heading into election week, one Democratic strategist described the mood in the party as “sickening optimism” that Vice President Kamala Harris will win, as polls show a stunningly close race against Donald Trump.
A campaign full of twists and turns will conclude on election day. Harris and Trump are locked in a dead heat in seven battleground states scattered across the northern Great Lakes region and the Sun Belt that could decide the outcome.
Here are five keys to Harris’ bid to make history and become the first woman, the first black woman and the first Indian American to become president.
Hold the ground with black and Latino voters
One of the questions vexing Democrats in this election is whether they will retain their large support among black voters and prevent further erosion of Latino support. Joe Biden in 2020 carried 92% of black voters and 59% of Latinos.
Harris it cannot withstand much sliding Low-propensity voters, who are full of these groups, need encouragement to turn out. But keeping them is easier said than done in the 2024 elections.
Polls show that significant numbers of black and Latino voters are showing interest in Trump this year, with the potential for significant gains for his party.
Here are five keys to Trump’s victory
But will this interest turn into a real vote for Trump at the ballot box? Or can Harris pull them back into the Democratic fold? And will they be disproportionately conservative Trump-leaning or liberal Harris-leaning among the cross-pollination? The answers look huge on Harris’ hopes of victory. He faces a significant task of wooing non-white supporters, including Democratic-leaning Asian Americans.
Abortion empowers women at the ballot box
All signs point to a widening gender gap, with women moving toward Democrats and men—including non-white men who historically vote blue—leaning toward Republicans. The election could lead to one of the largest gender gaps in modern history and determine which side will have the most turnout.
Harris zeroed in on abortion and reproductive autonomy to try to attract women voters, Trump’s Roe v. It used the success of ending Wade and the possibility that Congress and the president could either enact Roe or ban abortion nationwide. Harris appeared recently on the popular Call Her Daddy podcast to mobilize less politically engaged women.
Trump, meanwhile, doubled down on reaching out to men, including young Gen Z men disillusioned with Democrats. He appeared Joe Rogan’s popular podcasthyped the cryptocurrency and reached out to Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy and the billionaire Elon Musk — a strategy that John Della Volpe, director of Harvard’s youth poll, calls “the brother whispers.”
Will young men run to Trump? If that’s the case, Harris will have to up the ante with the women to beat him. Early voting shows higher turnout among women, but there’s no guarantee it will stay that way until Election Day.
Increase Democratic support in the suburbs
Harris is working to juice up his borders in the suburbs, courting soft Republicans, center-right independents and moderates turned off by Trump. He is campaigning with former Republican Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, who have denounced Trump as authoritarian, citing, among other things, his calls to use the power of the state against his political opponents and his desire to stay in power after losing the 2020 election.
Well-educated and disproportionately white suburban voters have been a bright spot for Harris this term, especially since Trump has made no meaningful effort to retain the one-fifth of voters who voted for Nikki Haley in the 2024 Republican primary. They could give Harris a significant boost because these voters reliably turn out in election after election.
Trump is projected to dominate rural and less educated areas of the country. If he polls with this group as he has in previous elections, Harris will have to increase his margin among white college graduates, who favor Biden by 15 percentage points in 2020.
Neutralize Trump on the economy and immigration
Below has been a high priority for Harris Cut the “trust gap” that Trump has given Engaging voters on the economy, cost-of-living registration is a priority for voters in swing states.
His team believes they need to tie the issue to win and appeal to voters about who they care about more. Harris has put spending cuts at the center of his agenda, gaining ground compared to where he was before Biden left in July.
Will it be enough? Some polls suggest that he has completely neutralized the issue. The question is whether this applies to voters. If so, Harris will have covered his biggest weakness with swing voters.
In addition, Trump campaigned heavily on migration fears and blamed Harris for the chaos at the southern border. This is a major weakness for the vice president, but is it politically fatal? Harris responded by moving to the right and attacking Trump for killing a bipartisan border security package that would have made it harder to get asylum. He doesn’t have to win this, but he has to minimize the damage.
Present the game in a superior place
If the election is indeed narrowly decided, Harris may need his “grassroots game”—the invisible mechanics of door-knocking, voter mobilization, and using a local presence to draw out supporters—to deliver the differences that will make a difference.
Much has been made of Trump’s relative lack of game, with the former reality TV star relying on his celebrity status to reach supporters. outsourcing Other elements of the turnout are giving his billionaire ally Musk a boost inexperienced in he.
In 2016, Trump won the presidency despite a shaky ground game. In 2020, some Democrats feel they are underperforming because they shut down their ground game due to Covid-19 and gave the playing field to Republicans to physically reach voters. They corrected it in 2022. This year, Democrats are banking on delivering ground operations again. Their theory is that this could swing the election 50-50 in Harris’ favor. Time will tell if their theory is correct.