WASHINGTON – Four years ago, President Donald Trump used his platform to spread lies about the election and led his supporters there. they act on what they believe is massive voter fraud and finally Attack on the US Capitol.
The 2024 election is just a few days away, and Trump and his allies are running a similar playbook, preparing his voters believing that the election may be “rigged”.
In addition to domestic disinformation campaigns, foreign government influence operations, overseas terrorist groups and local extremists According to dozens of pages of law enforcement documents and months of reporting by NBC News, all are simultaneously trying to use the election for their own benefit.
“We described the threat environment as everything, everywhere, all at once,” said Rebecca Weiner, New York Police Department’s deputy commissioner for intelligence and counterterrorism, describing the overall threat environment.
One major difference this time is that a Democrat is in the White House, and federal authorities, including the FBI and the broader Justice Department, have spent years trying to learn from them. errors the last time around When he arrested and prosecuted more than 1,500 Trump supporters for the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. They, along with the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency – no longer the target of a sitting president — are already preparing to respond to attempts to interfere in both foreign and domestic elections.
But federal officials also note that their role is limited by law and typical practice, noting that state and local officials, not the federal government, are the primary bodies in elections. The Justice Department also has a “quiet period” until Election Day, during which, by policy, it refrains from public actions that could affect the election. And the Justice Department may be reluctant to do anything that could be construed as political, given the country’s extreme politicization in 2024 and years of “weaponized” charges against Trump by Republicans.
Prosecutor General Merrick Garland He could theoretically use his bully pulpit to counter conspiracy theories about massive voter fraud after Tuesday, or after the quiet period after the election is called, a process that could drag on for days or even weeks. However, as 2020 has shown, election lies can spread online so quickly that even media outlets will struggle to report the facts in time. Moreover, Trump and his allies have spent the past decade undermining public trust in the Justice Department and the FBI, reducing their rhetorical power.
“The white knight is not coming,” a federal law enforcement official told NBC News on condition of anonymity to describe the federal authorities’ stance in the coming weeks after Election Day.
The Department of Justice and the FBI will focus on assessing federal violations, the Department of Justice said in a statement, which “plays an important role in preventing and combating threats of election discrimination and intimidation and violence. election officials and polling station workers and election fraud.”
But they are not going to position themselves as fact-checkers, which could quickly become political fodder. Even if federal authorities investigated an allegation and found it to be unfounded, it would not be standard practice to make it public, as the Justice Department’s usual practice is to talk through criminal charges, not to publicly discuss uncharged conduct.
Law enforcement agencies across the country have said they believe the 2024 election will be marked by more sustained partisan rhetoric and disinformation than the 2020 election. If the race is too close to call for days or longer, the potential for violence and the threat of actual violence will steadily increase.
Before voters formally cast their ballots for president and vice president in state capitols across the country on Dec. 17, numerous groups in the United States and abroad will try to fill the information vacuum with threatening rhetoric and disinformation, officials said.
Law enforcement agencies expect windows for potential violence to be squeezed. Instead of escalating over weeks and months as in 2020, threats of violence could flare up intermittently as votes are counted and results are confirmed in the days and weeks after Tuesday.
While not a direct threat so far given that no results have come in, angry mobs have quickly emerged online after the 2020 election, when right-wing organizers can quickly call people to the ground with false claims and conspiracy theories. FBI and Department of Homeland Security they have already warned a joint intelligence bulletin says there is a threat of election-related violence from domestic extremists who believe in election-related conspiracy theories.
Still, the prospect of another January 6 seems unlikely. There is security at the Capitol increased dramaticallyJanuary 6 itself — the day Congress officially meets to count the electoral votes — is designated as a National Special Security Measure, bringing more resources. Many of the leaders of the right-wing extremist groups that helped organize the Capitol attack are also in prison for their actions that day. The aftermath drew light crowds as other Trump supporters worried the FBI might frame them based on baseless Internet conspiracy theories.
Millions of voters still believes Trump’s lies about the 2020 electionand the likely threat landscape, as federal authorities see it, increasingly involves individual actors — “lone wolves” or small groups that can target polling stations and state and local government buildings.
Despite their limitations, federal officials have taken steps to prepare. To combat the extraordinary threat environment for election workers, the Justice Department created the Election Threats Task Force, which is focused on prosecuting people who threaten election officials.
Garland said in a recent statement that the Justice Department’s “warning remains clear: anyone who unlawfully threatens an election worker, official or volunteer will face consequences,” and that the Justice Department will continue to aggressively investigate and prosecute anyone who threatens election officials. chaotic weeks ahead.
“For our democracy to work, Americans who serve the public must do their jobs without fear for their lives,” he said.
The FBI also established a National Election Command post at headquarters to focus on election threats as standard practice during an election year. It has conducted training and testing exercises and monitors the country for potential threats of violence, as well as social media threats and foreign interference.
“The command post will monitor status reports and significant complaints from FBI field offices; monitor indicators of criminal attempts to disrupt the election process; identify trends; and provide guidance to FBI field offices,” the FBI said in a statement. “In addition, the command post will coordinate the FBI’s response to any election-related incident.”
Federal, state and local law enforcement agencies have been involved in more than 200 tabletop drills and training operations over the past two years in anticipation of potential Election Day and post-Election Day scenarios, including active shooter or bomb threats. US officials have said there are plans and processes in place to deal with a myriad of potential threats and other issues. An official pointed out Recent fires lit by incendiary devices at ballot boxes in the North Westnoted that the incidents are being investigated and potentially affected voters are being given options to fill out replacement ballots.
Two law enforcement officials expressed some concern that the federal response to any serious election issues could be chaotic and a “hodgepodge” of various state, local and federal law enforcement agencies and local election agencies. They were concerned that it might be difficult to communicate clearly and quickly with multiple agencies in a potentially chaotic or fluid situation.
Four other current and former law enforcement sources expressed concern that disinformation and conspiracy theories could influence some segments of law enforcement, particularly in parts of the country where Trump has significant support. The issue has been raised before. Like NBC News reportedA week after the January 6 attack, a top FBI official was warned that a “large percentage” of the bureau’s employees were “sympathetic” to the rioters who stormed the Capitol over election-related disinformation.
The Justice Department and FBI have a more defined role in combating foreign interference in US elections, as evidenced by recent cases brought against them by federal prosecutors. Russian propagandists WHO paid right-wing, pro-Trump influencers Making millions of dollars in videos and clarifying The role that China and Iran are trying to play in this year’s elections.
Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, said that the post-election period is a major focus of foreign adversaries, including Russia, China and Iran, and that America’s “foreign adversaries understand that this period of uncertainty and uncertainty will pit Americans against each other.” to incite, incite potential violence, sow discord, undermine American confidence and the legitimacy of the vote they can.
A Justice Department official said multiple investigations into potential violations of election law are ongoing. The official expects strong investigative and prosecutorial actions in the post-election period for anything that exceeds the legal limit.
Easterly said there will certainly be incidents and irregularities in next week’s election, but it’s important for Americans to know that those responsible will be investigated and held accountable.
“Election officials have been preparing for this for years. They trained for this. They trained for this. We have worked directly with them to deal with all these incidents and violations.” “The process is working.”