The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump dominates the 2024 debate, but control of both houses of Congress is also up for grabs — and a number of fluid races could produce surprises on election night.
These sleeper races could determine which party wins a majority in the House or Senate, which will have a significant impact on the next president’s agenda. They will be decided by a number of factors, including voter turnout and whether the candidates have a unique ability to weather the broader political headwinds.
There are nine congressional races where one side should be clearly favored, but they have a battle on their hands.
Texas Senate: Cruz struggles to hang on
Democrats need a miracle to keep control of the Senate, and Texas may be their best chance. Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is giving polarizing Republican Sen. Ted Cruz a run for his money. presents it as an extremist who does nothing.
Cruz calls Allred too liberal for Texas, emphasizing issues like transgender rights and energy production. Although some polls show his lead over Allred within the margin of error, the two-term incumbent still dominates the GOP stronghold.
Cruz sounded the alarm, asking conservative donors to send him more money to fend off the onslaught of Allred and his Democratic allies. There is added intrigue because Cruz performed poorly in his last Senate race in 2018, trailing former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke by less than 3 points.
Nebraska Senate: Populist upstart scares GOP
This race should never have been on the radar. But Dan Osborne — a 48-year-old mechanic, union leader and Navy veteran — made a splash with his independent run as a populist outsider.
Osborne trailed two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fisher by a long margin and ran vociferous ads to upend the status quo. In an announcementhe says the Senate is made up of “millionaires controlled by billionaires” and blasts Fisher as a career politician in Congress who can’t succeed for Nebraska and only wants to enrich himself.
High-quality statewide polls are rare, but available polls show Osborne narrowly ahead in some and Fisher ahead in others. Fischer dominates this ruby-red situation, but for him it should have been a layup, now it’s a real battle. Republicans will send a cavalcade to smear Osborne as a leftist Trojan horse, wresting control of the Senate from the GOP. Osborne says he won’t caucus with either party if elected.
Maryland Senate: Can Hogan Defy Gravity?
Republican Larry Hogan defied gravity in the deep blue state, winning two races for governor of Maryland in 2014 and 2018. Now he’s challenging himself to a more difficult task: becoming the first Republican to win a seat in the Maryland Senate since 1980.
Hogan is a heavy underdog in a state Joe Biden won by a whopping 33 points in 2020, where the focus on federal issues and growing party polarization make it difficult for him.
He is trying to maintain a moderate image that has served him well in gubernatorial races. His challenger, first-time federal candidate and former Prince George’s County executive Angela Alsobrooks, is reminding voters of Hogan’s past anti-abortion views and highlighting which party controls the Senate.
Polls show Hogan leading Trump by a wide margin in Maryland, but still trailing Alsobrooks.
Florida Senate: Can Democrats oust Rick Scott?
Florida is quickly falling off the map for Democrats, and Trump is expected to carry it presidentially. But some Democrats are hoping they can knock out Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., in the party’s quest for an upset victory in a tight Senate map.
Scott, a former governor, has shown an uncanny ability to pull off statewide wins by the slimmest of margins, including Florida’s red waves of 2010 and 2014 and the blue wave of 2018.
Her challenger, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, D-Fla., focuses primarily on reproductive rights. Democrats are hoping that some of Scott’s hard-right views will alienate moderates, and that a ballot measure to enshrine access to abortion in the state constitution will help boost turnout on their side. However, he remains the favourite.
Pennsylvania’s 10th District: A former leader of the Freedom Caucus is in grave danger
The race has all the elements of a shocker in the works, with far-right incumbent Rep. Scott Perry in a moderately GOP-leaning district facing Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former TV news anchor in her political career. well known in the area.
Stelson reached out to Perry by raising eye-watering sums of money and portraying the former chairman of the right-wing Freedom Caucus as out of touch with the district. Republicans are spending money to protect Perry, and he has responded by backing down on some of his controversial positions, such as approving cuts to Social Security benefits.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter recently redefined this previously GOP-leaning race as a “tossup.”
Virginia’s 2nd District: An early call on how Republicans stack up
First-term Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., faces a challenge from Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal after a redrawn, more Republican-friendly district helped her defeat the Democratic incumbent by nearly 3 points in 2022.
Virginia will be among the first states to close on election night on the Eastern Shore, so the results in that district will be seen as a wake-up call on whether Republicans can hold onto the types of districts needed to protect the election. Home crowd. If the Democrats flip it, that probably means they’re in for a good night.
Wisconsin’s 3rd District: Controversial GOP freshman tries to stand
GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden has made plenty of headlines in his first two years in Washington. Throwing obscene words on the pages of the Senate and heckling Biden during it State of the Union address.
He dominates a red-leaning district previously held by centrist Democratic Rep. Ron Kind. But some Democrats see a compelling opportunity to convince enough voters to split their ticket and defect. Democrat Rebecca Cooke is trying to do just that, running as a moderate and acceptable alternative in the district.
Texas’ 34th District: A test of how Latinos are drifting toward the GOP
In a year of shifting coalitions, this heavily Latino region highlights the dynamics that could shape the 2024 elections. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez wants to run against Mexican-born millennial Mayra Flores. promoted far-right rhetoric and trying to push back against transgender rights.
Gonzalez dominates this Democratic-leaning district, but polls show Trump could make gains with Latino voters. The size of those gains, and whether or not the district has the appetite for MAGA-aligned Latina representation, is potentially shocking.
California’s 47th District: Republicans are eyeing an open seat in Newport Beach
Two-term Rep. Katie Porter vacated this Orange County district to launch an unsuccessful run for the Senate. The Republican candidate is former California state legislator and Orange County GOP chairman Scott Baugh, who lost to Porter by less than 4 points in 2022. Democratic state Sen. Dave Mind is making headlines early on as he runs for office. drunk driving.
California is emerging as a bright spot for House Democrats this cycle. If the GOP wants to pare its gains, this Newport Beach area — a once Republican stronghold that has trended blue in the Trump era — may be its best chance to flip a district.