Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar breaks down our latest focus group of voters who didn’t participate in the last election but plan to by now. Plus, Meet the Press host Kristen Welker previews Kamala Harris’ visit to Texas.
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In 2020, sitting voters think they will jump on Trump or Harris this time
By Ben Kamisar
A new focus group of voters who plan to vote this fall — but haven’t in 2020 — shows how both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are leaning on a core message to try to broaden voters in a close race.
Among those voters, Harris has support because they believe she will protect abortion rights, and some have broader hopes that electing the first female president could send a strong message to the country. But it suffers from a number of factors: a poor diagnosis of the American economy, a negative view of life under President Joe Biden’s administration, and a lack of familiarity with it that creates uncertainty and mistrust.
It is different for Trump, one of the most famous political figures on the planet. Some of these voters believe that his conduct during his tenure disqualified him in their eyes, and even some of his supporters fear that he will fight more against his enemies than in power in a second term.
Still, most of the 12 participants in two sessions—part of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group, Syracuse University and research firms Busy and Sago — are leaning toward Trump for the oldest reason in politics: It’s the economy.
“I’m getting older and the economy is really starting to hit us hard. Just with inflation and costs and the labor market, it’s all starting to affect me and my family, so I feel like it’s more important this year,” said Ashley S., 34, of Clayton, North Carolina. not positive.
James B., 56, of Las Vegas, called the choice “simple.” He didn’t vote in 2020 because he moved, but plans to vote this year.
“My financial situation has decreased many times,” he said, adding that “it’s almost impossible to survive. I was better off when he was president.”
“Many 2020 exit voters will vote for Trump this year because they believe he can make the economy of 2025 look like the low-inflation economy of 2019,” said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the sessions.
Read more from our latest focus group →
Why is Beyoncé, Texas, and abortion so important to Harris?
By Kristen Welker
Vice President Kamala Harris is visiting Houston tonight. While Texas may not be a swing state, his visit is still notable for several reasons.
Texas, after all, has a primary Senate contest that gives Democrats a fighting (but up) chance to flip this seat and retain control of the chamber.
It also represents the continuing Democratic dream to turn the Lone Star State blue in the presidential race, even if Joe Biden still loses by more than 5 points in 2020.
Oh, and Beyonce will be in her hometown and is expected to perform at the Harris event.
But perhaps more than anything else, Harris’ visit to Texas is notable for the issue he will highlight there: abortion.
Like NBC News reportsHarris will speak on reproductive rights, Roe v. Will highlight state-level abortion bans after overturning v. Wade.
Our latest NBC News survey It shows why abortion is such a critical issue for Harris: It’s a key motivational issue for voters, especially young women.
Polling consistently finds inflation and the cost of living as voters’ top concerns. When our October poll asked the question differently – Is there an issue you feel so strongly about that you would vote for or against a candidate based solely on that? — abortion topped the list with 22% of registered voters saying it was their No. 1 motivational issue.
[chart]
This includes 34% of women aged 18-49 and 27% of women aged 50 and over.
Add it all up and Texas is pretty important to Harris.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 👀 “The Big Lie” 2.0: Brandy Zadrozny examines how false claims about noncitizen voting by Trump and his allies set the stage to undermine the election. More →
- ⚖️ Legal Eagles: The Republican legal operation is more aggressive and organized this election cycle than it was four years ago, but some lawyers involved in the effort to overturn Trump’s loss are still active. More →
- ❗ Fringe Theory: The newly elected chairman of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, R-Md. Rep. Andy Harris suggested that North Carolina’s Republican-controlled state Legislature should consider awarding the state’s electors to Trump before all the votes are counted. More →
- 🗳️ Vote and see : Pennsylvania officials are investigating 2,500 fraudulent voter registration applications in Lancaster County. More →
- 🚫 No Dice: A federal judge granted the Justice Department’s request to block Virginia’s systematic removal of noncitizens from voter rolls so close to the election. More →
- 🗣️ Gender difference: From the gap between male and female voters in the polls to the policy issues to the rhetoric employed by Trump and his allies, gender is central to the 2024 race. However, Harris avoided talking about the historical nature of his candidacy. More →
- ⚫ Trump’s new claims: Thirty-one years after Stacey Williams said she was groped by Trump while watching Jeffrey Epstein, the 56-year-old author, consultant and former Sports Illustrated swimsuit model went public with her claim this week. More →
- 🔊 Volume up: Trump said at a rally in Arizona that the United States was “like a garbage can for the world” as he ratcheted up his immigration rhetoric in the final days of the campaign. More →
- 🐘 Happy anniversary: Like Mike Johnson celebrates a year as speaker on Friday, he’s fighting hard to keep the Republicans’ razor-thin majority in the House and his job. Meanwhile, operatives in both parties have begun to seriously consider the possibility of Democrats taking control of the House even if Trump wins the presidency. More → 🎙️
- Question-Answer: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro spoke to NBC News about Elon Musk, misinformation and Harris’ chances in his state. More →
- Watch live from the campaign trail →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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