Election Day is less than two weeks away CNBC’s latest national survey Finds a presidential race with a margin of error among Republicans Donald Trump and a Democrat Kamala Harris both nationally and in key battleground states, Trump leads on economic issues while Harris leads on character issues, including integrity and suitability to be president.
In CNBC’s quarterly reportAll American Economic Survey“Trump has support from 48% of registered voters, while Harris has 46% — a 2-point spread, within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
That narrow 2-point margin for Trump is unchanged from CNBC’s August poll and is essentially unchanged. A national NBC News poll earlier this monthconducted by the same pair of bipartisan polling firms, found the candidates tied at 48% each.
Meanwhile, majorities of registered voters in seven key battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — show Trump leading Harris by just 1 point, 48-47%, in those combined states. still within the margin of error.
Inflation remains a strong force shaping this election, with 63% of national voters feeling their family incomes fall short of the cost of living, and nearly half of voters calling it one of the best, CNBC pollsters say. election-related issues – up from previous CNBC polls.
“While the data shows that inflation has theoretically slowed, it has become more important in people’s minds over the past three quarters, not less,” said Democratic pollster Jay Campbell of Hart Research Associates. he said CNBC. (Campbell polls with Republican Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies.)
Harris leads fitness and integrity; Trump is ahead on economic issues
The poll on issues and presidential qualities shows that Harris leads Trump by 13 points nationally on the question of which candidate is mentally and physically fit to be president, and he leads by 10 points on being honest and trustworthy.
However, Trump has a 7-point lead over Harris, which candidate does a better job of boosting the economy in their communities. Trump also has an 8-point advantage on taxes and doing business, and a 9-point advantage on helping small businesses.
The poll found that 42% of registered voters said they believed they would be better off financially if Trump won, compared to 24% who believed they would be better off financially if Harris won. Another 29% of voters say their financial situation will not change at all.
He asked a different question – which candidate can bring positive change for the country? — 42% of national registered voters choose Harris and 40% choose Trump. But both of those numbers fall short of what’s needed to win the presidency, and the race could ultimately be decided by two other groups with very different judgments on the question.
Another 5% of voters said they think both Harris and Trump will bring about positive change. Another 9% of voters pessimistically decided that neither Harris nor Trump would bring positive change as the next president.
Comparing the popularity of Trump and Harris
In addition, the CNBC poll shows that Trump is slightly more popular than Harris nationally, with Trump at 42% favorable, 48% unfavorable (-6 net rating), and Harris at 39% favorable, 49% unfavorable (-10).
But their ratings are nearly identical in the battleground states — 44% favorable, 49% unfavorable (-5) for Trump, compared to Harris’ 43% favorable, 48% unfavorable (-5).
GOP advantage in battle for control of Congress
Finally, the poll looks at the battle for control of Congress, with 48% of registered voters favoring Republicans in control of Congress, while 44% want Democrats in charge.
This 4-point advantage for Republicans is the same in the combined battleground states, 48% for Republicans and 44% for Democrats.
The CNBC poll was conducted Oct. 15-19 among 1,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The 586 battleground voters from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.