The “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have paved the way for the last two Democratic presidents to the White House.
But with the Nov. 5 election just 14 days away, Kamala Harris’s campaign has concerns that the vice president could claim all three states.
Recent discussions have focused on the possibility of an anomaly occurring this year, with only a portion of the blue wall blocking its path. According to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy, talk has focused on Michigan or Wisconsin “falling” to former President Donald Trump, while the other two states go blue.
Losing Wisconsin or Michigan means that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — both Harris and Trump spent the most time and resources—he would not have reached the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House without winning another battleground state, or perhaps two states.
“There’s a sense that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall,” said a senior Harris campaign official, stressing that the bigger concern is about Michigan. Two other people with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy — who, like others in this article, have been granted anonymity to speak candidly — underscored their deep concerns about Michigan. Those people still believe that all states are close and that there are alternative paths to victory.
A Harris campaign spokesman countered the notion of deep concerns about Michigan, pointing to recent public polling. A The Detroit News poll was conducted Oct. 1-4 On Monday, campaigning in Michigan gave Harris a slight edge in the state. As did a Washington Post poll on Monday.
“We’re absolutely running to win Michigan,” Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said, noting Harris’ presence this week. “We think we’re going to win at Michigan.”
He added that he believes they will win Wisconsin, too, and saw no signs of that slipping.
But it also raises a potential concern for Democrats: What Harris believes is one of his campaign’s best insurance options could be in jeopardy. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers mentioned in interviews that the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada was a strong alternative for Harris if Trump won Pennsylvania and won 19 electoral votes.
While North Carolina is still the focus of the campaign and Democrats have shown strong organizing and leadership there, Harris’ team is less eager to win, said four people with knowledge of the dynamics.
“Of all seven [states]it seems like it’s slipping a little bit,” Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
The devastation of Hurricane Helene – and widespread misinformation After that — factors that could weigh against Harris in North Carolina, these people said. One source also pointed to a less competitive race for governor as a potential factor. A series of scandals overturned the Republican candidate Mark Robinson’s campaignleaving him well behind Democrat Josh Stein in the polls; These developments mean less local investment and intensification in places, he said.
After President Joe Biden withdrew from seeking the nomination and endorsed Harris on July 21, the Democratic map expanded to include the six battleground states Biden won in 2020 — three blue-wall states, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — plus North Carolina. While the campaign built infrastructure in those states under Biden’s leadership, his stubbornly low ratings on the economy and immigration really kept only three blue-wall states in play. Things changed when Harris entered the race. Suddenly, enthusiasm, fundraising and volunteer interest increased, and a positive feedback survey followed.
But as the Nov. 5 election nears, Harris and Trump are deadlocked in the margin of error race.
The Harris campaign has been running a seven-state battleground strategy throughout the term, pouring huge resources into organizing, building infrastructure in rural areas and outpacing Republicans in advertising spending, he said.
“I don’t see the blue wall road, the Sunbelt road or the southern road. Dan Kanninen, state director of Harris Field, said in a recent interview that I see seven states close together. “So we built an operation that could win close races on the ground in anticipation of that. Indeed, one in seven has as good a chance of being a turning point as any other.”
Since Harris’s entrance, the campaign has viewed blue-wall states as central to his electoral path, but he has also seen states like Nevada as important to shore up a win if legal challenges arise, even if Democrats support a blue wall. according to three campaign officials.
In the remaining states of Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, according to public opinion polls, the elections are close or Harris is down. Queries They found Trump a leader In Arizona and Georgia, Harris is slightly higher in Nevada.
Trump has had his own struggles. Reports a uncomfortable on the ground operation in swing states they are assembling. He has trailed Harris in fundraising, raising questions about whether he will have the resources to attract low-propensity voters to the polls if the contest remains tight. Monday, He was visiting North Carolinaeven though his campaign hasn’t gone blue since 2008, it’s a sign he doesn’t see it as a lock. He also spent time there repeating misinformation about Hurricane Helene. rejected by the members from his own party.
Blue wall states have played a key role in electing presidents in the last few elections. Barack Obama claimed them in his victories in 2008 and 2012. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the trio to Trump. He is still criticized for skipping the state in Wisconsin that year’s general election. Biden restored the blue wall for Democrats in 2020.
In each of these cases, three states went in the same direction to increase the winner. Each has unique economic and electoral characteristics this year that could push them in different directions, several sources in Harris’ camp say.
The last time Blue Wall was on the ballot was in 1988, when Michael Dukakis won Wisconsin while losing Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who led the campaign strategy for Democratic presidential candidates in 1988, 2000 and 2004, said, though he did not rule out that it would be historically unusual for blue-wall states to separate from each other. Devine said Harris has the upper hand in the states because he is on the winning ticket in 2020.
“Those three, the blue wall means, are almost always together, but this year is an unusually tight race. When you’re this close, it’s easy for the state to shift to either side. This may happen this year,” he said. “I think they’re going to do what they do after the circuit. They will go one way or another, unanimously. They are historically connected with their voting behavior.”
In Michigan, a large Arab and Muslim population has protested the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Gaza war, and for months elected Democrats there have issued warning signs about the presidential race. Late last month, Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin, a candidate for the Senate He warned that Harris was under water in the state.
Again, recent Democratic electoral success and then some primary early voting Michigan offers Harris hope of making it out. Two years ago, the party flipped the Legislature to give Democrats the trifecta for the first time in 40 years. Democrats again in April won the special elections to ensure a majority of the ward. Strong organizing has kept women close on the positive numbers in the state.
In Wisconsin, where Biden won by just over 20,000 votes in 2020, there is concern among Democrats about white male voters and rural counties that traditionally loom large for Trump. However, the liberal bastion of Dane County ultimately went for the Democrats, and the so-called WOW counties, a trio of voter-rich counties outside of Milwaukee, traditionally contain a high proportion of female voters, which Harris’ team sees as supportive. Organizers, including union members who support Harris, crisscrossed the state, including rural counties, dwarfing Trump’s organization.
If Harris loses one of the blue wall states, it won’t be for lack of visits. He competed in the Rust Belt, focusing mostly on Pennsylvania. Harris has made two trips to North Carolina this month, once on an official visit after the hurricane and the second time on the campaign trail. He was last in the state on October 13. Vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz and former presidents Obama and Bill Clinton have all been sent to North Carolina, a sign that Democrats are still in serious competition.
Matt Baretto, a Democratic pollster who polls for the Harris camp, said the race was too close to swing any states for Harris, noting that in 2022 Republicans — and much of the media — predicted a red wave that never materialized. .
“Right now, Harris has a lead in all three states — not a huge lead — and we know the election is going to be close. In any one of those states, it’s going to be 1 or 2 percent,” Baretto said. But he insisted the momentum is still behind Harris. He draws big crowds and big volunteer bases. … He seems to be in a strong position. [But] there is still work to be done.”