7 key forces shaping the final days of the election: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down the most important voting dynamics defining the final stretch of the presidential race. Plus, senior White House correspondent Peter Nicholas examines how Barack Obama’s message failed to resonate with his secret target audience.

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7 major forces shaping the final days of the election

By Mark Murray

Two weeks before Election Day, the polls can’t tell us who will win the presidential race — the results are that close, and the polls in previous cycles have been very poor, especially in 2020.

But there is still much we can learn from them. National and battleground state polls have revealed several important dynamics defining the campaign between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

1. Inflation remains a top concern for voters, but abortion is a top motivator.

Regardless of the survey, voters they say consecutively That the cost of living is their main concern, usually followed by threats to democracy, immigration and the economy in general.

But when this month National NBC News survey asked a different question – Is there an issue that motivates you to vote for or against a candidate on that issue alone? — abortion rose to the top of the list.

2. The gender gap is real.

Women voters support Harris by 14 points, while men support Trump by 16 points. A recent poll by NBC News. This 30-point gender gap is larger than what exit polls showed in 2016 and 2020.

It’s especially important to focus on white women with college degrees, who backed Harris by 28 points in an October NBC News poll.

3. Trump made gains with Latino and Black voters.

While Harris and the Democrats made more progress with white women with college degrees, they lost ground with them. Latino voters and (to a lesser extent) Black voters.

Which swing is bigger, especially in key battleground states, could ultimately decide the presidential race.

4. Voters view Trump’s presidency more positively than Biden’s.

It remains one of the most important forces shaping this election: According to an NBC News poll this month, Trump’s retrospective job approval rating (48%) is higher than President Joe Biden’s current job approval rating (43%).

5. Harris is more popular than Trump.

However, Harris continues to be more popular than Trump, although the gap between them varies depending on the poll.

An October NBC News poll showed Harris with a net favorability rating that was just 2 points higher than Trump’s (down from 16 in September). But a new survey by the Associated Press found Harris with a net popularity lead of 22 points.

6. The vote share of the third party has decreased.

Polls when Biden is in the race found Third-party presidential candidates who won double-digit support. But this fell now only 4-5 points.

That could pay off in a close election, given that a large third-party vote in 2016 allowed Trump to win key battleground states by 47% to 48%.

7. Voters are split on whether Harris or Trump should be the candidate for change.

Of all these storylines, this one may be the most important in the race between the incumbent vice president (Harris) and the former president (Trump): Who is the candidate for change?

October NBC News survey showed Harris leads Trump by 5 points, 45-40%, on who better represents change.

But more voters (43%) said they were more worried that Harris would follow the same approach as Biden, compared with voters (41%) who said they were more worried that Trump would continue the same approach as in his first term.

On the campaign trail, Obama has a particularly tough crowd: Young Black men

By Peter Nicholas

TUCSON, Ariz. – If there is a prototypical Kamala Harris voter, it might look like Charles Johnson, a 23-year-old black college student.

Johnson is knowledgeable and engaged in politics; he went to hear former President Barack Obama speak at a Democratic campaign rally on the University of Arizona campus on Friday.

However, he is not too impressed with either Obama, the country’s first black president, or Harris, who will be the second. He says he is inclined to vote for Donald Trump.

“The media says it [Trump] he’s terrible and he’s racist and he’s going to set us back, but he’s only getting the support of black voters,” Johnson said in an interview. “She only gets support with black men.”

Democrats have been angered by recent polls showing Harris’ numbers are slipping among black voters, particularly young Black men. One of Obama’s tasks in campaigning for Harris is to convince black people like Johnson that voting for Trump would be a big mistake. An Obama aide said that in the days leading up to the election, he will conduct interviews with podcasters and various internet personalities with large black followings.

“Black male voters have a lot of respect and admiration for President Obama, and they’re going to be careful what his message is,” said Joel Benenson, a former Obama campaign pollster. “What’s hidden in his message is, ‘You should rally around him as you rally around me.’ That’s the message they’re going to get, and it’s going to be helpful.

However, it is not certain that Obama’s target audience is listening to him. A younger generation of black Americans may have seen very little of Obama, with only dim memories of his presidency, which ended nearly eight years ago.

At a pair of rallies in Tucson and Las Vegas in recent days, Obama drew thousands of cheering supporters, though turnout among young black men was low.

When it comes to this different segment of the electorate, Obama may not be the compelling messenger he once was, some participants said.

Read more from Peter →

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