Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, senior congressional correspondent Scott Wong sits down with House Speaker Mike Johnson as he hits the country in support of Republican congressional candidates. Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down our latest NBC News poll on how President Joe Biden is influencing Vice President Kamala Harris.
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Speaker Johnson predicts that a new coalition will elect Republicans in 2024
By Scott Wong
HELLERTOWN, Pa. – In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., detailed how he sees Republicans increasing their House majority and winning back the White House and Senate: by capturing a larger percentage of Hispanic, Black and Black Jewish voters and union workers – traditionally Democratic constituencies – compared to past elections.
“If we do the math on the other side of this election, it will show that we have a demographic shift,” Johnson said before a campaign event on behalf of the GOP congressional candidate in Hellertown.
“I think we’re going to have record numbers of Hispanic and Latino voters. I think record numbers of black and African-American voters, Jewish voters, union voters. I talk to all these groups of people,” he continued. “And they don’t just reluctantly get on board; they are excited.”
At the rallies, Johnson and former President Donald Trump blamed Vice President Kamala Harris for high commodity prices and a failure to secure the border. two main issues for voters – even as inflation cooled and Trump helped kill a border deal in a bipartisan Senate.
“It’s a real erosion in their base,” Johnson said of Democrats. “The reason is that I think people really look beyond the party, beyond the identity. I think they’re looking at policies because they’re evaluating how their lives are now and how they were four years ago.”
The 52-year-old speaker has campaigned in more than 220 cities in 40 states this term, including a swing through Pennsylvania last week. In the final three weeks before Election Day, he will face 65 other cities in 24 states as Republicans seek to attract new voters to defend or increase their slim three-seat majority in the House of Representatives.
Much of Johnson’s time on the campaign trail was spent in the battleground states of California and New York, blue states where his party held dozens of seats and tried to fend off several others. Given how closely the House is divided, majorities can be won or lost in either of those two states. But Pennsylvania could also be critical, boasting several tight races in swing districts.
A new poll shows how Biden is influencing Harris
By Mark Murray
Of all the latest findings NBC News surveywhich helps explain why Vice President Kamala Harris’ momentum stalled three weeks before Election Day: President Joe Biden remains a political drag.
We see this in the share of voters who believe Biden’s policies have helped them (25%) versus those who say Biden’s policies have hurt them (45%).
Compare that to 44% in the poll who said Trump’s policies helped them and 31% who said they were hurt.
We also see this in Biden’s approval rating in the poll (43%), and retrospective approval of Trump’s presidency is 5 points higher (48%).
We see this in the question of whether voters are more interested in whether Harris continues the same approach as Biden or Trump continues the same approach from his first term as president. Overall, 43% of voters said they were more worried about Harris following Biden’s path, and 41% said they were more worried about Trump resuming his tenure in the White House.
“Harris trailing even slightly on this measure is a warning sign because voters are more likely to believe Biden’s policies hurt their families than Trump’s to help them,” said Jeff Horwitt, the Democratic half of the bipartisan team. This NBC News poll.
For Bill McInturff, the Republican half of the poll, the “headwinds” Harris faces in the poll include running as the sitting vice president of an unpopular president who chose not to seek re-election.
“He wants another term from the current party,” he said.
The good news for Harris is that he’s separated himself from Biden a bit — he’s slightly more popular than Biden in the poll, and he leads Trump by 5 points because the candidate better represents change (though that’s down from his 9-point lead in the month). before). In an NBC News poll, his polling position is stronger than it was for Biden in 2024, when he was still in the race.
The problem for him, however, is that unlike Biden, he hasn’t been able to answer what he will do — at least not yet NBC News’ Monica Alba and Carol E. Lee report.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 🔊 Volume up: Trump has been ramping up his rhetoric, portraying his opponents and critics as criminals, while leaving a long trail of suggestions that he advocates outlawing political speech he deems fraudulent or challenges his claims to power. within one Fox News interview On Sunday’s broadcast, the former president called Democrats and others who oppose or investigate him “the enemy from within.” More →
- 2️⃣ Take two: Trump said he would ask Congress to pass legislation increasing the number of border patrol agents — months after he blocked a bipartisan measure that would have included a staffing increase. More →
- 🩺 Check: Harris released his medical report over the weekend, seeking to contrast Trump, who has not publicly released details about his health. More →
- 📣 Dangerous lag: Some Arab and Muslim leaders in Michigan fear publicly endorsing Harris’ bid for president and angering voters disaffected by U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza and southern Lebanon. More →
- 🛣 Battlefield: Harris is canvassing voters in Erie County, Pa., on Monday, a call that reflects the outcome of this important battleground in the last four elections. More →
- 🔀 Switching sides? The GOP presidential ticket has won a majority of white female voters in every election since 2000, but a new battleground state poll suggests the key voting bloc could win this year. More →
- 🗳 Neck and neck: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers are making their latest appeals to swing voters as they prepare for a “really close” Senate race in Michigan. More →
- 🗺️ Expanding the map: Democrats and Republicans are betting on long-term chances to flip an extra seat in their columns — Florida, Texas, Nebraska and Maryland — pouring money into the fringes of battleground states. More →
- 📝 Bueller? Bueller? Republican Jim Justice is on track to become the next senator from West Virginia. But his attendance issues as governor of the state are a concern, Politico reports. More →
- Follow live updates from the campaign trail →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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