ERIE, Pa. – Dr. Teresa Wheeling has always been a registered Republican. She voted third-party in 2016 and then for Donald Trump in 2020 because she felt it would be “hypocritical” for her children to vote against her choices on various policies and promises of the Trump administration.
But the Supreme Court previously ruled in Roe v. Wheeling switched party affiliation a day after Wade reversed federal abortion protections. And this time, he’s voting for Vice President Kamala Harris.
“I’m ashamed to call myself a Republican,” Wheeling told NBC News. “Four years ago, I could have said no [to Harris]but now I think he’s more moderate. I absolutely cannot vote for Trump.”
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Voters like Wheeling can decide the election in counties and states like this one — with Erie, Pennsylvania, the biggest battleground state buzzing. White women are a large voting bloc, and since 2000 the GOP presidential ticket has won most of them. In 2016, the group helped propel Trump to the presidency. Although he lost his race for re-election in 2020, he improved the differences between them.
But a new survey from Galvanize Action — a nonpartisan group that has tracked the attitudes of more than 6,000 white women in 10 battleground states since June — suggests the group could win in 2024.
“We see such a big divide [between men and women]says Jackie Payne, founder and CEO of Galvanize Action. “And so we see both Harris and Trump fighting for the vote of moderate white women.”
The poll, first shared with NBC News by the group and conducted 10 days after Trump and Harris’ only debate, shows Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump among this group, 46% to 44%, within the poll’s margin of error. In Galvanize Action’s June poll, when President Joe Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee, he and Trump were in a dead heat among white women.
“Then we started moving a little bit toward Harris after Harris got into the race,” Payne said, adding that the poll numbers — like most public polls — “are still very much in error,” still very close.
Payne reminds us that this group of voters is “by no means monolithic. And it’s not a running race for anyone, is it? I think that’s a very important thing to realize. It’s a game of inches.”
Among white female voters, the economy, democracy, immigration and protection of abortion rights rank first. The best side of Trump and the Republicans is on the economy, with 41% of white female voters blaming the Biden-Harris administration for inflation, and a third believing the GOP is “better” on the issue.
For Democrats, it is abortion that will make the most difference in this voting block. As in Wheeling, Erie, nearly half of white women told Galvanize they would only vote for a candidate who would act to protect abortion rights.
“What we heard [moderate white women] Even if I never choose to have an abortion, it is a freedom that the women I love deserve and should be protected,” Payne said.
NBC News’ data covering the last three presidential terms only reinforces the idea that this group is in the midst of realignment — however permanent.
In a 2012 NBC News poll, Republicans held a 5-point lead with this group, only to slowly lose it over the next few election cycles. In the NBC News poll, the gap grew from there: a 4-point advantage for Democrats in 2020 and now a 6-point advantage in 2024.
This trend was especially evident among young white women aged 18-34. According to these data, white women ages 35 to 54 remain in the GOP column, and the trend line for ages 55 and older shows a toss-up between the two parties.
It is entirely possible that this voting block will be and remain fraudulent after 2024. It certainly will for Wheeling.
Asked if there was a permanent change in the way he voted this year, Wheeling, now a registered independent, said: “Maybe with my registration, but not with my voting. “Voting is always based on the person, the character and the issue.”
Emma Barnett contributed.