Former president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris they are deadlocked The latest national NBC News pollTrump was buoyed by Republicans who returned home to support him after last month’s rough debate and subsequent deficit, as well as voters’ positive assessment of Trump’s tenure.
These are among the results of a new poll released three weeks before Election Day. It also shows that Harris’ popularity is down from a month ago, after a huge summer surge; Huge gender gap between support for Harris and Trump; and voters see abortion as a key motivating issue heading into the 2024 ballot.
“As summer turned into fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris stalled,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a deadly heat.”
McInturff said “headwinds” for Harris helped narrow the presidential race, including concerns that the vice president did not represent a change from President Joe Biden and that voters viewed Trump’s presidency in a more positive light than Biden’s.
“He’s asking for another term from the current party,” McInturff said of Harris.
However, the poll’s highlight is uncertainty about the election (10% of voters say they could change their minds, and unsolicited voters still on the fence), the highest share of voters who believe this presidential election will turn out. A “huge difference” in their lives and major issues for both Harris and Trump. Third-party voting may also play a role—when third-party candidates are included in the voting test, Trump gets a small boost with a 1-point lead.
And in delicately balanced elections, even small changes in turnout among different groups can be the difference between victory and defeat for either side.
“The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she rise to the occasion and fill in the blanks voters have about her?” asked Democratic pollster Horvitt.
“The challenge for Donald Trump: Can he claim that the chaos and personal behavior that has plagued so many in his first term won’t get in the way of governing and representing America?” he added.
“The next month will tell if the candidates can respond to these challenges,” Horwitt said.
In a new poll conducted Oct. 4-8, Harris won the support of 48% of registered voters to Trump’s 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or would not vote for either candidate if forced to choose between the two major party candidates.
(Read more from NBC News polls about why this survey measures registered voters and not likely voters.)
This is a change An NBC News poll in SeptemberIt found Harris ahead of Trump by 5 points, 49%-44%, though that result was within the margin of error.
The expanded ballot, which includes third-party candidates, also shows the shift, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll choosing Trump, 46% supporting Harris and 7% overall choosing other candidates or saying they were undecided.
Harris in September was held there is a 6-point margin in this extended ballot.
Given that close elections often decide which party will turn out voters better, the NBC News poll paints a picture of what could happen under different turnout scenarios.
Assuming a more Republican-friendly environment — meaning slightly more turnout among men, white voters and voters without a college degree — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49-47%.
But assuming a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats — meaning more women, more college-educated white voters and more voters of color — the results of this poll show Harris leading Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49%-46. %.
All of these results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
(Read more about these different turnout scenarios and how they will affect the election here.)
Big gender difference
48%-48%, the poll results are as close as possible. But there are large differences in candidate support between different groups.
According to the poll, Harris has the largest advantages over Trump among black voters (84%-11%), young voters 18-34 (57%-37%) and white voters with a college degree (55%-41%).
And Trump leads among rural voters (75% to 23%), white voters (56% to 42%) and whites without a college education (65% to 33%).
However, what stands out as one of the defining features of the election is the large gender gap between Harris and Trump, with women supporting Harris by 14 points (55-41) and men supporting Trump by 16 points. 56-40%).
Independent voters are broadly split in the poll, with 44% supporting Harris and 40% choosing Trump. Compared to other groups, there are more independents who say they have to choose between Harris and Trump or don’t want to choose between them.
Harris’s popularity is waning
Another significant change in the NBC News poll since September is Harris’ popularity.
One of the key developments in an NBC News poll after the Sept. 10 Harris-Trump debate was a double-digit increase in his popularity compared to earlier in the summer, before he became the Democratic presidential nominee. His ratings rose to 48% positive, 45% negative (+3 net ratings).
But in this latest poll, Harris’ approval rating is 43% favorable, 49% negative (-6), with the erosion coming mostly from independents and younger voters.
That’s not far from Trump’s 43% favorable, 51% unfavorable (-8) score in the same poll. The favorable rating is Trump’s highest in the NBC News poll since he left office.
Perceptions of Biden’s presidency lag behind Trump’s
Another storyline from the poll is voters’ differing views of a Biden presidency versus a Trump one — a key question given the candidates’ efforts to portray themselves as agents of change in this election.
Twenty-five percent of voters think Biden’s policies have helped them and their families, while 45 percent think they have hurt them.
These numbers actually translate into opinions about Trump’s past presidency: 44% of voters say the former president’s policies have helped them, while 31% say they have hurt them.
Moreover, 48% of voters who looked at Trump’s presidency said that they approve of the former president’s work performance. That’s higher than Trump’s job approval rating in an NBC News poll when he was president.
It also stands in contrast to Biden’s current 43% approval rating in the poll.
And when asked what worries them more — Harris taking the same approach as Biden or Trump from his first term as president — 43% of voters say they’re more worried about Harris following Biden’s path. Concerned that Trump will repeat the actions of his tenure.
“Harris trailing even slightly on this measure is a warning sign because voters are more likely to believe Biden’s policies hurt their families than Trump’s to help them,” said Horwitt, a Democratic pollster.
Abortion is a major motivational issue and a top issue for Harris
Including most public inquiries September’s national NBC News pollTo find out the cost of living issues that most concern voters, this survey asked a different question to gauge voter intensity and motivation heading into voting day: Is there an issue on which you would vote for or against just one candidate? in that matter?
Most allowed answers: abortion (22%), immigration/border security (19%), protecting democracy or constitutional rights (18%), and cost of living (16%).
The NBC News poll also tested Harris and Trump on who would do better on nine different issues and presidential qualities, including some of the top issues voters see as top priorities.
Harris’ top issues against Trump were abortion (19 points ahead of Trump on the issue), health care (+10) and being competent and effective (+5).
Trump’s top issues and qualities: dealing with the border (+25), handling the situation in the Middle East (+18) and dealing with the cost of living (+11).
On the key question of which candidate better represents change, Harris leads Trump by 5 points, 45-40%, but that’s down from his 9-point lead in September.
Other important survey results
62 percent of registered voters believe the upcoming presidential election will make a “big difference” in their lives. This is the highest response to an NBC News poll since 1992.
As in presidential elections, Democrats and Republicans dominate Congress, with 47% of registered voters favoring a Democratic-controlled Congress, while the same 47% want Republicans in charge. In September, Democrats were leading by 2 points, 48%-46%, which was within the margin of error.
31% of voters think that the nation is going in the right direction, and 64% think that it is going in the wrong direction. The share of voters who believe the country is on the wrong track is the lowest in the poll since August 2021, the last time Biden had a positive job approval rating in the poll.
NBC News polled 898 of 1,000 registered voters by cellphone Oct. 4-8. Its overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.