Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, Capitol Hill veterans Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorp V report on Montana’s Donald Trump voters to decide whether Sen. John Tester will win another term. — and whether Democrats depend on their majority in the Senate. Plus, the “Meet the Press” moderator breaks down the polling numbers behind Barack Obama’s tough message to black voters.
Sign up here to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday.
Jon Tester is giving ticket splitters a boost in a Montana Senate race that appears to be slipping
By Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorp V
BUTTE, Mont. — Tim Combo arrived at the second-floor union hall of Western State Carpenters on Wednesday, covered in dust and dirt from a day at work. Combo, a 27-year-old union carpenter, feels deeply that the election will have a direct impact on his life – and he has made his choice.
“I came here to vote for Jon Tester, and I’m going to vote for Donald Trump,” Combo said in the auditorium where Tester spoke.
The combo represents the best hope for Tester, a Democrat, to win a fourth term in the Senate in deep red Montana — and with it, the likelihood that Democrats will retain a slim majority in the chamber. But ticket-splitters like him are becoming rarer with every election in a polarized United States, giving Republicans a good chance to capture a majority in the Senate this fall.
Poll after poll shows Tester trailing Republican Tim Sheehy, a wealthy businessman and retired Navy SEAL, though leading Trump by a narrower margin than Vice President Kamala Harris.
Tester, who has previously defied the odds, said he believes the halls of union, as he spoke Wednesday night, represent a deep connection with the people of his state.
“Look, I have my own brand in the state, and it’s different than the national Democrats,” he said. “If it was the same as the national Democrat, I would never have been elected the first time or the second time.”
But Tester’s campaign is aggressively pitching to convince Trump voters in Montana that he’s worth sticking with because of the specific issues he’s working on to benefit the state. At the Butte union hall, Tester touted his work to make sure billions of dollars in infrastructure projects set aside in 2022 would create union jobs. The mostly male crowd that packed the room cheered loudly, with Tester admitting that many would vote for Trump.
Tester, who has twice voted to impeach Trump, has vowed to work with Trump and even listed issues on which they agree.
“We probably agree with the Second Amendment. We probably agree on the southern border. We, I mean, there are a number of things, yeah, yeah,” he said.
Read more from Ryan and Frank →
Silver State Shipping: Out west, Nevada hosts a Senate race that is a must-win for Democrats and could dictate the size of a potential majority for the GOP.
Bridget Bowman reports from Las Vegas that some Republicans worry it may be too late for GOP candidate Sam Brown to close the poll gap with Democratic Sen. Jackie Rosen, even as the battleground presidential race remains tight.
Poll numbers are behind Obama’s warning to blacks
By Kristen Welker
The most popular man left in Democratic politics has officially hit the campaign trail for Vice President Kamala Harris in the final sprint to Election Day.
Former President Barack Obama arrived in Pittsburgh on Thursday sharp warning for blacks to strengthen their support for Harris.
“We haven’t seen the same energy and activism everywhere in our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I ran. Now I want to say that it is more pronounced in brothers”, – Obama told a group of volunteers before the rally.
“Part of it makes me think that you just don’t feel comfortable with the idea of a woman being president, and you find other alternatives and other reasons for it,” she said. “You give all kinds of reasons and excuses. I have a problem with that.”
He urged them to “talk to people on the sidelines” and urged them not to “think about sitting on the sidelines or supporting someone who has a history of defaming you because you think that’s a sign of strength.”
“Because that’s what being a man is? Bringing women down?’ Obama told them. “This is unacceptable.”
What is behind this warning?
A recent poll of swing states by Howard University’s Public Opinion Initiative found that while Harris led former President Donald Trump with black voters overall, there were stark differences when the results were broken down by age and gender.
Men under 50 are the most likely group of black voters to support Trump over Harris, according to the poll. While Harris has a 78-point lead among black men over 50, that number drops to about 50 points with black men under 50.
Bottom line: This is the first time we’ve heard this powerful and direct appeal to other Black men from the nation’s first Black president. The question is: Will it resonate and move this critical constituency to more enthusiastically support Harris in the final weeks of the campaign?
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 💰Please check: At least four cities and one county are still awaiting reimbursement for local law enforcement and first responder expenses incurred during Trump’s past visits. More →
- 🏌️Rain check: After an assassination attempt near one of Trump’s golf courses, security concerns are preventing the former president from playing golf after the election. More →
- 🌀 Consequences of the hurricane: The devastation caused by Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina has dealt a major blow to Harris and Trump’s statewide plans. More →
- ☎️ Call me maybe: Since leaving office, Trump has contacted more foreign leaders than just Russian President Vladimir Putin. More →
- ⚖️ In courts: Republicans have launched a new wave of lawsuits challenging overseas voting procedures in three swing states. More →
- 📺 On air: The Democratic National Committee has released a new TV ad in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that portrays Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein as Trump’s horse. More →
- 🎤 Summary of the debate: Angela Alsobrooks and Larry Hogan came together for their only debate on the Maryland Senate race, exchanging views on whether the deep blue state would be better represented by a staunch Democrat or an anti-Trump Republican. More →
- 🗳️ Voting battle: The race in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley could determine which party controls the House next year and predict who will win the White House. More →
- Watch live from the campaign trail →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – email us politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
If you are a fan, please share with anyone and everyone. They can register here.