Over the past two years, the Senate race has focused on several closely watched states. But weeks ago On Election Day, Democrats and Republicans pour money Placement of bets, edges of their battle map long shot chances to convert an extra seat to their column.
And they’re long-shot contests, especially during presidential elections, when ticket splitting isn’t as common as it used to be. In some cases, the challengers prevailed over the incumbents. But in all four races — Florida, Texas, Nebraska and Maryland — one of the presidential candidates, former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, is expected to easily carry the state, making it more difficult for a member of the other. Party to convert the seat
However, the parties seem to be running out of options. In Maryland, Republicans are hoping that popular former governor Larry Hogan can attract crossover independents and the Democrats who helped him win twice. Democrats in Florida and Texas are focusing on state abortion bans to try to recover from recent losses in those states. And in Nebraska, an independent is running against a two-term Republican senator in an unusual race.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in Texas and Florida said last month it would do so to turn onmillion dollar investment” in television advertising costs.
Those races, with Democratic Rep. Colin Allred challenging GOP Sen. Ted Cruz in the Lone Star State and former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mukarsel-Powell challenging GOP Sen. Rick Scott in the Sunshine State, have certainly had their fair share of national contests. attention.
Allred especially has massively elevated Cruz encouraged his campaign to spend $23 million on campaign ads in September and nearly $10 million in the first 10 days of October, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm.
Cruz’s campaign spent about $5 million on ads in September and $4 million in the first 10 days of October. But spending by a super PAC in his favor and ads paid for by his leadership PAC and the state’s Republican Party boosted it as well.
The disparity in spending is less stark in Florida, where Mucarsel-Powell spent $8.6 million on her campaign in September and $2.1 million on Scott’s. In the first 10 days of October, the former congresswoman already spent more than 5 million dollars on the campaign of the woman, while Scott, a wealthy businessman who spends his own money on his political campaigns, spent only 1.7 million dollars.
But Scott’s campaign It booked an additional $5.2 million in campaign advertising during Election Day, with more to come.
Despite promises to spend millions in both states, DSCC has so far not booked any ads in Florida. And in Texas Booked a coordinated ad buy with Allred’s $1.6 million campaign.
“A lot of money has been spent in Texas, but the truth is that if [Democrats] they will compete, they will have to spend more than they spend. It’s the same in Florida,” a national Republican strategist told NBC News, throwing cold water on the idea that Democrats saw a late surge in their favor in both states.
still, Strategists on the ground point to several factors beyond costs as reasons why these races are swinging in their favor.
Florida voters will have their say in November on two ballot measures that Democrats say could swing voter turnout in their favor — one to legalize marijuana, the other to expand access to abortion. Florida currently bans abortion after six weeks, as does Texas.
A spokeswoman for the Mucarsel-Powell campaign told NBC News that Scott “wrapped his arms” around the state’s abortion ban when the law was signed, which could be a liability for him among voters who plan to vote to expand access.
And after two hurricanes wreaked havoc in parts of the state, the same spokesman said they plan to hit Scott, who was governor of the state before running for the Senate, with the property insurance crisis plaguing the state.
In the TV commercials, Scott backed off. In an announcementhe addressed the voters directly on camera, telling them that he and his daughter “are both satisfied [in vitro fertilization] it must be protected for our family, for every family”.
The ad counters an argument by national Democrats that Republicans who support abortion bans will also seek to limit access to IVF treatments.
In another announcementhe goes on the attack, slamming Mucarsel-Powell as a “socialist” who wants “higher taxes on families.”
In Texas, Democrats took Cruz on abortion and other issues 2021 Traveled to Cancun and the state faced a power crisis as a result of a severe winter storm.
Republicans in the border state responded by increasing Cruz’s authority over border security An ad sponsored by Cruz “I support Ted Cruz because Democrats and Republicans need to work together to solve the problems of Texans now,” the Democratic Harris County District Attorney told voters.
Cruz and other Republicans also hit Allred on the issue of transgender women and girls competing in sports.
In an announcement A storyteller paid by Cruz’s campaign blasted Allred for “proposing an ultra-liberal vision for America: boys in girls’ locker rooms, boys in girls’ bathrooms, boys in girls’ sports.”
Earlier this week, Allred answered voters directly on camera in her ad: “Let me be clear. “I don’t want boys playing sports with girls or all these ridiculous things that Ted Cruz said.”
A national GOP operative said Allred’s response to Cruz’s attacks “shows there is a good message” that is resonating with voters.
Despite efforts by Democrats to pour money and attention into these races, they have yet to become the competitive nail-biters that the races are shaping up to be in Republican-leaning Montana and Ohio and Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter still rates the Florida Senate race as “Likely Republican,” although earlier this month the group moved the Texas Senate race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
A week earlier, the group had slightly shifted the Nebraska Senate race away from Republicans, moving from “Strong Republican” to “Likely Republican,” even though the state favors Trump at the top of the ticket.
The move comes as independent Senate candidate Dan Osborne gains ground over GOP Sen. Deb Fischer in recent public and internal polls.
The Senate race in Maryland has similar dynamics, and is rated by Cook as a “Possibly Democratic” race, though Harris is expected to win there easily.
Hogan ran a formidable battle against Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in a race she would have easily won had she faced any other Republican.
Although Alsobrooks is leading in the public poll, a source close to his campaign told NBC News it’s “definitely a competitive race,” adding, “I’m not underestimating the eight-year former governor.”
And even though Hogan runs as a Republican and works with the National Republican Senatorial Committee to run television ads, he calls himself “an independent, common-sense leader” and “maverick” WHO promises to be “A basic vote that can stand up to the craziness of both sides, the extremes of both sides.”
“We, like Larry Hogan, ran an aggressive race,” a source close to Alsobrooks added, but pointed to the state executive’s main argument against the former governor: He would give Republicans a majority in the Senate.
“I like Larry Hogan as a person,” Alsobrooks He said at the campaign event held in September. “But this is not the question we will answer in this election. We determine which party controls the Senate.”
In Nebraska, Osborne tried to run as a true independent, rejecting endorsements from figures in both parties. But Democrats decided not to field a candidate, quietly paving the way for Osborne and allowing him to build a coalition of Democrats, independents and some Republicans.
“The polls in my race align with what I’m seeing in Nebraska,” Osborn told NBC News, adding, “Our message of standing up for small businesses, family farmers and working families is resonating because Nebraskans are listening to them, standing up for them, and standing up for them in the Senate.” senator who will be a strong voice.
Republicans in the state have tried to paint Osborne as a Democrat, pointing to independent Sen. Bernie Sanders’ support for a 77-day strike in 2021 by a mechanic at a Kellogg plant in the state.
Noting that the Democrats have withdrawn Osborne’s strike was supported by bipartisan politicians, including then-GOP Gov. Pete Ricketts. called the company to negotiate with the striking workers in December of that year.
Advertising costs there remained relatively low, at least compared to other Senate races considered competitive.
In September, Fisher and his supporters spent $1.8 million to support him and blast Osborne, while the former union worker and his supporters spent $2.7 million.
Republicans say the race will swing in Fisher’s favor ahead of Election Day, signaling Trump’s strength in the state. Former president confirmed Fischer last month.
In a statement, Fisher’s campaign manager Derek Oden pointed out internal campaign survey earlier this month, which showed Fisher leading Osborne by 6 points, just outside (but still within) the margin of error. (Fisher won each of his two Senate terms by double digits.)
“We expect this positive trend to continue as more Nebraskans learn that Dan Osborne is not an independent — he’s a liberal Democrat in disguise,” Oden said.