LAS VEGAS — Democratic Nevada Assemblywoman Shannon Bilbray Axelrod stood at the head of a conference table Wednesday night to thank volunteers for their hard work. But the volunteers weren’t there to boost her campaign for Clark County commissioner.
They urged voters to support “Question 6,” which was further down the ballot would establish the right to abortion in the state constitution.
The effort to pass Question 6 is not clearly tied to a political party or campaign, but Axelrod was confident the measure could boost his bid in a Democratic-leaning county.
“They have to go all the way down the ballot” to get to Question 6, Axelrod said. “So it’s helpful.”
But the big question remains whether Axelrod and other Democratic candidates are on the battlefield across the country. As many in the party hope, he can carry these abortion initiatives to victory in next month’s election.
Constitutional amendments to expand or protect abortion access will go to voters this fall in 10 statesincluding the presidential battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada and the Senate battlegrounds of Montana and Florida.
Polls show that ballot measures are widely popular in many states, with results consistent with success there have been similar initiatives The US Supreme Court in 2022 Roe v. In other parts of the county after he overturned his decision on Wade.
But the polls also reveal a sizable gap in support between the pro-abortion rights amendment and Democratic presidential and Senate candidates campaigning on a pro-abortion rights platform.
With the future of abortion access appearing directly on the ballot, some voters — esp Republicans and independents—effectively isolated the issue from candidates in other races they would decide.
“It’s almost like ‘Choose Your Own Adventure,'” said Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, a nonpartisan polling and research firm focused on Nevada, Arizona and other Southwest states.
Noble said voters in states like Arizona and Nevada can feel comfortable supporting a ballot measure that protects abortion rights, while letting other key issues like the economy and immigration dictate their choices in other big races.
“People will be able to vote on these measures — abortion or anti-abortion — but having them on the ballot allows them to separate the issue from the Senate or presidential election,” Noble said.
Abortion rights ballot measures won in every state where they appeared on the ballot in the 2022 and 2023 elections, including conservative-leaning ones. But in a presidential election season that will feature higher voter turnout and turnout, Republicans say the amendments will have less impact.
“I think the abortion initiative in the midterm elections could definitely be a motivating factor for turnout. In presidential elections, not so much,” Montana GOP Sen. Steve Daines, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told NBC News. “I think voters right now, regardless of whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican, are highly motivated to vote first in the presidential election and then vote down from there.”
Even if their candidates haven’t reached the polling heights of their ballot measures, Democrats still see them as a net positive for members of their party who have made abortion rights a central tenet of their campaigns.
“This abortion ballot initiative is also something that is attracting new voters who didn’t turn out two years ago and are going to vote Democratic this election,” Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha said, referring to the Nevada measure.
Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, which supports Question 6, aims to knock on 1 million doors and make 1.5 million phone calls by Election Day, according to Tova Yampolski, the coalition’s campaign manager.
“I think it will encourage people to vote for people who are pro-choice,” said Jeri Burton, director of membership and volunteerism for the Nevada chapter of the National Organization for Women, which hosted a recent volunteer event and endorsed candidates up and down the ballot.
A A Fox News survey from August 75% of registered voters said they supported passing the Nevada amendment, while only 21% opposed it. More than half of self-identified Republicans and more than three-quarters of self-identified independents said they would vote in favor of the measure.
In the Senate race of Nevada, polls show Democratic Sen. Jackie Rose ahead of Republican Sam Brown. It’s beyond mistakes, even if it’s smaller. The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is neck and neck.
Likewise in ArizonaA proposed amendment to the state constitution to enshrine abortion rights is clearly supported by the majority. A Last month’s New York Times/Siena College poll 58% of voters supported the amendment, and 35% were against it. Broken down by party, 63% of independents and 30% of Republicans said they supported it.
The same poll showed Trump leading Harris among likely voters 50% to 45%, within the margin of error. And in the Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego led Republican Kari Lake 49% to 43%, also within the margin of error. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll Arizona had similar results last month.
“There are other issues that are just as important or more important to people right now,” Noble said. “Abortion is great, but when it comes to being able to put food on the table or buy a house, it’s hard to beat the pocketbook issues.”
in Florida, proposed amendment regarding abortion he also leads Democratic candidates in the polls, albeit by a narrow margin and with a lower ceiling of support.
A A New York Times/Siena College poll was released this week 46% of voters supported the amendment, and 38% were against it. More than a quarter of self-identified Republicans said they supported the measure.
Other polls in August and September showed Florida with a majority of votes needed to clear the 60% threshold to pass.
The New York Times/Siena poll showed Trump leading Harris 55% to 41% among likely voters, and Republican Sen. Rick Scott ahead of former Democrat Debbie Mucarcel-Powell 49% to 40% in the Senate race.
There is little evidence of one in Montana amendment to abortion rights has had a major impact on the race between three-term Democratic Sen. John Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.
There was sparse ballot-size voting there, but polling in the Senate race showed Sheehy in the lead — though Tester, like other Democrats, bent over focuses more on reproductive rights as a campaign issue.
A This week’s New York Times/Siena College poll Sheehy showed Tester leading among likely voters 52% to 44%, a result well within the poll’s margin of error, but also arranged with other public inquiries.
Chuck Denowh, former executive director of the Montana Republican Party, acknowledged that the ballot “will have an impact” on the Senate race and help boost turnout for Democrats. But he was still confident that Sheehy was in a strong position to win.
“A handful more votes on this abortion initiative certainly helps Tester, but it won’t put him over the top,” Denovh said.
The ruby-red state is safe territory for Trump in the presidential race.
Meanwhile, polls in other conservative states where a proposed abortion-rights amendment is on the November ballot don’t appear to show a significant boost up or down the ticket for Democrats.
For example, in Missouripolls show broad support for a constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights, while Republican Sen. Josh Hawley and Trump have strong leads in their respective races.
Democrats admit that such ballot measures are usually more popular than their candidates.
“In every election I’ve ever worked, you always see ballot initiatives outperform politicians by some margin,” said Rocha, the Democratic strategist. “Many politicians are unpopular.”
Bridget Bowman reported from Las Vegas; Adam Edelman reported from New York.