SCRANTON, Pa. – Sixteen years ago, Barack Obama made history by becoming the first black president. Now, Vice President Kamala Harris is joining her in her quest to make history and become the first woman and first Indian American president.
Obama is set to host a rally in Pittsburgh on Thursday that is an important part of this battleground state, which he has held twice, and could decide whether Harris or Donald Trump wins the presidency.
Aides to Obama and Harris see a connection between what fueled his victories and the vice president’s theory of how to win: increasing grassroots turnout, maximizing black voters and “losing less” in large rural areas where differences can emerge. – pause.
“Both of them have effectively taken up the mantle of change, not just through messaging, but through authentic energy and mentality. It resonates with people in a personal way,” says Jesse Lee, a political consultant who worked in the Obama and Biden White Houses. “Like Obama, the more he remains authentic and enjoyable to be around, both on the campaign trail and as president, the more successful he will be.”
Lee said Obama and Harris both have middle-class roots and are facing off against wealthy Republicans — Obama won the battle voters believed he had, defeating Mitt Romney. he cared more about ordinary people like them, said Harris, is on track to repeat.
“The main element of both coalitions was the segment of people on the side of the candidate who were seduced by the ‘businessman’, but who were ultimately looking for people like them,” he said.
Paulette Aniskoff, Harris’ top adviser in Pennsylvania and a former Obama aide, told NBC News that she sees “similarities” between her current and former boss. It begins with Harris’ emphasis on the ground game and door knocking, which “were at the core of the Obama organizing method.”
He said Obama and Harris share a philosophy of being “everywhere” and listening to voters, including in hostile territories. But he declined to set specific targets for how well Harris should fare in cities, suburbs or small towns.
“The puzzle is making sure we get enough votes from everywhere, including red states. We can’t just raise the score in Philadelphia. It’s the old style of organizing – just going to cities and mobilizing,” Aniskoff said. “And when we’re talking about these really small margins that campaigns often come down to, that’s how you win.”
Obama aide Eric Schultz, who continues to advise him in the White House, said that while “no two campaigns are the same” as times change, “there are some parallels.”
“What he’s building is like a movement that’s bigger than a campaign and represents big ideas like freedom,” Schultz said. “He created a level of excitement that caused people to rally around him because his election could represent who we are as a country. “His campaign has been smart and ambitious in using technology to reach a younger audience and mobilize supporters.”
Harris’ Black Voter Conundrum
Central to Harris’ hopes is to dominate the black electorate and disrupt Trump’s desire to make modest gains with young black men.
Cornell Belcher, a former pollster for Obama, said there was “no evidence” that large numbers of blacks went for Trump in this election. In fact, Harris said there has been a “phenomenal” increase in black voter turnout since replacing President Joe Biden on the ticket.
Under Obama, the number of blacks voting for Democrats increased, but then went away right back after leaving office. “It needs to win the black vote like other groups,” Belcher said.
Belcher said Trump and the Republican Party “have an unprecedented bias against and targeting of African-American men.” “Is it strategically smart? Yes, that’s totally smart on their part.”
But according to him, recently polling shows that black voters have shifted toward Harris’s campaign over the past month and a half. “Their voter turnout numbers have improved across the board and especially in battleground states. … He has the potential to see an Obama-like performance in terms of both turnout and performance,” Belcher said.
That’s a priority for Quentin James, founder and president of Collective PAC, a $4 million effort aimed at attracting and mobilizing black male voters for Harris in key battleground states.
“We want to make sure black men turn out to vote in numbers we haven’t seen since Obama. We think there is both a threat to democracy and an opportunity to provide an amazing future for our children and families,” James said. “And we clearly cannot continue to be frustrated and give up on the system. We have to actually show up at the ballot box and change the system. So the victory and success for us will be a record number of black people coming out to vote in November.”
He said he and Harris had an Obama-like energy.
“Whether it’s fundraising or rally sizes, it feels like the Obama days all over again,” he said. “And it’s an important point to close and stop the MAGA movement.”
Trump changes the equation for Harris
Rally a roaring crowd here On Wednesday, Trump went after Obama and, as he often does, made sure to emphasize his middle name, a move critics denounced as a racist dog whistle.
“Barak Hussein Obama. Has anyone heard of Barack Hussein Obama?” Trump said as the Scranton crowd erupted in excitement.
Trump’s candidacy highlights a key difference between the Obama and Harris coalitions. Obama kept the Democratic margins of defeat low in red rural areas before Trump overthrew them dramatically with a right-wing populist appeal. But while Obama struggled in the suburbs and among well-educated white voters, many of those voters soured on the GOP in large part because of Trump’s inflammatory style and anti-Democratic leanings, giving Harris an opportunity.
Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg cautioned against assuming that anyone can repeat Obama’s performances in 2008 and 2012, especially in rural and small-town areas where Democrats have fallen since he left the scene.
“Obama was a phenomenon in 2008,” Greenberg said. “But Hillary Clinton did it terribly,” he said, adding that a reasonable target for Harris in rural America is between the two.
James, the founder of Collective PAC, said Obama’s legacy is at stake this year as he works to help Harris replicate that element of the coalition he built in 2008.
“It’s also a bigger political moment where his legacy is at stake,” he said. “There is a question of whether his election was accidental.”