Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, Senior Supreme Court Correspondent Lawrence Hurley looks at how the upcoming election looms over the high court as justices return for new terms. Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray analyzes the state of the election four weeks after Election Day.
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Election chaos threatens after Supreme Court resumes operations
By Lawrence Hurley
The Supreme Court returned from its summer break on Monday with a fresh slate of cases to decide, but one issue that still remains in the spotlight: the presidential election.
The court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, including three justices appointed by former President Donald Trump, is likely to be asked to hear the cases before and potentially after the election. This happens during every election.
But whether such controversies will be blockbusters like the 2000 Bush v. Gore case, which effectively tipped the tide in George W. Bush’s favor, or duds like the various attempts to overturn Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 remains to be seen. .
Unlike lower courts, judges decide which cases to hear and, in most cases, decline to intervene, as in Trump’s 2020 efforts.
“Something is going to happen,” said Nate Persily, an election expert at Stanford Law School and a contributor to NBC News. “I don’t think they will look at a case until the election, but there will be attempts to attract them.”
The Supreme Court’s new nine-month term officially began Monday, when all nine justices appeared in the courtroom to hear oral arguments in two low-profile cases. It was the first time the justices have appeared together in public since the previous term ended in early July with a series of rulings, including one that delivered Trump. a big win In a federal criminal case related to an attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
The court also published a long list of cases it refused to hear ahead of the new term, including the abortion debate Between Texas and the Biden administration and the appeal brought by Elon Musk’s X investigating election interference Trump’s.
This comes after the court on Friday announced 13 new cases to be decided in the coming months, including a offered by arms companies Dismissing Mexico’s lawsuit to hold it accountable for the violence there.
⚖️ Not just a football school: Lawrence sees an increasingly conservative influence on the Supreme Court, which counts Justice Amy Coney Barrett among its former faculty at the University of Notre Dame Law School. More →
Here’s what the 2024 polls show with four weeks to go
By Mark Murray
Four weeks before Election Day, 2024 polls continue to show a presidential race that remains on a knife’s edge and within the margin of error.
This is true of recent national surveys NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Collegeit found Vice President Kamala Harris with a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump — 2 points among likely voters, 50%-48%, within the poll’s margin of error (plus or minus 3.7 percentage points).
This is also true in the battleground state polls that will ultimately decide the presidential race.
In Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, Harris and Trump are essentially tied, perhaps with a slight tilt to Trump. While Harris has slightly larger leads in the Great Lakes states of Michigan and Wisconsin, those leads are within the bounds of potential polling error. And the most important recent survey in Pennsylvania – a part 270 the most direct ways to vote for both Harris and Trump—seems like a jump ball.
What can surveys tell us?
Given the poll’s margin of error, historically low response rates when it reaches voters, and yes, past ballot misses, it’s fool’s errand to expect accuracy from political polls.
What we can But the inference from public polling is whether a race is close. And no matter how you view this race, polls in all the different states and nationally, including those with different assumptions of 2024 voters and use different weighing methods.
Surveys are also useful in determining the trend of the competition. And this a a fundamentally different race than existed before President Joe Biden withdrew from the re-election campaign and endorsed Harris.
Polls are useful for gauging a politician’s popularity: Most polls currently favor Harris higher favorable ratings More so than Trump after a sharp increase in numbers since he ran for president this summer. This was not the case When Biden is in the race.
What polls can’t tell us
But polls can’t tell us whether a candidate is going to win the presidency if he’s ahead or behind by 1-2 points in several polls, whether nationally or in key battleground states.
The 2024 race will ultimately be determined by voter turnout, breaking news events, how third-party/undecided votes are cut, and other factors. Ultimately, what matters is which candidate wins in key battleground states that can make a difference of 10,000 or 20,000 votes—margins too small to expect unequivocal clarity from pre-election polls.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 📺 Taking center stage: Harris and Tim Waltz have launched a media blitz that will include appearances alongside media personalities such as Stephen Colbert, Jimmy Kimmel and Howard Stern amid criticism that they avoided the press. More →
- 👏 Clapping: Harris responded to Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ comments that as a woman without biological children, the vice president “has nothing to keep her humble.” More →
- 📝 Demonstration of support: A group of imams have endorsed Harris in an open letter as they step up their efforts to win back the support of Muslim voters during the Israel-Hamas war. More →
- 📞 Avoid calls: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is not returning calls from Harris about storm recovery efforts a week after Hurricane Helene devastated parts of his state. More →
- 🎤 Return to Butler: Trump mixed somber memories with fiery rhetoric as he addressed a large crowd in Butler over the weekend, returning to the site where a gunman attempted to assassinate him months ago. More →
- 💲 Withdrawal of funds: JD Vance said Trump is “consistent” in his views on defunding Planned Parenthood after his previous administration cut funding for the reproductive health group. More →
- 💰 Mixing business and politics: In the final weeks of the race, Trump promoted businesses unrelated to his campaign, from a watch line to a cryptocurrency platform. More →
- 🏛 Out of office: House Speaker Mike Johnson won’t commit to bringing Congress back into session before the election after Biden pushed congressional leaders to provide aid to Hurricane Helene victims. More →
- ⚖️ Recent abortion in Georgia: Georgia’s Supreme Court reinstated the six-week abortion ban, reversing a recent lower court decision that overturned the law. More →
- 🗳️ Aftermath of Hurricane Helene: North Carolina’s board of elections has voted to allow residents in the western part of the state more flexibility to vote by absentee ballot and manage elections as they recover from Hurricane Helene. More →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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