MISSOULA, Mont. — The central conflict in the Montana Senate primary race — and the battle for control of the Senate itself — was on full display Monday night when Democratic Sen. John Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy faced off in a heated debate.
Like other Republican contenders across the country, Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, has cast Tester as a liberal cog in the national Democratic Party machine for failing to address concerns about high spending and border security in a state that former President Donald Trump easily won twice. .
Like other sensitive Senate Democrats, Tester tried to make it personal — voicing his bipartisan bona fides, emphasizing his ties to his red-leaning state and his opponent’s untrustworthiness.
“You have someone like me,” Tester said in his closing statement, describing the race as a “hard” choice. “Someone who grew up 100 miles from where I was born, who will support public lands, who will support our health care system, who will support a woman’s right to choose.”
Sheehy used part of his closing statement to point out that Tester had twice voted to impeach Trump and opposed Trump’s Supreme Court nominees. “He voted with Biden and Harris every time it mattered,” Sheehy said.
The Montana race could have national ramifications and ultimately decide which party controls the Senate.
Republicans need just two seats to take control of the Senate, or one if Trump wins the White House, because the vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the chamber.
There is virtually one seat in the GOP’s column: an open West Virginia Senate race. Montana is the party’s next major target, with Tester running for re-election in 2020 in a state Trump won by 16 points. If the Republicans defeat Tester, they will control the Senate unless Democrats can pull off an election upset in a long time. In a Republican-leaning state, GOP senators are up for re-election.
Tester’s fate may depend on how much Montana has changed in recent years.
Changing state
Sheehy and his Republican allies are betting that the Republican-leaning state won’t support a Democrat in the state, especially with Trump on the ballot.
In her closing statement, Sheehy also noted that Tester spoke in a 2019 interview on MSNBC“You should go back and punch him in the face,” he said of Trump. Tester’s metaphorical remark demonstrated his belief that Democrats from red states shouldn’t hesitate to publicly criticize the then-president — advice he ignored himself for five years.
Sheehy’s attacks highlighted a broader case Republicans have been making against Tester for months. running ads Tester’s images of him supporting Biden and advocating for the president’s mental health tied with national Democrats.
Mont. James Richmond, a 50-year-old IT consultant and voter in Helena, pointed to those comments as he explained why he plans to support Sheehy despite Tester’s support of his work for veterans.
“When was the breaking line for me [Tester] got up there and said, “Joe Biden is great. He is sharp as anything, no problem. And basically telling me what I saw with my own eyeballs, I’m full of s–t,” Richmond told NBC News. “Instead of standing up for Montana values, he went with the Democrats in Washington.”
Richmond supported Trump in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans believe Trump’s dominance in the state will boost Sheh.
Montana has seen an increase in new residents in recent years. Although Montana voters are not registered by party, a National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee analysis of new voters in the state between the 2018 election and early 2023 showed that about 40% were previously registered Republicans in other states and 25% were registered Democrats. .
That’s partly why some Republicans believe the attacks on Shekhin as a rich man from the state have not stopped.
Moment AARP survey A late August poll found Sheehy leading by 6 points, 55% to 49%. The spread was within the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error, but it was in line with other publicly released polls showing Sheehy in the lead. Sheehy had a net favorable rating, with 48% rating him favorably and 45% rating him negatively. The tester, meanwhile, had a net negative rating, with 43% rating it favorably and 52% rating it negatively.
In an interview with Fox News ahead of the debate, Sheehy projected confidence as he reflected on recent polls. Sheehy said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D.N.Y., “has control over John Tester” and that “the people of Montana are waking up to this reality.”
“We’re going to win this job,” said the optimistic political newcomer.
But Tester and his allies believe he can still wipe out Trump supporters — the same AARP poll showed Trump ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by 15 points, 56% to 41%. The question is, can Tester cool down enough to win?
Democratic optimism
Tester’s allies think so. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Gary Peters, D-Mich., compared Tester to Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is up for re-election in 2020, noting that both Maine and Montana have smaller populations, even though Trump lost the state by nine points.
“He’s been able to win tough, tough races,” Peters said of Tester at an event at the National Press Club last week. “So the situation he’s facing now is no different. And he is a great retail politician. Retail is really important, especially in a small state. “Montana is a really big state geographically, but it’s a small state in terms of population.”
Peters said Democrats are committed to committing resources to Montana “all the way through.” So far, Tester and his Democratic allies have spent $105 million on ads in Montana, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact. Republicans are down $82 million on statewide advertising. Tester has far outpaced Sheehy, spending $43.2 million so far to Sheehy’s $11 million.
Tester needs to win over some Trump-supporting independents and Republicans, a tall order in a state Trump is expected to win easily. Tester tried not to anger Trump supporters Monday night by referring to “party leaders” instead of Trump directly when he criticized Sheehy and his fellow Republicans for opposing a bipartisan border security bill earlier this year.
Tester has a history of upsetting the state’s partisanship, winning by more than 30,000 votes over former President Barack Obama in 2012, edging him by 7 points to win a second term. But Republicans point to more recent results and higher turnout as signs of trouble for Tester.
In 2020, former Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock won about 30,000 more votes than Biden for the Senate, but he still lost to GOP Sen. Steve Daines by 10 percent.
Still, some Democrats believe Tester can defy the odds, bolstered by a strong ground game that draws on his support among Native American voters.
At the end of Monday night’s debate, Tester criticized Sheehy for his remarks in 2023, in which Sheehy used stereotypes about alcoholism when talking about Montana’s Crow tribe, according to audio recordings. This was first reported by Char-Koosta News.
“If you really feel that way about Native Americans, you should apologize for the statements you made about them,” Tester said. Sheehy responded by citing his military background.
“Reality, yes, [it was] sensitive. Like many of our tribesmen, I came from the military. We make insensitive jokes and probably lose our color sometimes,” Sheehy said.
Monday wasn’t the first time Sheehy used Native American stereotypes. Hours before the debate, two Native American protesters shut down a campaign event during a rally with Turning Point U.S. Rep. Charlie Kirk.
“You are a racist! you’re a racist!” one protestor chanted against Sheehy as he was forcibly removed from the University of Montana theater where the event was being held Monday afternoon.
Democrats also believe the abortion ballot initiative could boost Tester among voters who want to codify abortion rights in Montana. The Democratic fringe group WinSenate recently launched ads about abortion in the state.
Sheehy said Monday she would respect the decision of Montana voters, but said she supports “common sense, pro-life legislation” that includes exceptions to rape, consanguinity and protecting the life of the mother, and appeared open to supporting federal action on abortion.
Tester called the issue “core to who we are as Montanans” who don’t want the federal government to interfere in medical decisions.
“The bottom line is, if we want to avoid situations like what happened in Georgia, with a woman who died because doctors were afraid to get help because doctors were afraid to treat her, then this is your guy,” Tester said. “If you want someone who wants to make sure women can make decisions about their own health, I’m your man.”
Sarah Thaggard, a 34-year-old caregiver and baker from Helena, told NBC News that she was supporting Tester because she was concerned that Sheehy might support a national abortion ban.
“I just know that if Sheehy takes office, it’s going to look really bad for women,” Thaggard said.
Montana Republican strategist Chuck Denowh, the former executive director of the state party, said in a telephone interview that the abortion ballot initiative is expected to boost Tester, but said the Democrat still faces a tough road ahead in November.
“I don’t think tipping the scales is enough for Tester. I think it helps him a little bit to get a few more voters out there,” Denovh said. “But from the polling I’ve seen, it looks like Sheehy is in a very good position right now.”
Bridget Bowman reported from Washington; Alex Tabet reported from Missoula, Montana.