5 things to watch for at the VP debate: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, the NBC News staff explains what to expect in the vice presidential debate. Plus, the national political reporter looks at how JD Vance and Tim Walz’s poll numbers compare to other recent candidates.

Programming note: Stay tuned tonight for a special edition of the Policy Desk newsletter, where we’ll recap and analyze the Vance-Walz debate.

The 90-minute race, hosted by CBS News, is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET. Follow all the action on our live blog.

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5 things to watch for in tonight’s VP debate

Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota are set to take the stage tonight in New York for their first and only vice presidential debate five weeks after Election Day.

Five NBC News employees thought of something big to watch:

Garrett Haake: Will Vance get the offensive line Trump wants?

Former President Donald Trump sees his running mate as an extension of his own messaging, and he told me in a phone interview today that he expects to see Vance attack Vice President Kamala Harris. favorite issues: immigration and inflation.

I’m watching to see if Vance can do what Trump has so far failed to do: send back Harris’ numbers on those two issues after they’ve steadily improved. By now, Trump’s attacks may feel rote to voters who have heard him hit the same marks over and over. Can Vance, who is less well-known than Trump, provide a new framework on these key issues?

Henry J. Gomez: Getting angry?

The first (and really only) rule for participating in a vice presidential debate is to do no harm. That’s why contenders develop lines to catch their opponents off guard and force them to make damaging mistakes, and why they work so hard with their handlers to anticipate and defuse their time bombs.

Walz has a longer debate record, but Minnesota is something of a laggard on the national political scene. Vance is a less experienced debater, but his team has been putting him in front of tough TV news interviewers for months to iron out any mistakes.

Peter Nicholas: Will we see more of Waltz’s regular guy character?

Remember when Walsh became Harris’ running mate and fueled the race with his regular-guy, high school football coach, outspoken truth-teller persona?

He was seen as one of the Harris campaign’s best assets. In tonight’s debate, find out if Walz reminds voters why she looked so hot over the summer and leaves them wanting more.

Emma Barnett: Memefication of the debate

I’m watching how quickly memes come out of this discussion – Gen Z is interested in Walz and there are less friendly memes about Vance. The fact that Gen Z is starting to pump up memes can be a quick indicator of how they view the discussion.

Raquel Coronell Uribe: Will Vance and Walz shake hands?

President Joe Biden and Trump did not shake hands during the fateful debate in June. As the new Democratic nominee, Harris stepped up with Biden during the September debates, walking across the stage to Trump, whom he had never met before, and shaking hands with him.

Will Vance and Walz, who will meet in person for the first time, follow suit?

Here’s how Vance and Walz’s poll numbers stack up against past VP candidates

By Steve Kornacki

Heading into tonight’s vice presidential debate, JD Vance has an image problem. In the latest NBC News poll, only 32% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 45% have an unfavorable view of him. That’s a minus 13-point net favorability rating — the worst recorded by a VP candidate in an NBC News poll at similar points in an election cycle dating back to 1988.

In contrast, Tim Walz has a slightly net favorable rating, which puts him in the middle of the recent VP candidates:

In the last 10 elections, only two VP candidates were less popular than current Vance.

James Stockdale, who was an aide to independent Ross Perot in 1992 a true American hero. But his story was not known to most of the public, which he didn’t like a decidedly unpolished debate performance. (In all of these NBC polls, respondents were offered “neutral” as an option, which in Stockdale’s case many chose.)

And in 1992, then-Vice President Dan Quayle paid a heavy price for four years of constant mockery in pop culture. started The moment George HW Bush chose him as his running mate in 1988. Quayle’s image was so shattered that part of Bush’s mind trusted him. planned to get him out of the ticket that year.

With tens of millions of people expected to tune in to tonight’s debate, Vance has an opportunity to improve his standing — just as Walz’s flummoxed performance could erase the lead he now holds over Vance. But if Vance’s image problems persist or worsen, the question will be whether his candidacy could cost the GOP ticket votes.

The standard view is that voters’ opinions of presidential candidates override any strong feelings—positive or negative—about the VP picks. This is an example of 1988. As you can see, Democratic Vice President Lloyd Bentsen had a 30-point net positive rating, while Quayle was 5 points below the water — a 35-point difference. However, the Bush-Quyle Republican ticket defeated the Michael Dukakis-Bentsen Democratic ticket.

But with voting in the state so tight in these elections, a small change could still tip the balance. The fear for the GOP involves a certain type of gullible voter who doesn’t care about Harris and the Democrats, but who is emboldened and needs reassurance about Trump. Will Vans only fuel this voter’s reluctance?

After Iran’s attack on Israel, the Biden White House is trying to prevent a wider war in the Middle East.

Dan De Luce, Carol E. Lee, Courtney Kube, Monica Alba and Abigail Williams

The Biden administration’s months-long effort to prevent an all-out war between Israel and Iran is now facing its toughest test since Tehran took over. ballistic missile attack on Tuesday in Israel.

The administration has worked around the clock for the past year to avoid a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, an ally. But now administration officials are facing a potential worst-case scenario, as an Iranian attack would inevitably lead to retaliation by the Israeli military. Such a chain reaction could also involve the United States, as it helps defend Israel and other countries in the region.

The last time Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel — six months ago, in a retaliatory attack after Israel bombed a diplomatic compound in Syria — only a few of the 300 missiles hit Israel, and Washington was able to persuade Israel to refrain from a major attack. revenge

Former US and Israeli officials said that this time, regardless of whether Iran’s attack was effective, Israel would be eager to retaliate.

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That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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