vice president Kamala Harris led by the former president Donald Trump Among Latino voters. However, this advantage has fallen to the lowest level in the last four presidential terms of the Democrats. a new national NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC survey.
Overall, the poll shows that Democratic presidential candidate Harris has been losing slightly with Latinos, who are more likely to cite the economy and cost of living as top priorities than the general electorate. On both of these issues, Latino voters prefer Trump, but most of them prefer Harris in terms of the temperament, skills and necessary mental and physical health to be president.
According to the poll, support for Harris is 54% among registered Latino voters, compared to 40% for Trump, with another 6% saying they are unsure or will not vote. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
While Harris’ 14-point lead is an improvement over President Joe Biden’s lead when he was at the top of the ticket, it’s still lower than the previous leads held by Democratic presidential candidates in 2012 (39 points) and 2016 (50 points). and 2020 (36 points), according to NBC’s combined poll data from past eras.
(According to NBC News exit polls from those years, the eventual Democratic presidential candidates won Latino voters by 44 points in 2012, 38 points in 2016, and 33 points in 2020.)
Similarly, Latino voter preference for the party that controls Congress is 54% Democrat to 42% Republican, a smaller margin than in previous years.
The poll shows that the decline in support for Democrats in the presidential race is due to the flight of Latino men, especially those without a college degree and those under 50. But solid Democratic support from Hispanic women, or Latinas, helped offset some of that erosion.
The survey of 1,000 Latino voters nationwide in English and Spanish also found a surprising split on immigration between Latino voters who favor a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and prevent discrimination, and those who are more focused on border security.
The latest findings highlight the political diversity of Latinos, reflecting the broader divisions seen among the general electorate.
“The Latino electorate is incredibly diverse. It can’t be overstated,” said Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Micah Roberts and his team at Public Opinion Strategy. “We’re looking at Latino voters more than a unified Latino community.”
Trump is ahead on the economy, but more Latinos see Harris as a better leader
The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll asked Latino voters which presidential candidate is better at protecting immigrant rights, securing the border and fighting crime, as well as dealing with abortion issues, the economy and the rising cost of living.
Those polled favor Harris on immigrant rights (39 points ahead of Trump), abortion (+32) and crime (+5).
Trump is leading on inflation and the living wage (9 points over Harris) and the economy (+4 points), as well as border security and control (+13 points). A majority of Latinos in the survey — 54% overall — say the cost of living and the economy are their top concerns.
After watching the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump, Victor Gutierrez, 62, of New Jersey said he leans toward Trump, based on his stance on the economy and the border, “because I believe he has a better understanding of what he’s going to do as president.” security. For Gutierrez, who is Puerto Rican, Harris came off as too much of a performer during the debate, which he said left him feeling insecure.
But when it comes to deciding who has the necessary leadership qualities and personality traits to be president, Latinos favor Harris over Trump in all seven categories surveyed, including having the right personality (+28 points), according to the poll. , having the necessary mental and physical health (+25 points), being honest and trustworthy (+26 points) and representing change (+21 points).
Michelle Garcia, 49, said she sees Harris as a leader who represents communities that have historically had no voice in government — such as women, people of color and immigrants.
García, who is of Peruvian and Puerto Rican descent, spent Saturday knocking on doors in her Maryland community to get people to vote for Harris. Some of the key issues driving García’s support for Harris are his outspokenness on fixing the economy by closing the nation’s growing wealth gap and Harris’ support for abortion rights, he said.
The poll also asks Latino voters which political party is better at addressing the concerns of the Hispanic community. Latino voters favor the Democratic Party by a margin of 47% to 20%—up from when the poll asked the same question in 2022.
But when Latino voters are asked which party better shares their values, the Democratic lead shrinks to 11 points, 39%-28% — down from a 19-point lead two years ago.
Latino support varies widely by gender and religion
In California, Hispanic voters Matthew Delao, 60, and Freddy Arquello, 50, have historically voted for both the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates in previous elections. But this year, Delao decided to vote for Trump, saying he realized he was doing better economically during his presidency. Arquello strongly supports Harris because he believes he has the necessary experience and character to lead the country.
“There is no comparison. You’re talking about a former attorney general, someone who has served the public,” Arquello said of Harris, “as opposed to someone like Trump who has no moral standing.”
But Delao firmly believes that Democrats “donate too much to people who don’t need it,” he said, adding that whoever wins the White House “must focus on the United States, their people.”
Their breakdown shows how evenly Harris and Trump split the vote among Latino men, each with 47% support, compared to Harris’ 26-point lead among Latinos, the poll shows.
That’s a change from NBC’s combined poll in 2020, when Biden led Trump by 20 points among Latino men. Young Hispanic voters aged 18-34 also favored Harris over Trump by 10 points (51%-41%), down from Biden’s 44-point lead in 2020 (66%-22%).
Among Latino men, according to the poll, Trump has more support than men under the age of 50 (who, according to Harris, 51% to 42%) and those without a college degree (those who favor Trump, 51% to 38%).
Meanwhile, Harris’ stronghold remains with Latinas over 50 (who won them 74%-22%) and Hispanic women with college degrees (61-35%).
As a college graduate who worked her way through school and is still paying off student loans, García believes Harris is better equipped to understand “what it’s like to struggle.”
“It’s a humbling experience. It takes courage. As a woman, it represents me,” García said.
The poll shows support is split among religious Latinos.
Catholic Latinos support Harris Trump by 20 points (56% to 36%), while Trump leads among evangelical Latinos 64% to 28%. Non-religious Latinos favored Harris by more than 40 points (71%-24%).
A surprising divide on immigration
What’s striking in the survey is a shift in Latinos’ attitudes toward immigration, as well as a stark divide over their immigration priorities.
Sixty-two percent of Latino voters believe immigration helps more than it hurts, while 35 percent think it does more harm than good. The 35% who say immigration hurts more than it helps is the highest share of Latino voters to come this way in the two decades since the question was asked.
Additionally, when asked to pick their biggest priorities, 52% of Latino voters said preventing discrimination against immigrants and creating a path to citizenship was more important, compared to 46% who said securing the border and stopping immigrants from entering the country illegally was more important.
Other findings
In the race for control of Congress, Democrats hold a double-digit lead in congressional preferences, but that’s down from past election cycles.
In this poll, 54% of Latino voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 42% want a Republican in charge.
That 12-point margin is the longest since September 2012 (when Democrats had a 45-point lead), September 2016 (when it was 34 points), October 2020 (26 points) and September 2022 (21 points). represents a decrease. .
Demographic Profile of Latino Voters
- 52% say they speak mostly English, while the rest speak mostly Spanish or both.
- 56% trace their family heritage to Mexico, 16% to Puerto Rico, 11% to Spain, 5% to Cuba, and 5% to the Dominican Republic.
- 49% say they are Democratic, 37% Republican, and 13% independent.
- 32% say they are liberal, 37% moderate, and 29% conservative.
- 49% describe themselves as Catholic, 21% as Protestant, and 28% as other/none.
The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters. 53% of respondents were contacted by mobile phone, 10% by landline phone, and 37% by text via the Internet. In total, 20% of the interviews were conducted in Spanish. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.