democrat Kamala Harris He leads the Republicans Donald Trump 5 points among registered voters, 49%-44% A new national survey from NBC News.
Although the result is inside request‘s margin of error, which represents a change from the last NBC News poll, when President Joe Biden was still in the running for president in 2024. In that July poll, Trump led Biden by 2 points, 45% to 43%.
A new poll shows key voting blocs that have moved since Biden’s departure, and those that haven’t really moved.
The biggest change is among young voters aged 18-34, who are largely divided Between Biden and Trump in July but now support Harris by 23 points, 57%-34%.
The share of black voters supporting the Democratic ticket has also increased from Biden’s 57-point lead in July to Harris’ 78-point lead in this new poll.
In addition, Harris’ lead with women voters (a 21-point margin) is larger than Biden’s (11 points).
But other key voting blocs — including Latino voters, seniors and independents — haven’t changed much since Biden withdrew from the 2024 race.
Latino voters backed Biden 54% to 38% in a July poll; in that poll, Harris led Trump by a similar margin of 54% to 35%. Biden had a 9-point lead among independents, 39% to 30%, with many unwilling to choose between Biden and Trump.
The results and margin are similar to where Harris and Trump are now: 43%-35%, an 8-point spread.
And among seniors, Trump and Biden were largely tied in July, with Republicans at 48% and Democrats at 47%.
In the September poll, the picture between Harris and Trump is the same: 48% Trump, 47% Harris.
The national NBC News poll was conducted Sept. 13-17 among 1,000 registered voters — 870 of whom were reached by cellphone — and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The margins of error for these different subgroups are greater than 3.1 percentage points.