The battle for the first battleground vote may have been decided before a single vote was taken this week. Weapons of choice: personal inquiries. Likely winner: Vice President Kamala Harris.
The Nebraska story of Democrats replacing Harris with President Joe Biden in a wild election season and Republican Donald Trump surviving two assassination attempts as he seeks to become the first former president in modern history to avenge his loss. The 2nd Congressional District, based in Omaha, is one of the most attractive sub-districts.
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Party operatives and political analysts admire the district because it’s a highly competitive field in one of only two states — the other being Maine — that awards electoral votes to the candidate with the most votes in each congressional district. As the recent presidential election boils down to tens of thousands of votes spread across several states, there are scenarios that could determine who wins the Electoral College and the presidency in Nebraska’s 2nd District.
So Trump petitioned the full court to change Nebraska’s law to give all electors to the statewide winner — who won 58.5% of the statewide vote in 2020. But this week, his efforts were in vain. GOP state Sen. Mike McDonnell — a former Democrat — said he would not support the plan.
As strong as the GOP’s lobbying efforts have been — Sen. Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, has visited the state to push for the law change — the Democrats’ counterattack has been more effective.
In an interview with NBC News, Jane Kleeb, chairwoman of the Nebraska Democratic Party, said she relied on her 18-year relationship with McDonnell to lobby him. So did other Democrats and thought leaders in the state. They told McDonnell that if he rejected Trump, he would have a better chance of winning the mayoral nomination in Omaha — a city that is more heavily Democratic than the larger region. They also pointed to lawn signs and other symbols of enthusiasm for the Harris campaign in the city.
Democrats have spent $6.7 million on ads in Nebraska since Harris became the party’s standard-bearer, compared with $170,000 for Republicans, according to AdImpact.
“We had an audience that needed to make sure we had all the facts and credible information when they were deciding whether to stay with us,” Kleeb said.
Words were one form of persuasion. But the data likely sealed the deal. McDonnell was presented with the results of a private Democratic poll of the district, which shows how much his chances of winning the mayoral election have improved if he does not go with Trump. The poll has not been made public, but the fact that Democratic officials are testing the question suggests he has an opening to at least turn prominent Democrats into allies if he makes a bid to run the city.
McDonnell did not respond to a request for comment.
Unable to move enough legislative votes into his column, Trump lost a chance to sweep all five of Nebraska’s electoral votes without campaigning. The second private poll, conducted by Republicans and shared with NBC News by a source familiar with the results, shows why Trump is so eager to change the rules and why Democrats have reason to be confident about Harris’s chances in the 2nd District. vote.
In that poll, it is reported that Harris is 9 percentage points ahead of Trump. In 2020, Biden won the district by more than 22,000 votes — a larger margin than each of his battleground wins in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, and good enough for a spread of almost 7 percentage points.
As a result, the district is not seen as the most likely tipping point by either camp. If Trump wins on election day, it could be a good indicator of his winning the presidency. Likewise, Harris could win the district and lose the overall.
Neither he nor his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, campaigned there, though aides to Trump say they haven’t written off the district. And they haven’t announced plans to do so.
For now, Democrats feel good about the possibility they’ll look back this week as the moment they close their primary ballots. Kleeb said the Biden camp has provided the resources it needs to make a full get-out-the-vote effort in the November election and will not be taken for granted.
“Everybody in politics knows that tomorrow something can change the race,” Kleeb said. “We are not taking anything for granted and we will continue to talk to voters.”
Kristen Welker contributed.