New focus groups of skeptical young people planning to vote in this fall’s most critical battleground states suggest it’s all about Donald Trump for these voters.
The former president has been a dominant figure in American politics and culture since he was a teenager — for some, even earlier. Those leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris described their choice as a vote against Trump rather than a show of support — the “lesser of two evils” or “a step in the right direction, even if it’s a small one.”
Conversely, those leaning toward Trump were more likely to describe their vote as positive support for Trump, recalling the “prosperity” and “stability” they associated with his first term as part of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group. cooperation with Syracuse University and research firms Busy and Sago.
The poll showed a significant gender gap in the race, with Trump leading among men and Harris leading among women. While Democrats have long performed better with younger voters, the gender gap persists among this group: This month Follow the NBC News Generation Z poll Powered by SurveyMonkey It found that Harris led by a wider margin among Gen Z women, 30 points, than Trump by 4 points among Gen Z men. (within error).
Two campaigns have made noise about their attempts to target young people — Trump through the world of influencers and martial artsand Harris through targeted ads and the continued refrain about vice presidential candidate Tim Walz’s past is one assistant football coach. Given that these voters live in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where small numbers of voters regularly decide, the latter difference among these young male voters may be key.
A distinct difference emerged in how these voters ultimately preferred each candidate. None of the Harris-leaning voters are actively voting for Harris.
“Young Harris’ young men are so traumatized by Trump 1.0 that they are desperate to avoid its sequel, while young male Trump educators remember Trump 1.0 so fondly that they want to do it again,” he said. Busy president Rich Thau, who moderated the sessions.
This trend was evident in two focus groups, one with seven Harris-leaning voters under the age of 30 and a second with eight leaning toward Trump.
“The endorsement of Kamala Harris seems more like a rejection of Donald Trump and the current Republican Party. It comes from a few that I feel strongly about, like LGBT rights, reproductive rights, whatever you want to call them beliefs or topics. So it makes it impossible to support anybody who is in the Republican Party right now,” said William C., 29, of Morton, Pennsylvania.
Three young men from Pennsylvania—Jake T., 26, Noah H., 25, and John M., 23—all used the phrase “lesser of two evils” to describe their choices. another, Andrew H., said he chose who would “do less harm.”
“Kamala Harris is a step in the right direction, even if it’s a small step. I really don’t like MAGA politics, and a lot of the Republican Party is basically that extreme, and I really don’t like that,” said John M. “It kind of comes down to the lesser of two evils, but I feel like there’s a little more promise with it.
Trump-leaning voters were more mixed, with four saying they actively support Trump, while another four say they primarily oppose Harris.
“Selfishly, I think my life was better when he was in office than it is now, money wise and geopolitical wise, things like that. And I feel like I trust him more,” said Drake L., 27, of Philadelphia. “When he was in office, I feel like the world has never had so much conflict. I feel like things were being done, like, I don’t know, interest rates were always low, the housing market was good.
Eric R., 22, of Kewaskum, Wisconsin, mostly pointed to foreign policy as his reason for supporting Trump.
“I liked the way he handled international conflicts. I believe that if he were the president now, what happened in Israel would not have happened. “I believe the same thing about the Ukraine-Russia war,” he said.
“And I’m just worried that with Harris and without Trump, we’re going to have to be the international policeman as usual and get into one of these two conflicts. “I believe that the United States and the world were a little bit safer with Donald Trump doing diplomacy for the United States.”
Harris-leaning voters raised broader concerns about the direction Trump is leading the Republican Party and how his presidency is leaving the nation. But for Harris, there was also a positive case for how voting would improve their lives.
“If he follows through on what he’s running for — if he raises taxes on the wealthy or gives more help with drug costs — it could actually do something good for our economic system and lower the cost of living,” said Joel M., 24, of Eau Claire, Wisconsin. said the old man from the city.
While Trump-leaning voters spoke positively of his time and position and what he might accomplish in a second term, their problems with Harris were more personal than the Democratic Party.
Several have criticized her being the party’s nominee — the successor to President Joe Biden after he decided not to run for re-election in July, skipping the primary process. Two criticized Harris’ laughter, while others criticized what they perceived as his lack of strong political convictions.
Many of these young people said they rely at least in part on mainstream news, but two Trump-leaning voters in particular argued that they could no longer rely on those outlets. Social media and podcasts also made up a significant portion of the news diet, helping to inform participants’ views on politics.
“These young men, especially those leaning toward Trump, reflect an indifference to or rejection of traditional news sources in their claims of fact-checking ahead of the vote. “Seeing an unverified claim or meme somewhere on X can be a defining data point for some if they vote,” said Margaret Talev, director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship in Washington.
Nevertheless, both groups admitted that their candidate had disadvantages. For Harris supporters, it was a perceived shift in policies from when he ran for president in 2019 (a “180” change, as Andrew H., 23, of Philadelphia, described it). There were also concerns about whether his current policy positions were genuine and that he was avoiding the tough questions. Some have also expressed concern that he is not liberal enough on issues such as the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Trump supporters’ concerns about their candidate are primarily focused on the candidate’s personality.
“When he’s in a pinch, he can just fall back on lies and word salad. He has … answers and real facts to back up what he’s saying, but he just loses himself in pauses and gets so far off the mark until a few sentences go by that he’s unprofessional and just can’t get over the word. vomit,” Bret A. Trump, 29, of Philadelphia said of Trump.
“I think so [it] really undermines his credibility and trust and overall professionalism as someone who should be seen as a leader,” he continued.
But none of those voters said they could realistically see themselves changing their votes, although one progressive, a leftist critic of Harris on immigration and Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, said it was possible she might vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
The main concerns of these voters differ according to their politics. Harris-leaning voters have sown economic worries, raising concerns about climate change, humanitarian crises and the future of democracy at large. But for Trump-leaning voters, the economy loomed large, at the top of nearly everyone’s list.
The group also split on abortion rights, another key issue in the presidential election.
All but two voters who leaned toward Harris said abortion would be a big factor in their vote.
Andrew H., who is originally from Oregon but now lives in Philadelphia, said he has “seen that lack of access has really detrimental effects, especially for low-income people and people of color across the country.
“Bodily autonomy is a fundamental right, and that definitely played a big role in my decision,” said Andrews, who leaned toward Harris.
Only one Trump-leaning voter said abortion would be important to them because they believe in “protecting life at any stage.”
But in the words of Brandon S.: “We’ve got bigger fish to fry.”
At the forefront of generational change in politics, 12 out of 15 respondents said their generation had a harder time than those before them, mostly due to economic concerns.
“Just look at what our parents could buy for $10,000 once. I just tried to buy a house two years ago and I kind of went through the same struggles that you go through. “Nowadays, you have to make $150,000 to buy a standard three-bed, two-bath house,” said Derek H., 27, of Kaukauna, Wisconsin, who leans toward Trump.
Asked to describe their generation, many of these young people painted a negative picture. Among the expressions used by these men were “unenthusiastic”, “burnt out”, “overexcited” and “hopeless”. But some preached a more optimistic tone, with words like “sustainable” and “courageous.”
Some of them have political differences with their family members. Two Harris supporters said they had close family members who planned to support a candidate they hadn’t, while four Trump supporters said the same.
The approval of family members did not change their opinion.
Bret A., who plans to vote for Trump, said of his political differences with his mother, “We had a heated discussion and learned that we were never going to agree.” don’t talk about it.”
William C., who plans to support Harris, echoed the sentiment.
“I’m trying to make sure that politics doesn’t have anything to do with how I feel about my family, whether I support their ideas, or who I support as a candidate.”
“So I just try to answer honestly, but not really care about what they’re saying.”