Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar comments on the latest installment of the NBC News Deciders Focus Group series, which features young men from battleground states who are skeptical of both candidates. Plus, senior political reporter Jonathan Allen and senior Capitol Hill reporter examine how Democrats managed to avoid a major swing vote in Nebraska.
Sign up here to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday.
Young people, for or against him, see the election as everything about Trump
By Ben Kamisar
New focus groups of skeptical young men planning to vote in this fall’s most critical battleground states show that for them, this election is all about Donald Trump.
A total of 15 men under 30 from Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the former president has been a dominant figure in politics and culture since his teenage years, if not before — participated in the conversations as part of NBC News Deciders. Produced in collaboration with Focus Group Syracuse University and research firms Busy and Sago.
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here to take it during the week.
Here’s what we learned:
First focus group: Harris Leaners
All seven young, male voters who said they were leaning toward Harris saw their choice as a vote against Trump rather than a show of support for the Democratic nominee.
Three people from Pennsylvania used the phrase “lesser of two evils” to describe their choices, while another said they chose who would “do less harm.”
“Kamala Harris is a step in the right direction, even if it’s a small step. I really don’t like MAGA politics and a lot of the Republican Party is basically this extreme and I really don’t like it,” said John M., 23. “It kind of comes down to the lesser of two evils, but I feel like there’s a little more promise with it. .”
Second focus group: Trump-leaners
In contrast, of the eight men under 30 who lean toward Trump, four said they actively support the GOP nominee, while another four say they primarily oppose Harris.
Those who rated their vote as positive support for Trump recalled the “prosperity” and “stability” they associated with his tenure in the White House.
“Selfishly, I think my life was better when he was in office than it is now, money wise and geopolitical wise, things like that. And I feel like I trust him more,” said Drake L., 27, of Philadelphia.
The fight for young voters
The poll showed a significant gender gap in the presidential race, with Trump leading among men and Harris leading among women. While Democrats have long performed better with younger voters, the gender gap persists among this group. This month Follow the NBC News Generation Z poll Powered by SurveyMonkey It found that Harris led by 30 points among young men among women under 30, a wider margin (within the margin of error) than by 4 points over Trump.
The two campaigns made noise about their attempts to win over young men – through Trump’s world influencers and martial artsand through Harris targeted ads and a rebuke of vice presidential candidate Tim Walz’s background assistant football coach. And given that these voters routinely live in swing states that are determined by a small number of voters, the latter difference among these young, male voters may be key.
Read more from our focus groups →
Harris may have closed the primary ballot this week
By Jonathan Allen and Garrett Haake
In a wild election season, the story of Omaha, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District has been one of the most compelling subplots.
The district is a highly competitive field in only two states—Maine is the other—that award an elector to the candidate with the most votes in each congressional district. As the recent presidential election boils down to tens of thousands of votes spread across several states, there are scenarios that could determine who wins Nebraska’s 2nd Electoral College.
So Trump petitioned the full court to change Nebraska’s law to give all electors to the statewide winner — who won 58.5% of the statewide vote in 2020. But this week, his efforts were in vain. Republican state Sen. Mike McDonnell — a former Democrat — said he would not support the plan.
As strong as the GOP’s lobbying efforts have been — Sen. Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, has visited the state to push for the law change — the Democrats’ counterattack has been more effective.
Jane Kleeb, chairwoman of the Nebraska Democratic Party, told NBC News that she relied on her 18-year relationship with McDonnell to lobby him. So did other Democrats and thought leaders in the state. They also pointed to lawn signs and other symbols of enthusiasm for the Harris campaign in the city.
Since Harris became the party’s standard bearer, Democrats have spent $6.7 million on ads in Nebraska, according to figures from the tracking firm AdImpact, a drop in spending in the district compared to $170,000 for Republicans.
McDonnell was presented with the results of a private Democratic poll of the district that showed how much his chances of winning next year’s promising race for mayor of Omaha — a city that leans more Democratic than the larger region — had improved if he didn’t. Don’t go with Trump.
The second private poll, conducted by Republicans and shared with NBC News by a source familiar with the results, shows why Trump is so eager to change the rules and why Democrats have reason to be confident about Harris’s chances in the 2nd District. vote. In that poll, it is reported that Harris is 9 percentage points ahead of Trump. (Joe Biden won the district by less than 7 points in 2020.)
The ad wars are largely about Harris’s definition
By Ben Kamsiar
Between September 1 and September 20, more than half of every dollar spent on advertising in the presidential election was spent in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – with Pennsylvania alone accounting for 1 in 4 dollars spent, according to AdImpact. Add Georgia and it’s over 60% of the total.
The spending shows how broadly Democrats and Republicans agree on the states at stake and how one side will win the election. And what those ad dollars are actually buying tells the main story about the campaign.
Kamala Harris’s campaign is airing an even mix of positive and negative ads on broadcast television, while Donald Trump’s campaign is running almost exclusively negative and contrasting ads—demonstrating how focused voters and both campaigns are on identifying the vice president. A three-time candidate who inspired radical ideas among American voters.
“It’s simple: everyone has made up their mind about Donald Trump. Trump’s numbers are the stickiest things in politics; they don’t budge,” said Republican strategist and presidential campaign veteran Alex Conant.
“The thing that carries over is Harris – we’ve seen a lot of movement in his numbers since he entered the race,” Conant continued. dramatic increase In positive numbers since Harris was selected as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 🚨 You are now in New York: New York City Mayor Eric Adams faces five federal charges, including wire fraud, bribery and soliciting contributions from a foreign national, according to a 57-page federal indictment unsealed Thursday. More →
- 📺 Advertising Wars: After Sen. Sherrod Brown and his allies enjoyed an ad-spending advantage throughout the spring and much of the summer, Republican Bernie Moreno and outside groups supporting him won Ohio’s Senate race this month by a 2-to-1 margin over Democrats on the air. More →
- 📺 Ad Wars, Continued: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has announced a multi-million dollar investment in television advertising in the Texas and Florida Senate races. More →
- ✈️ Flying South: On Friday, Harris is set to make his first trip to the southern border since becoming the Democratic nominee. More →
- 🍟 Raise Me: During an interview with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle, Harris again confirmed that she worked at McDonald’s, denying Trump’s claims that she never worked there. More →
- 🖥️ Deepfakes: Ben Cardin, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was recently targeted during a Zoom call by a man who identified himself as a former senior Ukrainian official. More →
- 🙅 ‘Not accurate’: The Republican mayor of Aurora, Colorado, said he wants Trump to visit the city and show that his portrayal of migrants there is false. More →
- ⛔ The wrong way: A recent national poll by NBC News found that nearly two-thirds (65%) of voters said the country was on the wrong track, while 28% said it was on the right track. More →
- 🗒️ Woman to woman: A group of women is organizing online to post pro-Harris sticky notes everywhere women see them—from bathrooms and mirrors to the backs of tampon boxes. More →
- Follow live updates from the campaign trail →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
If you are a fan, please share with anyone and everyone. They can register here.