Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, we explore how Republican candidates in key races are still struggling to find their message on abortion. Plus, senior political analyst Chuck Todd questions whether Kamala Harris can continue to win the battle to define herself in the final weeks of the race.
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Two years after Roe ended, abortion still trumps Republicans in key races
By Bridget Bowman, Adam Edelman, and Henry J. Gomez
Republicans are still struggling to resolve the abortion issue as they face a barrage of Democratic attacks from Ohio GOP Senate hopeful Bernie Moreno. final comments – suggesting that this is not a problem “especially for women over 50” – highlights the party’s ongoing problems.
The GOP is confident of taking control of the Senate this year, thanks to its road to a majority in red states. But some Republicans warn that comments like Moreno’s are unhelpful as he tries to unseat incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, in Ohio.
“Bernie of,” a Republican working in Senate races texted when the Moreno story broke this week. “Honestly, I think Bernie is going in the right direction, but in doing so, he’s given Sherrod an opening.”
Democrats are beating Republicans on abortion across the country. In the seven most competitive Senate races, Democratic campaigns and outside groups ran 33 abortion-related TV ads in the last week alone, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact. Only one Republican ad, a Spanish-language ad by an outside group targeting Democratic Sen. Jackie Rosen of Nevada, mentions abortion.
Democrats successfully employed a similar strategy in 2022, when they defied expectations and retained control of the Senate despite President Joe Biden’s poor approval ratings. Some Republicans warned that the party’s failure to stand up to abortion attacks cost them important seats that year.
In 2022, exit polls showed Democrats holding an 11-point lead on abortion. The latest NBC News national survey A majority of voters (54%) say Vice President Kamala Harris would do a better job dealing with the problem, while 33% say former President Donald Trump agrees. It was one of Harris’ highest scores on the list of issues tested in the survey.
Republican strategist Gail Gitcho said the problem for the GOP is “not falling into the same trap as what happened in 2022. And what happened in 2022, Republicans did nothing to respond to abortion. Nothing.”
GOP Senate candidates have so far enjoyed speaking out on the issue.
Only three candidates in targeted Senate seats – Nevada Sam BrownPennsylvania Dave McCormick and Maryland Larry Hogan — Launched abortion TV commercials shot by AdImpact. They all feature candidates who say they won’t support a federal ban. Senator Rick Scott from Florida has also started an advertisement promises to protect in vitro fertilization.
Are we at peak Kamala Harris?
By Chuck Todd
Depending on the numbers you choose to consume, it’s safe to say that the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is a toss-up and a lean Harris. Since their only debate, there hasn’t been a poll showing anything but progress for Harris and trouble for Trump — even polls with Trump ahead.
In particular, Harris closed the gap on Trump’s key issue preferences on the economy and the border. While Trump is still seen as stronger on these issues, his lead over Harris is lower than when voters compared him to President Joe Biden.
Take my most trusted survey: NBC News survey It is managed and co-hosted by the bipartisan team of Republican Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies and Democrat Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research. Harris also turned some personal attribute questions negative for Biden — questions about having the ability to be president or having the mental and physical fitness for the job.
Then there is the issue of abortion rights. While voting against Trump is an asset for Biden, it appears to be a bigger advantage for Harris. For example, an NBC News poll showed him leading by more than 40 percent among white women with college degrees, a group of voters Biden won in 2020, but by a significantly smaller margin.
Now, it’s not all earnings for Harris. The big change in Trump voters, both from 2016 to 2020 and this time around, is his level of support among Latino voters. According to exit poll results, in 2016, Trump lost the Hispanic vote by about 40 points. In the 2020 exit poll, he lost this group by just over 30 points. And in this new NBC poll, Harris’ lead was less than 20 points.
At this point, it’s safe to say we have a good idea of how the vote will break down demographically. What we don’t know is how intense the activism will be among the various groups.
For most of this short campaign, I would describe this race as “Trump will lose, but Trump is losing.” Now, I would describe the race as a jump ball with a slight edge to Harris as he still has room to grow.
But it’s still a race to determine Harris with the remaining undecideds. So far, Harris is winning the battle for self-definition. Can he keep it up for another five weeks?
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 👀 Hazard assessment: Trump and Harris now receive presidential-level protection from the Secret Service, which one former agent said had “never been done before.” This comes as US intelligence officials said during the Trump campaign informed the former president About “specific threats from Iran to kill him”. More →
- 📄 The result of the assassination attempt: A bipartisan report by lawmakers investigating the attempted assassination of Trump in Pennsylvania found the Secret Service made “predictable” and “preventable” mistakes. More →
- ⚫ More Secret Service issues: A Secret Service agent has been placed on leave after a “misconduct allegation” about a Harris employee. More →
- ☑️ Closing hours: The House overwhelmingly passed a funding bill to avert a government shutdown next week after scrapping a Trump-requested proposal that would have required Americans to show proof of citizenship to register to vote. The Senate is also expected to accept the measure and send it to Biden’s desk. More →
- ⬇️ Average target: During an economic speech in Pittsburgh, Harris vowed to govern as a pragmatist who would not be held captive by ideology, noting that he would invest nearly $100 billion in new manufacturing. More →
- 🔎 2025 vision: A new NBC News poll shows that nearly all voters familiar with Project 2025 view the conservative policy roadmap in a negative light. More →
- 🙋♀️ Stefanik’s mission: U.S. Representative Elise Stefanik of New York leads the record breaking Republican women serving in the chamber. More →
- ⭐ Celebrity Status: Harris’ campaign is gathering celebrity endorsements, which the Trump campaign sees as an opening to paint the Democrat as out of touch with average Americans. More →
- ✔️ Confirmation with star sign: Emgage Action, one of the country’s largest Muslim political groups, supported Harris despite his fierce opposition to his Middle East policies. More →
- 👕 T-shirt talk: The Washington Post investigates why political shirts are getting funnier. More →
- Watch live from the campaign trail →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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