A double-digit surge in popularity, growing Democratic enthusiasm and a primary preference for representing “change” drew criticism of the vice president. Kamala Harris brought forward and changed the 2024 presidential election, According to a new national survey from NBC News.
A little more than six weeks before Election Day, the poll finds Harris leading the former president by 5 points. Donald Trump among registered voters, 49% to 44%. While the result is within the margin of error, it’s a clear shift from the July poll, when Trump had a 2-point lead before President Joe Biden’s speech.
But the transformation in the presidential race goes far beyond the horse race. For starters, Harris’ favor has increased by 16 points since July, the largest increase for any politician in an NBC News poll since then-President. George W. Bush’s position has risen after September 11 terrorist attacks.
Harris also has an advantage over Trump looking competent and effective as well having the mental and physical health to be president—a reversal of Trump’s leadership on these qualifications Biden.
In a contest between the current vice president and the former president, with an electorate who thinks the United States is “on the wrong track,” Harris has an advantage over who best represents change and who can lead the country. in the right direction.
“In July, there was a headwind heading straight for President Biden, obscuring a clear path to victory. The winds have turned in Kamala Harris’ favor today,” said Jeff Horwitt of Democratic pollster Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
Still, Trump has significant advantages on the economy and inflation, though those numbers are smaller than when Biden was still in the race. Two-thirds of voters say their household income falls short of a living wage, and voters cited cost of living as their top concern at the polls.
What’s more, the poll shows that part of Trump’s erosion has come from Republicans who are not staunch supporters of the former president but may return to him, as they did in 2016 and 2020.
“We’ve seen this movie before,” McInturff said. “They can be mad at Trump and end up coming back and voting the way they would vote for Congress to favor a Republican versus a Democrat.”
In general, The 2024 presidential race is similar to four years ago, with both pollsters agreeing that the Democratic candidate is more popular than the Republican candidate, voters still deeply polarized, and the final outcome unclear.
“This whole move by Harris puts the race back to where it was in 2020 at the end of the campaign: a very close election,” Horwitt said.
This all-new NBC News poll, conducted Sept. 13-17, follows two pivotal months in American politics, including Biden’s July 21 withdrawal from the 2024 race, two party conventions, two vice presidential elections, an assassination attempt comes later. Trump in July and two months later another open attempt and the first (and maybe only) debate between Trump and Harris.
In the first NBC News poll since those events, Harris has the support of 49% of registered voters. Trump with 44% of the vote. Another 7% either choose another candidate, say they are not sure, or say they will not vote.
In the expanded poll with third-party candidates, Harris leads Trump by 6 points, 47% to 41% — Robert Kennedy Jr. 2%, Jill Stein 2% and Libertarian Chase Oliver 1%. (Respondents were only able to choose who they really were among the major third-party candidates appears on the ballot in states.)
It represents both ways of trying the race A change from a July poll in which Trump led Biden by 2 points in the head-to-head poll test and 3 points in the expanded ballot test. September results The Democratic ticket’s best performance in the poll since the summer of 2023.
In the current head-to-head matchup, Harris leads among black voters (85%-7%), voters 18-34 (57%-34%), women (58%-37%) and white voters. college degrees (59%-38%) and independents (43%-35%).
All of these leads are larger for Harris than Biden’s when he was still in the race, except among independents, where Harris’ 8-point lead is nearly identical to Biden’s lead in July.
(RELATED: For more on how the race has changed since Biden’s departure, see here.)
And Trump leads among men (52%-40%), white voters (52%-43%) and white voters without a college degree (61%-33%).
71 percent of all voters say they have made up their minds, while 11 percent say they might change their vote — a change from April, when 26 percent said they could still change their minds.
Harris leads abortion, fitness and change; Trump is ahead on the key issues of the border and inflation
The NBC News poll also tests Harris and Trump on 13 different issues and presidential qualities.
Harris’ best results are on protecting immigrant rights (where he beats Trump by 28 points), abortion (+21 points), having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (+20 points), and having the right temperament. being president (+16 points) and representing change (+9 points).
By comparison, Trump’s biggest successes are border protection (+21), economy (+9) and cost of living (+8).
However, these current Trump advantages are lower than when Biden was still in the race. When NBC News asked voters these questions about Trump and Biden in JanuaryTrump led the president by 35 points on border security and immigration control, and 22 points on dealing with the economy.
In April, voters favored Trump by 22 points over Biden on inflation and cost of living.
A historic leap in Harris’s popularity
Aside from those issues and qualifications, what stands out in the poll is Harris’ growing popularity since rising to the top of the Democratic ticket.
In July, 32% of registered voters had a favorable view of Harris, compared to 50% who viewed him unfavorably (-18 net rating) — nearly identical to Biden’s rating.
But in this new poll, Harris is now at 48% favorable, 45% negative (+3).
In the 35-year history of the NBC News poll, no other major-party presidential candidate has seen such a surge in popularity in the polls.
The only increase in consecutive NBC News polls greater than Harris’s is George W. Bush’s post-9/11 spike (when his favorability number increased by nearly 30 points); then-President George HW Bush’s popularity spike after the first Gulf War (when his approval rating increased by 24 points); and independent Ross Perot had a 23-point jump when he re-entered the 1992 presidential race after dropping out earlier.
On the contrary, in the new survey, Trump’s net rating has not changed since July – 40% positive, 53% negative (-13).
Warning signs for Harris
Despite this improvement for Harris, there are warning signs for Democrats in the poll. First, inflation and the cost of living remain key issues for voters. 66% of voters say that their family’s income falls short of the subsistence minimum.
In addition, while Harris led Trump on the theme of “change,” a separate question shows a potential weakness for Biden’s presidency: 40% of voters said they were more concerned that Harris would continue to take the same approach as Biden.
This compared to 39% who were more concerned that Trump would continue the same approach as in his first term as president; 18% say neither is a concern.
Meanwhile, 65% of voters say the country is on the wrong track, but 28% say the country is headed in the right direction. While the margin of error is smaller than it has been for most of the Biden-Harris administration, the sour outlook closely mirrors how voters will see things in 2016 and 2020 when they decide to switch parties in the White House.
Although the share of Democrats with high interest in the election – those who scored a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale – has increased since July, the interest of young voters remains low compared to the last presidential election.
Other survey results
In the last debate between Harris and Trump, 29% said the fights on September 10 made them more likely to support Harris, and 12% said they made them more likely to support Trump; 57% said it didn’t make a difference.
In the race for control of Congress, 48% of registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 46% want a Republican-controlled Congress. (This is essentially unchanged from July, when it was 47% Democratic, 46% Republican.)
And continue Project 2025 — A conservative policy plan with ties to former Trump administration officials that Democrats have promoted in their campaign — 57% of voters view it unfavorably, compared to just 4% who view it favorably.
The national NBC News poll was conducted Sept. 13-17 among 1,000 registered voters — 870 of whom were reached by cellphone — and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.