Something happened in North Carolina when Vice President Kamala Harris captured the Democratic nomination in late July.
Thousands of volunteers started pouring in. According to the campaign, of the more than 23,500 people who stepped forward, 94% had never stepped forward. In the week since President Joe Biden stepped down, voter registration among women has risen sharply overall, according to a tracking firm, and has been even more pronounced among women of color.
And all this happened before the worst scandal He shot GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, a self-proclaimed “Black Nazi,” according to CNN.
Robinson was already being shown regularly In ads targeting women in North Carolina, he advocated banning all abortions, saying it was not about a mother’s life.
“It’s about killing a kid because you weren’t responsible enough to lower your skirt,” Robinson says in the video.
The turmoil around Robinson and signs of increased energy around Harris keep Democrats optimistic in the Tarheel State, especially among women, even if the state hasn’t turned blue since former President Barack Obama won in 2008.
Part of the Harris campaign’s strategy in North Carolina, according to a campaign official, includes efforts to increase turnout not only among black voters, but also among women in and around the suburbs. This is above the attempt to carry out attacks in rural areas of the state. They also target Republicans who they determine have been turned off by Trump or Robinson. This includes Counties where Nikki Haley isthe former governor of neighboring South Carolina over-performed in the Republican primary.
At a Sept. 12 rally in Greensboro, NC, some of Harris’ biggest punch lines came around reproductive rights, an issue that has galvanized women voters across the country.
“Think about it, because of Trump’s abortion bans, women who miscarry are not being cared for,” Harris said. He then referred to his discussion with Trump. “When asked Tuesday night, Donald Trump declined to say whether he would veto a national abortion ban. Remember when you refused to answer that question?
North Carolina saw an increase in new female registrants in the week of July 21 — after Biden stepped aside and endorsed Harris — compared to the same week in 2020, said Tom Bonier, who tracks voter registration trends at the firm TargetSmart. In the week after Harris became the presumptive nominee, there was a 61.5% increase in voter registration among North Carolina women. In the same week, there was a 145% increase compared to 2022. Among them, there was a 557% increase in voter registration among black women under the age of 30.
Bonier takes all this to point to higher Democratic voter turnout in North Carolina.
“It’s massive. It’s not just a whole bunch of new registrants and voters who are very likely to turn out, but an indication of a higher level of enthusiasm among this group in general.” “This means that women in general, especially young women, including women of color, are turning out at higher rates than they might otherwise. That’s definitely all we need to put North Carolina in the game.”
In 2020, former President Donald Trump won with only 1.3% of the vote. Since then, the Supreme Court overturned Roe Wade, and the state has seen population growth around the capital cities of Raleigh and Charlotte.
“From the suburbs to the cities and our rural communities – reject Donald Trump and Mark Robinson’s extreme Project 2025 agenda to ban abortion and increase costs to families,” said Dory MacMillan, spokeswoman for the Harris campaign in North Carolina. statement. “Meanwhile, our campaign is gaining momentum as we continue to show up in communities across the state to share Vice President Harris’ vision for Moving Forward, where our rights are protected and not just accessible to every North Carolinian. but go ahead.”
Republicans have their doubts. Rural North Carolina in particular is tough Trump country. Trump’s campaign has repeatedly expressed confidence in the state. Still, he poured money It indicates that it recognizes that there is a danger to the advertisements there. On Saturday, Trump will attend a rally in Wilmington, N.C. Robinson is not expected to attend.
“Good luck with that,” said one Trump ally, a Democrat who has made gains with suburban women.
A former North Carolina Republican Party official questioned the idea that Robinson’s problems will ultimately make or break the situation for the GOP. In North Carolina, because of high population growth in urban centers and especially Republican-leaning suburbs, Democrats “took a hit regardless,” the former official said.
“Now you have political intervention,” they added. “It will be a test of whether the downvote hurts the top.”
Dallas Woodhouse, North Carolina executive director of the conservative group American Majority, called the revelations about Robinson “concerning” and “disappointing.”
“Nobody wants to see something like this about their political party five or six weeks before election day,” Woodhouse said. “I think some sober thinking this morning shows you that the North Carolina base, not a lot, but a little bit, continues to support Trump.”
But Thomas Mills, a longtime state consultant and founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com, Robinson’s controversies have the potential to dampen Republican voter turnout in general, he said, noting that Democrats have repeatedly vouched for Robinson’s character. A day after CNN broke the news, Harris had already launched a TV ad bringing the two together. Trump called Robinson “Martin Luther King on steroids.”
“It’s being judged, and it’s just discouraging Republicans,” Mills said. He noted that there is a part of the Republican Party already disaffected with Trump that will become even more closed after seeing the allegations against Robinson. “If those people decide not to vote, or if they’re going to vote Democratic in a state like North Carolina where the difference is 5.5 million to 75,000 votes, that’s going to go a long way.”
Morgan Jackson, a longtime Democratic adviser to longtime gubernatorial candidate and now-Attorney General Josh Stein, highlighted how evenly North Carolina is divided between deeply rural parts of the state and more urban and suburban population centers.
“It is a 50-50 state. We’ve polled this race extensively, it’s as tight as it gets,” Jackson said of the presidential race. “The truth is, there are very few purple counties in North Carolina. Most of them are dark blue and become blue or dark red and redder.
“The way you win statewide in North Carolina,” he said, “you win by margins.”