Over the past 24 hours, a slew of new national and state polls have come out — especially from battleground Pennsylvania — and they tell three consistent stories after last week’s presidential debate.
First: Democrats are in a stronger electoral position today than they have been this year thanks to a shift at the top of the party’s presidential ticket.
Second: The battleground map looks more favorable for Democrats than ever before. This is especially true in the Great Lakes swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Third: The presidential race remains close, with most of these national and state poll results within the margin of error. Whatever the movement, we are far from one party or the other, we are clearly breaking this race.
Stronger position of Democrats
First, let’s look at recent national polls.
A Fox News survey Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 50% to 48% among registered voters by 2 points, within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, according to data released Wednesday.
That was a slight improvement for Harris from last month’s Fox News poll, which had Trump at 50% and Harris at 49%.
And while that move is also within the margin of error, the Fox poll had Trump slightly ahead of President Joe Biden for most of the year he was at the top of the ticket — with one exception (prior to the June 2024 Biden-Trump debate).
In comparison, the national New York Times/Siena College survey 47% to 47% shows a close race among voters.
Still, that’s slightly better for Harris than the publication’s previous poll showed before September’s debate — Trump 48%, Harris 47%, a nice margin of error change. And that’s significantly better than where the polls stood for Biden when he was still in the race (he trailed Trump by between 1 and 6 points in 2024).
A more favorable battle map for Harris
Next, state polls show that Harris is doing better in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than Biden did last year, and certainly after his June debate against Trump.
In Michigan, a Survey at Quinnipiac University Of likely voters (as in all state polls listed here), Harris has 50%, Trump 45%, and another 4% who chose someone else or were undecided. A The Marist Inquiry 52% chose Harris, 47% chose Trump, and another 2% chose another option or remained undecided.
Recent polls in Pennsylvania have ranged from a close race to Harris Jr.’s margin of error. Quinnipiac University Survey Harris 51%, Trump 45%, 5% chose someone else or were undecided. The A recent New York Times/Siena College poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46%, don’t know/refused 4%.
But Marist and The Washington Post Both showed an even race in Pennsylvania, with 49% in the first poll and 48% in the second, with the rest undecided or choosing others.
And in Wisconsin, a list of new, errant margin polls fared slightly better for Harris than for Trump. AARP survey Harris got 49%, Trump 48%. Quinnipiac and Marist also showed 1-point Harris margins, 49%-48% at Quinnipiac and 50%-49% at Marist.
Still close competition
Despite the Democrats’ stronger position, polls show a tight race.
This is especially true for voting in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A Trump win in just one of those states would give him the race for 270 electoral votes.
The outcome of the 2024 race is unclear, with polling results largely within the margin of error.
After all, a change of just 2 or 3 points would have taken the race back to when Biden was still in the running.