Third-party candidates have played a big role in deciding key presidential race states over the past few years — meaning which (and how many) candidates actually end up on the statewide ballot could matter a lot in the close election.
This reality has led to a series of protracted legal battles over access to ballots across the country. In recent weeks, the supreme courts of North Carolina and Michigan have issued separate rulings allowing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the first case, he removes himself from the ballot but keeping it on the ballot in the second state. After spending millions to run in state elections, Kennedy attempted to backtrack after endorsing former President Donald Trump.
Kennedy initially sparked fears among Democrats that a scion of one of the Democratic Party’s most influential families could jeopardize their path to the White House. But Kennedy’s base of support increasingly inclined to the right In 2024, it will ultimately attract more of the people who might support Trump. There are other third-party candidates, including some familiar faces and some new candidates, whose presence on key state ballots could affect November’s results.
Michigan and Wisconsin are poised to have the most crowded presidential primaries, while Arizona and Pennsylvania (certification is still pending in mid-September) will have only a handful of recognized third-party options on the ballots, and only one in Nevada.
Along with Michigan, critical Wisconsin is the other state where Kennedy couldn’t get himself off the ballot – although he is asking the court to allow it.
Why is it important?
Democrats need look no further to find an election where a strong third-party vote contributed to their defeat. In 2016, 6% of all voters voted for third-party candidates, this dynamic It helped reduce the vote share that Trump needed winning major battlegrounds. 2020 when a third party its share fell to 2%and Joe Biden defeated Trump.
Libertarian and conservative-leaning candidates have long helped Democrats win certain presidential and down-ballot races, while more progressive candidates have long helped Republicans in other races.
But after the 2020 election, in which key states are decided by just tens of thousands of votes, and before a fall where similar differences are expected on the electoral battlefield, which candidates will ultimately make it onto the ballot.
The situation is still in some flux, at least for the moment. Future court decisions and ballots could change the landscape at any moment. But that’s where third-party candidates’ efforts to get on the battleground ballot stand for now.