TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – The nation’s biggest swing state — at least so far — is becoming one of the most unprecedented.
Florida has historically been held as a very important state for any White House contender, resulting in huge amounts of national money fueling big candidate rallies, surrogate events and campaign ads across the country. the state’s 10 most expensive media markets.
But for the first time in recent political memory, the 2024 presidential race has left Florida as a comparative afterthought. Democrats here have tried to maintain momentum and voter intensity, but almost every measurable factor suggests Florida is not a real game for them in this year’s presidential election.
“Are you happy that we are a solid Republican state? Before … it was a presidential election, we’d be on a razor’s edge with the state of Florida,” Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis told a party-loyal crowd at a gathering at South Florida’s Hard Rock Casino last weekend. . “Because if the Republicans couldn’t win Florida, then you had no way to win the Electoral College.”
Florida has long been red at the state level as Republicans now hold a voter registration advantage of more than 1 million, and they firmly control nearly every branch of political power. But in the past, when large sums of money came in during presidential races, the state was considered a winner for Democrats.
This money has almost completely dried up:
- For example, in September 2020 alone, more than $57 million was spent on Florida TV ads, $38 million from President Joe Biden’s campaign, and $19 million from Donald Trump’s campaign. According to AdImpact, a media buy tracking service.
- In 2022, a non-presidential election cycle, national Democratic groups spent $2 million in the state, up from nearly $60 million in previous midterm elections.
- So far, a total of $2.1 million has been spent on television ads for the presidential election during the 2024 election cycle.
“The drop in spending mirrors the election ratings provided by the Cook Political Report, which show that statewide races are no longer as competitive as they once were,” he said. AdImpact analysis The sum total of Florida’s cratered political ad spending.
The Florida Democratic Party has adopted the mantra of “something is happening in Florida” in 2024, a sign that no one expects them to win the state, but as they see it, there are certain dimensions that alone are reasons for optimism. this year, but for the overall party and infrastructure restructuring.
“With the work we’ve done and the underlying momentum, Florida is competitive in 2024,” said Florida Democratic Party Communications Director Eden Giagnorio. “Now imagine what we can achieve with real investment.”
The party’s efforts so far This includes knocking on 1.3 million doors, making 3.1 million phone calls and sending over 10.9 million text messages. The party also points to several DeSantis-backed school board candidates lost Florida’s August 20 primary saw the governor’s first real political loss in years.
“This is in stark contrast to the virtually non-existent Trump operation in Florida as our organizing apparatus flexed its muscles to hand Ron DeSantis a humiliating defeat in the first real test of this election cycle.” memo Distributed by the Florida Democratic Party.
The Harris campaign says it has 40,000 volunteers in the state — an exaggeration, according to Florida Republican Party Chairman Evan Power.
“We don’t talk about our ground game. They’re using Nikki Fried’s fictitious volunteer numbers,” he said, referring to the chairman of the Florida Democratic Party.
Danielle Alvarez, Trump’s top adviser, said Florida is “Trump country.”
“Why is NBC wasting Matt Dixon’s time on Florida stories?” he said with reference to this reporter. “It’s so embarrassing Kamala Harris is wasting her time in Florida.”
Florida continued to draw the attention of public pollsters, whose polls are a beacon of hope and messaging for Democrats. Morning Advisory Survey was released While Trump had a 2-percentage-point lead over Harris last week, most other public polls in recent weeks have Trump up by 5-7 points.
Democrats have used these public voting numbers as a sign of momentum, but the majority of the public vote is still out of state. 3.2 point win Trump won in 2020, a landslide in a state that had seen presidential races decided by razor-sharp margins at the time.
Veteran Florida Democratic operative Steve Schale argued that even with a Harris loss, the state party could make some long-term gains, but with little spending in the state, an outright victory remains elusive.
“For people asking if Harris can win here, the answer is complicated,” Schale said he wrote. “The reality is their math doesn’t pass Florida — so without the spending necessary to win, the answer is almost certainly going to be no.”
He said he is “realistic” about Harris’ uphill climb in Florida, but added that Democrats in the state can see a silver lining regardless of the outcome.
“My big hope is that all the volunteers that are here will come out and register voters,” Schale said. “If we can rebuild real, permanent infrastructure, that’s a win.”
Harris’ campaign has made trips to the state, but none since he replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee in July.
After Tuesday night’s debate, her campaign plans a swing state tour that includes Florida, but her husband Doug Emhoff, not Harris, will host a planned rally in the Orlando area. Last week, allies of the Harris campaign also launched a “Fight for Reproductive Freedom” bus tour in Florida, which Democrats hailed as a sign of national urgency.
The campaign’s Florida social media account posted, “Lost rain and widespread flooding didn’t stop Jacksonville from showing up for reproductive freedom and the #HarrisWalz bus tour!” placed After the incident in Jacksonville.
“FLA IS. IN THE GAME. #FLinPLAY,” they added.