The presidential debate in June pitted Donald Trump against a weak Joe Biden, who had deteriorated so badly he had to drop out of the race.
The sequel opens Tuesday night in Philadelphia, with a younger Kamala Harris hoping to flip the script and expose Trump as an aging candidate unfit to lead.
Trump faces a different problem. Will he be disciplined enough to abandon the familiar insults and pressures that risk alienating voters who are not part of his loyal base? Can he stick to the issues and perhaps gain ground by portraying Harris as a fraud for having him? changed his position about health and energy policies?
For both candidates, the ABC News-hosted debate may be their best chance to seize the upper hand in a campaign the polls are showing. The debate begins at 9:00 PM ET and is watched by millions. During the eight-week sprint to Election Day, there is no bigger milestone.
Somewhat symbolically, the competition will be held at the National Constitutional Center. With both parties arguing that the nation’s future is at stake — depending on the outcome, 2024 could be its last election — it seems fitting that the candidates meet in a place that celebrates the ideal of self-government.
“Does he calm people down and continue to introduce himself to the country?” asked Robert Rowland, professor of rhetoric at the University of Kansas. “Does it either do something unusual or does it melt where it’s inconsistent? Those are really the stakes.”
What to look for in the 90-minute event:
Is there enough time for Harris to accomplish everything he needs to?
Harris has a lot going on. He succeeded Biden at the top of Bilden in July, and he’s still introducing himself to many Americans who know little about him. A New York Times-Siena College poll last week that interviewed nearly 1,700 likely voters found that 28% still Learn more about Harris. For Trump, who has been popular for decades, the number was just 9%.
Discussions provide one of the greatest opportunities to fill in the blanks. Harris emphasizes his partnership with everyday Americans. Expect her to explain not only her work as California’s attorney general, but also her humble roots as the daughter of a single mother struggling to afford a home for her family.
In addition, it will take time for Harris to take the fight directly to Trump. Stumbling over his words, Biden failed to do so. Harris must prove more capable. He is a former prosecutor and proved no match for Mike Pence in the 2020 vice presidential debates. Vice President, I am speaking. I’m talking,” Pence said politely but firmly when she tried to interrupt him.
As Harris prepares to attack Trump, the Golden Corral can choose from a buffet of material. Trump played a role in the riot that took place in the Capitol on January 6. He has a felony conviction this year for falsifying business records in Manhattan. Or his claim that in 2022 the provisions of the Constitution could be “stopped” for what he unsubstantiatedly claimed was widespread voter fraud in his bid for re-election (Trump later wrote an op-ed denying that he wanted to repeal the Constitution).
Harris’s toughest test may be fending off Trump’s taunts. He called her “filthy” and “dumb as a rock.” Last month he a vulgar message states that he uses sex to advance his career.
Harris studied carefully, worked with his assistants A hotel in Pittsburgh. But no job can produce a candidate for a debater as unpredictable as Trump.
“I suspect there will be some surprises during the debate,” Trump campaign spokesman Jason Miller told reporters during a briefing on Monday.
Former Hillary Clinton aide Philip Raines played Trump in mock debates, reprising his role during Clinton’s 2016 campaign. In an interview before Biden left the race, Reines opened up about what it’s like to stand with Trump. He said he initially considered reading the briefing documents to familiarize himself with Trump’s positions.
Then he decided, “F— this. Trump doesn’t read any papers; I’m not going to read any papers. I rationalized it like I’m really in character here, I’m not going to do anything that he didn’t do.”
Will Trump speak more broadly outside his base?
This will be Trump’s seventh general election debate since 2016; Harris’s first. Trump’s speeches over the years have been extraordinary. Even when he knocked Biden out of the race in the last debate, Trump did not inspire key voting blocs. Signal test a study that measured audience reactions in real time found that independent voters — a privileged constituency — agreed with Biden’s claim that Trump had “alley cat morals.”
Still, Trump kept his cool throughout much of that debate, and he’ll have to do so again this time if he wants to win over suburban women, the independents and undecided voters who are only now focused on him. It could be a promising line of attack for Trump economy. Despite the cooling rate of inflation, prices are still about 20% higher than when Biden and Harris took office.
Another potential weakness that Trump could exploit is Harris’s prosecutorial experience. As San Francisco district attorney, he did not seek the death penalty for a gang member accused of killing a police officer, citing his opposition to the death penalty.
Trump’s allies mentioned this issue during a briefing with reporters before the debate.
“Kamala is not a newcomer to American politics. He has a record as both district attorney and attorney general,” he said. “That record is dangerously liberal, and President Trump will tie it to that record during the debate.”
There is no doubt that Trump will at some point deflect the issues and personalize the contest. It’s just a matter of when and to what extent. Trump is especially caustic when he goes against him. Rowland, the Kansas professor, said the fact that Harris is both a woman and a minority could “trigger” her in a way that repels a good portion of viewers.
“There’s a real danger that she’s going to be governed less than normal because of who she is,” he said, adding that Trump “can’t afford to lose more college-educated women.”
Asked about Trump’s tone in debating with women, one of his allies said it would be no different from the way he confronts his male opponents.
Former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who informally advised Trump on the debate, said at a campaign news briefing: “President Trump respects women and doesn’t feel the need to patronize women or talk in any other way. man.”
Poor moderators
ABC News anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis will moderate, and Trump has already telegraphed his displeasure with the arrangement.
In preparation, he called ABC “the worst network in terms of fairness.” Still, Harris scored a victory of sorts when he agreed to participate, even though he objected to the rule that the microphone would be muted when it wasn’t a candidate’s turn to speak. He wanted the microphones turned on — a reversal of Biden’s choice.
ABC will still have the right to operate both microphones during continuous back-and-forth.
The open question is whether moderators will try to vet candidates in real time, or let them speak freely and leave it up to others to determine who is telling the truth.
No amount of preparation can be sufficient for moderators.
“With Trump, when the moderators say, ‘Okay, we’re going to talk about Social Security in this next episode,’ good luck with that,” Reines said. “He will talk about what he wants. Any response may turn into a fight. You can’t simulate that.”