In the upcoming presidential debates, former President Donald Trump is likely to repeat his claims that Vice President Kamala Harris was a failed border czar, and she will counter by saying that Trump blocked a landmark bipartisan border security deal in Congress.
But 48 hours before that demonstration, the immigration landscape was reset. The US-recognized winner of the July 28 presidential election in Venezuela, Edmundo González Urrutia fled to Spain as President Nicolas Maduro intensified the campaign of repression and issued a warrant for his arrest.
The two nearly coincident events serve as a reality check for American voters about the limitations facing the US administration, regardless of party, in Latin American countries where hundreds of thousands of migrants cross the border each year.
Fernando Rodriguez, a professor at the Joseph Korbel School of International Studies in Denver, Colorado, said there are limits to the U.S.’s influence when it comes to the political dynamics of a country or region. Cuba is an example, he said.
“Once authoritarian regimes are entrenched, it’s hard to change them, and external pressures don’t necessarily do the trick,” Rodriguez said.
As of June, already 7.8 million According to the Office of the Special Envoy for the Regional Response to the Situation in Venezuela, Venezuelans lived outside their country, mostly in other Latin American countries.
Before the disputed elections in Venezuela, More than 40% of Venezuelans surveyed said they would consider leaving If Maduro stays in power, the country.
Since the George W. Bush administration, the United States and other countries have imposed sanctions on Venezuelan officials and their families.
As human rights abuses and the destruction of democratic institutions intensified under Maduro, President Donald Trump followed with “maximum pressure” sanctions. kick him out of the office.
But Maduro persevered, and Venezuela’s economic and humanitarian crisis worsened. As a result, the United States has seen an increasing number of Venezuelans appear at its borders.
President Joe Biden eased some of the crippling sanctions Implemented by Trump, Chevron and later allowed other companies to operate in Venezuela to support talks between the opposition and Maduro. But Maduro failed to follow through on an agreement to move toward fair elections, and only six months later the administration reinstated the oil ban on some companies. Chevron is still allowed to operate in the country.
Venezuela’s electoral body, packed with supporters of Maduro, declared Maduro the winner of the country’s July 28 election, but refused to reveal the results of the vote. Opposition leaders say partial calculations are showing Gonzalez won 70% vote.
Other Latin American and European countries have joined the United States in not recognizing Maduro’s electoral “victory”. The United States recognized Gonzalez as the winner, but not as the president-elect.
The dubious results of the elections paid off deadly demonstrations Associated with a harsh response from Maduro’s forces.
“Few options” and “no quick fix”
In an article for Emissary, a publication of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Carnegie Visiting Scholar Oliver Stunkel writes that the “limited influence” of a coalition of the United States, Europe and Latin American countries refuses to recognize Maduro. election results “It leaves you with a few options.”
“There is little appetite for a renewed campaign of pressure involving sanctions against Venezuela,” he said, largely because previous sanctions worsened the country’s economy and did not remove Maduro.
“Furthermore, many in this group, particularly the United States, worry that broader sanctions could increase immigration,” Stunkel wrote.
As vice president, Harris was tasked with addressing the “root causes” of migration, particularly from the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. This role did not include direct involvement in migration and enforcement at the US-Mexico border.
His job was to boost investment in business and other sectors in these countries, improving living conditions that pushed people out. There is disagreement about how well he performed that task.
Jason Marczak, a Latin America expert at the Atlantic Council, writes that the border guard became clear shortly after Harris took office. “There will be no quick fix” to “decades of insecurity, economic problems and poor governance, among other factors” facing the region.
The number of Venezuelans found on the US southwest border this fiscal year is expected to exceed the previous fiscal year by 266,071.
As of July, the total for this fiscal year was 230,582. Fiscal year 2024 begins on October 1, 2023 and ends on September 31, 2024. Customs and Border Protection total not yet published for August. However, since March, the monthly totals for this financial year have been lower compared to the same month of the previous year. For example, the number of Venezuelans encountered in April this fiscal year was 18,371, compared to 32,733 in April 2023.
Biden reinstated deportations Venezuelans as a condition of election negotiations with Maduro. They have been stalled for years amid strained relations between the US and Venezuela and human rights concerns. He also built An application for Venezuelans and others to apply for legal entry into the United States and granted temporary protection status to some.
Trump also provided protection from deportation to Venezuelans during his administration.
Rodríguez said Trump has previously criticized Biden’s easing of oil sanctions, and Harris is likely to have a similar rebuke in the debate.
According to him, it is difficult to overthrow the dictatorship.
But Biden and Harris could argue that they have been more effective in turning Venezuelans against the Maduro regime and reducing pressures that drive people out of the country.
“If you want to do something about migration, what you shouldn’t do is help make things worse for Venezuelans,” Rodriguez said.
For more from NBC Latino, sign up for our weekly newsletter.