Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
On today’s episode, we look at tonight’s battle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Plus, national political reporter Steve Kornacki explains why Pennsylvania could be the most critical battleground state.
Programming note: Tune in tonight for a special edition of the From the Policy Desk newsletter, where we’ll recap and analyze the presidential debate.
The 90-minute race, hosted by ABC News and simulcast on NBC, is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET. Follow all the action on our live blog.
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7 things to watch for in tonight’s debate
In the future tonight’s debate Between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump — the first meeting between the two candidates — seven NBC News staffers weighed in on the big issue they’ll be watching:
Kristen Welker: How will candidates address their weaknesses?
Tonight, I’ll be watching how each candidate addresses their biggest weaknesses on the issues. For Trump, it’s abortion, and for Harris, it’s his key points on some of his key policy positions. More →
Chuck Todd: Who are the candidates talking to?
One of the things I’ll be looking for is which voters each candidate is doing their best to appeal to directly. Every campaign has a theory about which coalition of voters should win. What’s striking is that both campaigns have the same challenges, but so far they’ve tackled them differently. More →
Monica Alba: Can Harris Create a Viral Moment?
One of Harris’ biggest moments from his 2020 debate with then-Vice President Mike Pence came in the form of a response when he interrupted and said several times, “I’m talking.” It seemed like something he planned, so we’ll be watching to see if Trump has a similar response ready should he speak over it, though muting the microphones raises the additional issue of how that might play out in real time. . More →
Garrett Haake: Can Trump stick to campaign strategy?
Trump’s campaign has a well-defined and well-crafted strategy tonight: frame Harris as “dangerously liberal” and unfit to be president. Sound familiar? The problem for Trump’s campaign is that candidate Trump has long stuck to this framework, which he often seems disinterested in. More →
Gabe Gutierrez: What does Harris say about immigration?
One thing to watch is whether Harris continues his march to the center on immigration policy and how he communicates his more nuanced stance on building more of a border wall. More →
Jonathan Allen: How does Harris project his power?
Trump always tries to show himself as the strongest of the candidates. He does this with his words and his physical swelling. This is an important trait for voters – they want to know that a leader will protect them, and perceived power is part of that. The question is: What will Harris do to show his strength against Trump? More →
Emma Barnett: Is there a handshake?
One thing to watch out for at the start of the debate is whether Harris and Trump shook hands. The traditional handshake to open a presidential debate is a way for the candidates to set the tone and show mutual respect. But shaking hands during the last three presidential terms was not a guarantee. More →
More pre-debate coverage from NBC News
Why is Pennsylvania so critical to either candidate’s path to victory?
By Steve Kornacki
It’s fitting that tonight’s debate takes place in Pennsylvania, because the Keystone State is tied for first when it comes to 270 electoral votes.
With 19 electoral votes, it is the largest single award among seven key battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. To fully offset the mathematical impact of a Pennsylvania loss, each candidate must win at least two other battleground states.
There are ways for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to win the presidency without carrying Pennsylvania, but the paths will be narrow. Consider where the race currently stands. Leaving out the battleground states, if each state voted as they did in 2020, Harris would have 226 electoral votes and Trump 219.
Then, using the seven battle provinces, there will be a total of 44 different province outcome combinations. Of these combinations, 21 (47.8%) would result in Trump reaching at least 270 electoral votes; Of those, 20 (45.4%) put Harris at 270 or higher; and three (6.8%) will result in a tie.
Now, for the sake of this exercise, let’s say Pennsylvania goes for Harris. That would increase her to 245 electoral votes and reduce the number of remaining statewide combinations to 16. And 10 of the remaining 16 combinations (62.5%) would result in Harris hitting the magic number of 270; Of the remaining combinations, only six (37.5%) would give Trump at least 270 points. In other words, just winning Pennsylvania would leave Harris with a clear majority the rest of the way to 270.
None of the other battleground states would have changed the playing field to such an extent. If Harris wins any of the battleground states, here’s each candidate’s share of the remaining statewide combinations:
[table]
It should also be noted that a 269-269 Electoral College tie will almost certainly result in a Trump presidency. In that case, the House will choose the winner, with each state delegation getting one vote. Even if they don’t control the House, Republicans will likely control a majority of the delegation.
So if you add tie combinations to Trump’s column, it only adds to Pennsylvania’s singular importance to Harris: win it, and he has a leg up that no other battleground can provide. And that makes the state just as important to Trump. If he wins, he denies Harris the clearest path to 270.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 👀 Close the clock: Despite growing opposition from his own party, House Speaker Mike Johnson vowed to stay the course and bring the government’s funding package up for debate on Wednesday. More →
- ☑️ Fact Check #1: Trump falsely claims that the children underwent surgery during the transition period during school. More →
- ☑️ Fact Check #2: Local police in Ohio, JD Vance, said they had received no credible reports of immigrants harming pets after “people have had their pets stolen and eaten by people who shouldn’t be in this country.” More →
- ⚖️ Trump’s DOJ: Trump has been increasingly outspoken in describing his plans to use the Justice Department to prosecute his political enemies if elected. More →
- ⚖️ Trump’s DOJ, continued: The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta reports on Utah Sen. Mike Lee’s transformation from “Never a Trumper” to an outspoken voice in the MAGA movement and a potential future attorney general in the Trump administration. More →
- 🗳️ Voting Battles: The Missouri Supreme Court has ruled that an amendment to the state constitution enshrining access to abortion will appear on the November ballot. More →
- 🗳️ Voting battles, continued: The North Carolina Supreme Court has ordered Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be removed from the state’s ballots, meaning they will have to be reprinted before election officials can start mailing them out. More →
- 🛑 Not so fast: Trump’s call to mandate free access to in vitro fertilization has drawn a mix of skepticism and outright opposition from Republicans in Congress. More →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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