LAS VEGAS — Montana Sen. Steve Daines came to Vegas with a question: The Senate GOP campaign chairman wants more money to turn the chamber red.
“We have a great map, the best we’ve had in a decade,” Daines told a crowd of hundreds at the Republican Jewish Coalition Summit, an annual gathering of Jewish community leaders, donors and GOP politicians.
“Kamala Harris can’t do anything better [but] they know how to raise money,” said Daines. “We need your help to close the fundraising gap,” he said, asking for donations.
Speaking to reporters after his speech, Daines broke down the Senate map as he sees it and described the obstacle that stands between Republicans and victory.
“I’m worried,” Daines said during a press roundtable in Vegas. “We have more states in our game than we have the resources to cover them,” he simply added.
There are Democratic candidates in the Senate fundraising advantage Over GOP rivals throughout the election cycle, but with Harris rising to the top of the ticket, the wave of money is also flowing into downstate races. Earlier this week, the Harris campaign transferred $10 million to the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.
Even with that cash, Democrats are struggling difficult Senate map they are trying to defend their slim two-seat majority. Republicans need just two seats to clinch the majority, or one if former President Donald Trump wins the White House, because the vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.
Republicans’ best pick-up opportunities are in three GOP-leaning states. Every state’s elected official is a Republican, except for Democratic senators who have more seats this year in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. In these states, Daines predicted confidence, citing a decrease in the distribution of the ticket in the US elections.
West Virginia, which Trump won by nearly 68% in 2016 and 2020, is already in the bag, Daines believes. Democrats have also conceded the race is no longer in the game With the retirement of Democratic-turned-independent Senator Joe Manchin. Governor Jim Justice, who voted alongside his dog at the Republican National Convention, is expected to win.
Daines believes that Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and John Tester of Montana are vulnerable to an increasingly polarized electorate that splits its vote less and less between Republicans and Democrats each cycle.
“It’s becoming more and more red jersey, blue jersey,” Daines said of the end of the ticket distribution. “If this trend continues with Trump winning by significant margins in these three red states, it will be difficult for Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown to win races.”
Daines is also eyeing pickups in three states where Democratic incumbents are retiring: Maryland, Michigan and Arizona, although retired Grand Canyon State Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is an independent who has aligned with the Democrats.
In Maryland, Daines acknowledged that the trend of splitting the ticket will be difficult for Republican Gov. Larry Hogan. But Daines is also optimistic that Hogan’s qualities can help him overcome that hurdle.
Daines believes the fate of former congressman Mike Rogers in Michigan and Kari Lake in Arizona will be closely tied to the outcome of the presidential race.
“President Trump’s results in Michigan — I think they’re going to be fair, pretty close to Trump’s numbers,” Daines said. For Lake, Arizona, Daines believes his victory will depend on Trump’s slightly larger margin of victory. “Lake’s path to victory will be with President Trump winning Arizona by probably 2, 3, even 4 points,” Daines said. “We’ll see where Arizona goes.”
Daines also believes that Republicans can make gains in the presidential battleground states of Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin. In each of those states, Daines also described races that came down to razor-thin edges in races closely tied to Trump’s fate.
Despite all these acquisition possibilities, Daines is still keeping expectations low. “If someone asks me what my number will be, I will tell you that the majority is 51,” he said. “I’m not going to make any other projects.”
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman David Bergstein told NBC News on Friday that Democrats are “in the strongest possible position to defend our majority because we have better candidates in every battleground.”
“We have battle-tested incumbents, formidable recruits and a winning message — while Republican Senate candidates are plagued by daily revelations of their lies, financial scandals and toxic policy agendas,” he said.