Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, national political reporters Bridget Bowman and Ben Kamisar spent hours watching Vice President Kamala Harris’ past debates to understand what she does on stage. Plus, Meet the Press moderator Kristen Welker breaks down the paths to 270 electoral votes.
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Preparation, pitfalls, and breaking the fourth wall: Takeaways from a decade of Harris debates
By Bridget Bowman and Ben Kamisar
Tuesday’s ABC News debate will see Kamala Harris and Donald Trump go head-to-head for the first time and only the third time a Republican has faced off in a debate.
But his past debate performances dating back to 2010 offer some clues about how he plans to make his case against Trump and for his own candidacy — what techniques and pieces he relies on, his potential weaknesses and other common themes that stretch across the state and national years. debates.
He reviewed some of his criticisms of Trump during the 2020 presidential race, calling the then-president “corrupt” and “unpatriotic,” criticizing his “strange” obsession with erasing Barack Obama’s presidential achievements, and what Trump “did.” he said. I don’t understand what it means to be honest” while looking directly at Trump’s running mateMike Pence during the 2020 vice presidential debate.
“I’m talking” Harris repeated during the discussion When Pence talked about him.
And he often comes prepared with memorable one-liners and plenty of statistics to make his case and create a moment that can grab attention long after the debate is over.
Harris diligently prepared Tuesday between the campaign trail and his White House duties for strategic discussions on how to derail Trump and manage his impending attacks.
“He knows that every word, every facial expression matters, and he knows that the stakes are very high at this level,” said Brian Brokaw, a former Harris campaign aide.
One of the main themes in Harris’ past debates: It’s clear how well-prepared he is, often armed with highly specific policy and statistical details or attacks on his opponents.
That preparation paid off for Harris with a number of big moments as well as some that fell flat.
Kristen Welker breaks down the different paths to 270 electoral votes
By Kristen Welker
Steve Kornacki, my other NBC News colleagues, and myself fragmented Here are some different scenarios on our website for how Harris and Trump could get 270 electoral votes to win the White House.
And you can make your own scenarios click this link. But I wanted to highlight four of my different ways – and why they’re worth considering.
Harris’s Sun Belt Road
As Steve Kornacki points out, Donald Trump’s direct path to 270 votes is through the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
But Harris has a counterattack – through the Sunbelt.
Let’s say Trump wins both Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) – where the vote is close. Well, Harris could still get over 270 electoral votes, winning Georgia (16 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes) and North Carolina (16 electoral votes).
Or say Harris lost Nevada too. He could still make up for it by winning Arizona and its 11 electoral votes.
Trump climbs the blue wall
But Harris is winning in Nevada and North Carolina. Even in that scenario, Trump still has a way to 270 electoral votes by sweeping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, or winning either Arizona or Georgia.
Harris’ dream road
If Harris is indeed Obama 2.0 and can continue his summer momentum, he could end up with a map similar to Obama’s in 2008 and 2012. In this scenario, he wins Biden’s 2020 expansion in Arizona and Georgia, as well as Florida. Obama won in 2008 and 2012) and North Carolina (Obama won in 2008).
That brings Harris to the dream scenario of 348 electoral votes.
Trump’s dream road
Instead, Trump’s dream scenario is his 2016 map — plus Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia.
That path, which seemed more possible when Biden was still in the race but seems less likely now, puts him at 339 electoral votes.
Check out our full Road to 270 tool here.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- ✉️ Postal delay: Mail-in ballots in North Carolina were expected to be mailed Friday, but were delayed after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won an appeal to have his name removed from the ballot. A Michigan appeals court also ruled that Kennedy could appear on the ballot there. More →
- ↩️ Another vote for Harris: Former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney said her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, would vote for Harris. More →
- ⚖️ Delay of judgment: Sentencing in the Trump hush money case was scheduled for this month, but a New York judge on Friday postponed it until November 26. More →
- 🎯 Campaign goals: Both Harris and Trump’s campaigns are still targeting a small segment of voters who can be persuaded by economic messaging. More →
- 🗳️ Harris’s Key (stone) situation: The presidential race could come down to Pennsylvania, and the state is proving to be the toughest battleground for Harris to win. More →
- 📺 Debate preparation: The New York Times reports on Karen Dunn, the D.C. attorney who prepared Harris for Tuesday’s debate and has plenty of experience preparing Democrats for these moments. More →
- 🥗 ‘Mismatched Word Salad’: Trump was asked Thursday about his plan to pay for child care, and he stumbled through a long answer. More →
- 🗣️ Walz sharpens his attacks: Walz lashed out at Trump and the GOP at a Pennsylvania rally Thursday, accusing the former president of “s-talking” the country. More →
- 👀 Mama Walz weight: There has been some Walz family drama surrounding the governor’s vice presidential bid, but Walz’s mother told NBC News that she supports her son’s campaign and believes he will end up in the White House. More →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – email us politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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