Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Bridget Bowman explains what the post-Labor Day House ads tell us about the broader political environment. Plus, senior political analyst Chuck Todd examines how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are trying to one-up each other as the incumbent in the 2024 race.
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3 key 2024 trends as told by the battle for the house
By Bridget Bowman
The presidential race has been going on for months, but many House campaigns are saving their resources for the last stretch before pouring money into the issues they want to emphasize the most. It’s happening now with a new wave of TV ads hitting war zones around Labor Day. What happens in the House of Representatives also says a lot about the political environment that will decide the presidential election.
Here are three great ways:
1. Harris and Trump are not currently campaigning for the House of Representatives.
An NBC News analysis of nearly 150 TV ads aired over the past week found no Democratic ads airing in the 44 most competitive House districts identified by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walters directly referenced or featured Donald Trump and only four GOP ads. . Kamala Harris.
It’s hard to imagine what would have happened if Joe Biden hadn’t dropped out.
2. Cost of living is paramount, especially among Republicans.
The high cost of living is a focus for voters, and the issue dominates House races, with nearly a quarter of ads referencing the topic. About 40% of recent GOP ads focus on cost of living, compared to about 16% of Democratic ads. Republicans see the issue as a salient issue up and down the ballot, with voters giving Trump higher marks than Harris in recent polls.
3. Democratic attacks on abortion go largely unanswered, while GOP border attacks do.
Democrats continue to criminalize access to abortion, echoing a core argument of the Harris campaign. Abortion was a top issue among Democrats, referenced in 30% of the party’s ads in the last week. In the past week, just two Republicans have run ads on the issues.
While Republicans have mounted attacks on border security, more Democrats have responded to these missions, with nearly 20% of Democratic ads mentioning the issue. It echoes Harris’ decision to run a border ad within weeks of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee, after Biden didn’t run a single television ad on the border during the 2024 campaign.
How Gen Z voters feel about the Harris-Trump matchup
By Stephanie Perry and Marc Trussler
New Follow the NBC News Generation Z pollSurveyMonkey-backed polls show Harris opening up a lead over Trump with young voters, but trailing Biden’s 2020 margins by a critical bloc.
Half of registered voters under the age of 30 said they supported Harris, compared to 34% for Trump. One in 10 respondents said they would not vote in the presidential elections, and 6% supported another candidate.
Harris says 60% of young voters say they are almost certain to vote this fall. That figure matches the 60% of 18-29-year-olds Biden won four years ago. NBC News exit poll results.
Gender difference: Young women said they would vote for Harris by 30 points. Younger men also said they preferred Harris, but by just 4 points over Trump.
Education gap: Harris led Trump among college graduates (56% to 30%) and currently enrolled college students (54% to 29%). Support between the two candidates is tied at 41% among young voters who do not have a college degree and are not currently in school.
on issues: Three out of every 10 voters under the age of 30 said inflation and cost of living is the most important problem facing the country, followed by threats to democracy (11%) and abortion (9%).
Harris and Trump are trying to paint each other as the current president
By Chuck Todd
How do you run a swing election when the two candidates are the current vice president and the most recent former president?
This question may disguise itself as a puzzle, but it’s easily the single most important question if you’re trying to figure out who will win the 2024 election when voters decide who is the “current president.”
In short, the losing candidate is likely to be the candidate who, according to the majority of swing voters, looks more “like the current president.” And next week’s debate will go a long way to determine that, depending on how well the candidates portray the other as part of the current challenge.
There’s an obvious reason both campaigns are furiously trying to cast the other as the incumbent: Voters are angry, and have been for nearly the entire 21st century.
When you step back and examine what US voters think about whether the country is on the right or wrong track, the country has been on the “wrong track” — call it mass — for nearly two decades. and generations of political decline.
The results of our presidential and interim elections at that time showed that the majority of the electorate in question was looking for change.
Only two national elections this century — 2004 and 2012 — have not seen a change in one of the following three Washington powerhouses: the White House, which has changed partisan hands three times (2008, 2016, and 2020); Senate four times (2002, 2006, 2014 and 2020); and House four times (2006, 2010, 2018 and 2022).
Both candidates have and should have a hard time making a case for change simply because of their current and past jobs.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- 🎯 Targets Russia: The Departments of Justice, State and Treasury announced Wednesday a joint effort to target sanctions and criminal charges. More →
- 👀 Close the clock: House Republican leaders are considering their options after Trump pressured them to shut down the government later this month if Congress doesn’t pass a proposal to create new election rules. More →
- ❓ 2020 whip: Trump admitted during an interview with podcaster Lech Friedman that he lost the 2020 election “by a whisker,” though he later said the contest was “rigged.” More →
- 🙅 Low energy: Industry experts are skeptical of Trump’s promise to halve energy costs within 12 months of taking office. More →
- 🗣️ Trump’s speech: As Trump sought to woo Jewish voters, he made a point of attacking three of the most prominent Jewish Americans in politics and denouncing any Jew who supports Democrats as “absolute morons” who need to have their “heads checked.” More →
- 📃 House Republicans v. Walz: A House committee has issued subpoenas to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walza and others over how federal prosecutors are responding to what they call the nation’s largest pandemic fraud scheme. More →
- Watch the election live here →
That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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