Miami-Dade County, Florida
- Unemployment rate: 3.1%
- Apartment index: 73.5 (hard)
- Average household income: $67,000
- Earning a bachelor’s degree: 21.3%
- 2020 presidential election margin: Biden +7.4
- 2016 presidential election margin: Clinton +29
Although famous as a flashpoint in the 2000 election, Miami-Dade County has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1988, including Al Gore.
However, Dade has seen the Republican vote share rise in recent years. And during the pandemic, it became home to high-profile Republicans, including Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel, America’s largest hedge fund.
This reflects the evolution of Miami’s economy from a “fun and sun” economy to a slightly more diverse mix of financial firms and a few tech groups. Thanks to increased interest from people seeking Florida’s more lenient pandemic rules, the region’s economy has soared, and today Miami-Dade has the lowest unemployment rate among major metros: just 2.7%.
“The Miami area has very low unemployment,” said University of Miami economist Alex Horenstein. “Many people and companies have moved here. … The economy is good in Miami.”
Still, the area remains heavily dependent on real estate and tourism, along with healthcare. However, while median wages remain relatively low—another reason firms are attracted—Miami now has the worst home prices in the nation.
For Miami-Dade, a buyer would need about $118,000 in income if they put 20% down on a median-priced home.
“To mitigate these high housing costs, we generally need more buildings for rent or for sale,” Horenstein said.
In fact, the crisis is so acute that Dade has seen a large influx of longtime residents, particularly African Americans, in search of cheaper alternatives — though its population is bolstered by its status as an entry point for international migrants in America.
Dane County, Wisconsin (Madison)
- Unemployment rate: 2.6%
- Apartment index: 75.7 (very difficult)
- Average household income: $85,000
- Earning a bachelor’s degree: 32.5%
- 2020 presidential election margin: Biden +7.4
- 2016 presidential election margin: Clinton +53
Though reliably blue, Madison has become a microcosm of Wisconsin’s economic woes: more growth than it can sustain. In particular, Epic, the nation’s most trusted health records management software company, and Exact Sciences, maker of Cologuard, have fueled a hiring boom that has put unprecedented pressure on the region’s housing supply.
The region’s workforce, or areas where the workforce currently resides, “is getting bigger … and spreading into neighboring communities,” said Stephen Deller, distinguished professor in the department of agricultural and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. .
Today, putting 20% down on an average single-family home worth $428,000 with a mortgage rate of 6.85% would require $91,000 in income — putting it in the most expensive 3% of Midwest states.
That changes some of the politics surrounding Madison, Deller said.
“It used to be ‘Madison blue bloods,’ and the village was conservative or Reagan Republican,” Deller said. “But as we see Madison spread, it changes the political dynamic in neighboring communities — with a shift toward the Dem side.” Even heavily Republican precincts are becoming more competitive, he said.