WASHINGTON — An unprecedented summer has turned the presidential race two months before Election Day, with a deadly heat in key states between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump as both candidates prepare for a final showdown after Labor Day. holiday weekend.
A race away from President Joe Biden competition again after he stepped down on July 21 and passed the baton to his vice president, he captured the support of key influence groups, especially young and black voters.
Harris, 59, has turned the issue of age from a potentially fatal liability into an asset for Democrats against the 78-year-old Trump. The former president, who campaigned confidently against Biden, was sometimes angered by Harris. personal and racial attacks against an opponent who would become the first woman to become president and the first Indian American. He deleted them.
“It’s a toss-up,” said Republican strategist Brad Todd, warning that the GOP’s fortunes weren’t as bright when the Democratic nominee was the 81-year-old Biden.
Todd urged Trump to stay focused on defining Harris as the “far-left candidate,” highlighting his positions on health care, energy, immigration and more during the 2020 campaign. Harris has since tried to return to center saying that his “values have not changed”. in the last five years.
“To win, Donald Trump has to hold him accountable for what he says he believes,” he said. “But so far he hasn’t shown much interest in it.”
In the summer of 2024, an unusually early debate that proved fatal to Biden’s already fading re-election hopes featured a series of events unprecedented in modern times, including an assassination attempt against Trump and a GOP convention billed as Trump’s victory party. . Biden took over the race by dropping out, handing over money to Harris, who quickly sealed the nomination, and quickly rose to a dead heat in the polls. The Democratic convention in late August revealed a jubilant and rejuvenated party just before Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ended his independent candidacy and endorsed Trump. Harris and Trump are scheduled for their first one-on-one debate next week on September 10.
‘Mainly a dogfight’
Despite their momentum, Democrats say the race is far from over.
Bill Burton, a political consultant who worked on Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, praised Harris for running a “perfect” campaign so far, saying, “I still think it’s fundamentally a dogfight.”
Burton said it’s hard to imagine this level of Democratic excitement if Biden were still running. “It peaked at exactly the right time,” he said. “As long as he keeps his steering steady, I think he’ll do well.”
Harris leads Trump by 4 points in USA Today/Suffolk request and 2 points in the Wall Street Journal request. Recent polls of key states that Biden narrowly won in 2020 — including Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — show a close race with a narrow Harris edge. In addition to the competitiveness in these “blue wall” states, Harris put the Sun Belt states. GeorgiaArizona, Nevada and North Carolina are back in the game, having moved away from Biden.
In a memo Sunday, Harris campaign chairwoman Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote: “[M]Make no mistake: we go into the final stages of this race as clear underdogs. Donald Trump has a motivated support base that is more supportive and supportive higher affordability More than at any point since 2020.
Burton said Harris still needs to see how to bring home key constituencies, especially Black voters, as Trump tries to steal a slice of young Black men.
“I think some of the support for white voters” in the polls today “is going to be a little superficial and he’s going to have to make up for that,” Burton said.
“Look at the black voters,” he said. “I think that’s where the most opportunity and the most concern is.”
Both candidates are trying to reduce their weaknesses by changing their unpopular positions in the past. Harris rejected left-wing ideas he supported in 2019, such as Medicare for All and decriminalizing immigration. Trump, while bragging about his anti-abortion record, is backing away from his support for federal abortion restrictions and suggesting he won’t try to repeal Obamacare after fighting to do so as president.
A unique dynamic in the race for Congress
The tense presidential race has narrowed the race for Congress, which comes with unique dynamics: Senate majorities are drawn from red states like Ohio and Montana, while House races are drawn from blue states like California and New York.
In a closely divided House, several dozen battleground states are poised to decide which party is in control. The playing field has narrowed dramatically in recent years due to partisan alignments and regional polarization, with urban areas voting Democratic and rural areas Republican.
The “universal ballot” — voters’ preference for which party they want to control Congress — has improved slightly for Democrats since Biden left the party, but remains tight. The Wall Street Journal has Democrats leading by 1 point requestwith 1 point in a Reuters survey and 2 points in the Economist request — all within the margin of error.
The Senate map gave Republicans a golden opportunity to take control even if the Democrats had a strong year. Democrats currently hold 51 seats and have conceded that they will lose West Virginia with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin. That means Republicans could win a majority by defeating Democrats in one of two red states Trump is closing in on: Sen. John Tester of Montana and Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio.
Most public polls show Tester trailing — unlike in 2018, when he led and defeated his GOP challenger — with Brown narrowly ahead.
Todd, a GOP strategist, said 51 seats was a “certainty” and argued the party should aim for a larger majority, such as 53 or 54 seats.
“Jon Tester is literally as dead as a Thanksgiving turkey,” he said.
A national Democrat who works on Senate races countered that, saying, “It’s a close race with a margin of error — the kind of race that Tester has always faced and knows how to win.”
Unlike 2022, when Republicans talked about a red wave and a big majority that famously failed to materialize, some insiders say they’ll settle for even a narrow majority this year.
“The goal is to flip the Senate,” said a GOP strategist who has worked on Senate races. “To that end, Tim Sheehy [in Montana] He is the most important man in the country with Bernie Moreno [in Ohio] also argues”.
There are five ultra-competitive states where Democrats are also defending their seats: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. Polls show that Democrats have a lead on all five candidates, and Republicans admit they are weak on each.
“The growing perception among Republican strategists is that Michigan has the best buying opportunity in the nation, among the purple states,” said GOP strategist Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., referring to the open seat being vacated.
Democrats see glimmers of hope in Florida and Texas, two red-leaning states where Sens. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz are the favorites to stay, though some polls show their leads are narrow.
“If I were a Republican, I would be very concerned about what we’re starting to see in some of the elections in Texas and Florida,” Burton said. Colin Allred of Texas and Debbie Mucarsel Powell of Florida “are running great campaigns … They could very well be defended. [and that] could have prevented them from getting a majority,” he said.