3 big things to watch in the final stretch of the 2024 race: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the policy deskevening bulletin that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News Politics team.

In today’s edition, senior national political correspondent Sahil Kapoor analyzes three key dynamics that will shape the final leg of the 2024 race. Plus, national political reporter Steve Kornacki examines whether polls are re-estimating Donald Trump’s support.

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3 big things to watch in the final phase of 2024 elections

By Sahil Kapoor

Labor Day traditionally marks its unofficial beginning final stretch presidential campaign. With just nine weeks until Election Day, here are three key dynamics in the unprecedented 2024 race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

1. Can Harris keep up the momentum?

In just six weeks, Harris has entered a race that has rapidly pulled away from President Joe Biden and turned it into a dead heat, largely withdrawing support from key Democratic-leaning cohorts, particularly young and black people, who have defected from Biden. voters. His poll surge rejuvenated a party in crisis after the June debate made Biden’s biggest weakness, his age, an insurmountable obstacle. The 59-year-old Harris turned age into an asset against the 78-year-old Trump.

Still, the Harris campaign is telling anyone who will listen that he’s still weak. Bill Burton, a political consultant who worked on Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, said the race was a “dog fight” and praised Harris for running a “perfect” campaign so far.

Republicans say it’s a coin flip. “It’s a shootout,” said GOP strategist Brad Todd, acknowledging that the GOP’s fortunes weren’t as bright when the Democratic nominee was the 81-year-old Biden.

2. Will the next debate be a turning point?

The first Biden-Trump debate turned the race upside down. The first Harris-Trump debate will be held next week on September 10. Will this be another turning point? Trump’s team hopes so, while Harris will look to consolidate his gains when they meet face-to-face.

Frustrated by Trump’s retreat into self-destructive tendencies, GOP allies are imploring him to use the debate as an opportunity to paint Harris as a “far-left candidate” based on his positions as a 2019 presidential candidate. Harris has since tried to return to center saying that his “values ​​have not changed”. in the last five years.

Former President Biden campaigned with confidence when he was his opponent. But he seems rattled by Harris at times personal and racial attacks against an opponent who would become the first woman to become president and the first Indian American. Harris refused to join the attacks or give more oxygen.

3. Unique dynamics in the congressional race

The change in the presidential election also affected the ballot. And this year’s race for Congress comes with a unique dynamic: The majority of the Senate comes from red states like Ohio and Montana, while the House race comes from blue states like California and New York.

In the closely divided House, Democrats slightly improved their numbers in the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they want to control Congress, but it’s still tight.

The Senate map gave Republicans a golden opportunity to take control even with a strong year for Democrats. Democrats currently hold 51 seats and have conceded that they will lose West Virginia with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin. That means Republicans can win a majority by defeating Democrats in one of two red states Trump has won twice and won again: Sen. John Tester of Montana and Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio.

Most public polls show Tester trailing — unlike in 2018, when he led and defeated his GOP challenger — with Brown narrowly ahead.

Are polls underestimating Trump’s support?

By Steve Kornacki

For the third consecutive election, Donald Trump is trailing in the polls as his presidential campaign enters the post-Labor Day phase. For the third consecutive election, the question arises whether this poll underestimates his support.

Nationally, the average of recent major polls has Kamala Harris ahead of Trump by 3 points, 49%-46%. It marks an improvement for Democrats from where the race left off when Joe Biden ran.

But it’s a narrow advantage that’s weakened by the fact that national polls have overwhelmingly shown Democratic strength in 2016 and (especially) in 2020. Here’s what the latest, pre-election national figures look like for the two leading election aggregators — Five thirty eight and RealClearPolitics – compared to actual results:

If national polls show Trump’s support even modestly lower, he would be well-positioned to win the Electoral College, where he has the advantage of a more efficient geographic distribution of support. Even if he misses no votes, Harris’ current 3-point national lead may not give him enough of an Electoral College buffer.

Then there are state level surveys. Quantity and quality vary by state, and the same two aggregators differ slightly in how they process the available data. Here are their averages in their current combat situation:

The overall picture is a super tight battlefield. But on every average, Harris does best in a trio of Great Lakes swing states: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. From an Electoral College perspective, these could be Harris’ keys to the kingdom. If he sweeps them (and hangs on in Omaha, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, where Biden won the electoral vote four years ago), he will have exactly 270 electoral votes.

The thing is, these states were also the source of some of the most dramatic upsets in 2020, with Trump doing better than the polls suggest:

It’s clear that similar mistakes this time around — at least based on current polling — will turn the Great Lakes battlegrounds into the Trump column. And even smaller losses can make it decisively higher in other swing states.

Why Trump’s support was not accurately measured in the last two elections remains an open debate. As noted, there is a geographic component to this, with the largest errors occurring in demographically similar northern states with large populations of blue-collar white voters. The prevailing explanation points to nonresponse bias; The idea that a disproportionate number of Trump supporters from this demographic chose not to participate when contacted by pollsters.

Whether pollsters solve this puzzle is one of the biggest variables over the next two months, adding uncertainty to every new poll that comes out. Relatedly, there’s also the possibility that this election will result in an entirely different type of election — one that turns out to be Harris’s advantage, not Trump’s. Otherwise there will be no misses and the surveys will prove unusual. The answer will not be known until election night.

That’s all for the Policy Desk for now. If you have feedback – like it or not – send us an email politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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